Alistair Haimes Profile picture
Account no longer monitored

Sep 18, 2020, 9 tweets

1. Cases

1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.

Source: Gov dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…

1. Cases

1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%

Source: PHE covid surveillance report
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

2. Care home outbreaks

*Critical data*. In week 37 there were 10x more outbreaks in care homes than in food outlets and restaurants; interventions targeted at the latter would be pointless.

Source: weekly PHE report as above

3. Hospital deaths and admissions

Deaths from NHS England stats: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…

Admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?are…

4. Triage

111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+

Thrown off this week by school / college kids seeking tests, but already falling back. No significant increase in 70+

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…

5. Incidence / prevalence

Infection rate increasing in the young, but not in the elderly. Fantastic news - the faster the virus passes through the young / healthy, the sooner it will pass over the elderly / vulnerable.

Still *far* below epidemic level

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

6. Mortality

COVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

7. Miscellaneous

7.1 *Huge* spike in rhinovirus (colds) diagnoses this week, couldn't have come at a worse time for worried parents to confuse with covid symptoms, hence the strain on testing

Source: covid surveillance report

7. Miscellaneous

7.2 Contact tracing still seems to mostly take the place of positive test recipients just telling their housemates and guests they tested positive!

Source: PHE surveillance report

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