This is Toby Young (@toadmeister)'s response to my piece in the @spectator, which he very fairly follows by a frontline account from an in-house senior doctor in London.
ONS: Incidence now up to 35k per day, 0.9% overall; huge variance regionally and by age group, with young getting infected *much* faster than old (good news), and this is backed up by Zoe (KCL/CSS) data: (
My experience of contact tracing.
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My daughter was sent home from school to isolate Tuesday morning, following a positive test by her teacher (who had been isolating since Friday).
She rapidly developed (moderate) fever and kept falling asleep (fine now), so was tested /1
This was 2.30pm Tuesday.
Result came through 10pm Thursday; within half an hour we had phoned all contacts (piano teacher, school, houseguests, other direct contacts).
Contact tracers phoned us 17 hours later (Friday afternoon); we gave them all the same information. /2
Oct 17, 2020 • 13 tweets • 11 min read
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:
1. Incidence 2. Care home outbreaks 3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths 4. Covid triage 5. Cases 6. Contact tracing 7. Mortality 8. Miscellaneous: nosocomial
The headline is that during the most recent week (18 to 24 September) there were around 8,400 new infections per day not including those living in institutional settings, *down* from 9,600 previous week.
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
"The scrutiny provided by our legislature was absent when it was most required.
The social costs of lockdown are extraordinary: the burden of proof for every day it was maintained should have been more extraordinary still. +
"It should never have been down to a cabinet, let alone the coronavirus quad or a poorly prime minister, to decide when rights we have taken for granted since Magna Carta should be restored: their suspension should have needed justifying daily, with the bar set high. +
Sep 18, 2020 • 9 tweets • 8 min read
1. Cases
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%
On Friday evenings I'm going to release a thread like this on English covid data that I think is useful / reliable. If you don't want to follow the rest of my ranting, the # will be #ahcveng
• Cases: pillar 1
• Care home outbreaks
• Hospital deaths & admissions
• Sundry
1. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive
1. Cases
