Thread by @HEDanielClark

Another week, and here's the latest round-up of coronavirus figures across Devon and Cornwall, and the number of cases confirmed has risen this week, but only just, with the total up just 1 on last week's number, and in Devon alone, has fallen

Government statistics show that 155 new cases have been confirmed across the region in the past seven days in both pillar 1 data from tests carried out by the NHS and pillar 2 data from commercial partners, compared to 15 new cases confirmed last week.

The number of new cases confirmed in Cornwall has doubled, going from 30 to 60, while Plymouth has seen a small rise from 39 to 45. But in Torbay, cases have fallen dramatically from 12 to 2, while in the Devon County Council area, they have dropped from 71 to 48.

Of the 155 new cases, 60 were in Cornwall, with 9 in East Devon, 12 in Exeter, 4 in Mid Devon, 4 in North Devon, 45 in Plymouth, 4 in the South Hams, 7 in Teignbridge, 2 in Torbay, 6 in Torridge, and 2 in West Devon.

East Devon, Exeter, North Devon, the South Hams, and Teignbridge have seen a fall in cases confirmed compared to the previous week, while Mid Devon, Torridge and West Devon were unchanged.

However, not all of the 155 cases related to specimen dates from the last week. 98 of the cases have a specimen date of between Sep 11 and Sep 17, with the majority of the remaining 57 cases being from September 7-10, with the most ancient cases dating back to September 4.

Of the 99 of the cases between Sep 11 and Sep 17, 45 of Cornwall cases occurred in that period, with 8 in East Devon, 5 in Exeter, 4 in Mid Devon, 1 in North Devon, 2 in the South Hams, 3 in Teignbridge, 24 in Plymouth, 1 in Torbay, 3 in Torridge, and in West Devon.

By specimen date, the most recent case in Cornwall, Torbay, Plymouth, East Devon, the South Hams and Teignbridge is September 16, is September 15 for Torridge, September 14 for Exeter, and September 13 for Mid Devon, North Devon and West Devon.

While further cases are likely to be added in upcoming days, cases by specimen date across Devon, Torbay, and Plymouth, have been trending down from the numbers from tests last week, and NHS 111 triages continue to drop, falling by a further five per cent in D and C today

While there have been issues with people getting tests in the region, Devon County Council say 8500 tests were carried out this week, compared to 6500 the previous week, and of those tested, only 0.3 per cent of the tests returned a positive result.

And further good news for the region from the PHE weekly surveillance report, which has Torbay as the area in England with the lowest level of coronavirus cases in the most recent week, and Devon the second lowest. Plymouth and Cornwall also well below any watchlist level

Of the cases with a specimen date of between September 8 to 14, there are currently nine clusters where three of more cases have been confirmed in a Middle Super Output Area – two in Devon, three in Plymouth, and four in Cornwall.

There is a cluster of 3 cases in Clyst, Exton and Lympstone in East Devon, 6 in Pennsylvania and University in Exeter, 3 in Deer Park & Leigham, 7 in Derriford and Estover, and 13 in Mutley in Plymouth, and 3 in St Germans & St Mellion, 3 in Launceston, 5 in Redruth North...

and 22 in Kingsand, Antony & Maryfield in Cornwall. The latter is believed to be linked to an outbreak relating to HMS Raleigh. Every other MSOA region of Devon and Cornwall – small patches of around 7,200 average population – have had two or fewer cases in that time period

However, despite the rise in cases across the region, the number of people in hospital with coronavirus has continued to remain relatively low. In the South West, the figure has risen from 13 as of last Friday to 15 as of today, with only two patients on ventilation.

The R Rate for the South West is now being estimated as between 0.9 and 1.6, up from 0.9 – 1.6 as of last week, and as it covers a large geographical area and the wide spread of figures, means it is completely meaningless in terms of any any policy decisions

In total, Torridge has had 70 positive cases, West Devon 80, with 127 in the South Hams, 147 in North Devon, 239 in Mid Devon, 247 in Teignbridge, 283 in East Devon, 303 in Exeter, 320 in Torbay, 838 in Plymouth and 1086 in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.

Torridge remains the place in England with the lowest overall positivity rate, 3rd in the overall table, with West Devon is 7th, the South Hams 8th, North Devon 9th, Teignbridge 12 th , Cornwall 13th, East Devon 15th, Exeter 23rd, Torbay 26th, Mid Devon 47th and Plymouth 60th

While there have been some schools whereby positive cases have been reported, they can (I think) across the two counties still be counted on one hand, and none of the cases yet appear to have spread out into community on a wider scale

Obviously a lot of talk about a 'second lockdown' or whatever measures the Government come up with to try and tackle the national rise in cases, but there's nothing in any of the figures to suggest that any of the measures being rumoured would be needed in Devon and Cornwall

While there has been a small rise in cases, it remains at a very low level, and while partly could be explained by testing issues, cases in Devon are actually falling. Certainly any second lockdown measures for Devon at the moment would be disproportionate to the evidence

Of course that could change - but there's still nothing yet that indicates across Devon and Cornwall there is a significant problem, with cases staying comparatively flat and low, no noticeable rises in hospitalisations, 111 data trending down, and very few, if any, new deaths

As always, the figures are only based on positive tests, and there probably are more cases out there. But if we take the 0.3 per cent positive rate for Devon as estimate that would be the same for those who cannot get tested, we wouldn't see a huge rise in new cases

Definitely feels a bit like the South West and in particular Devon and Cornwall, are almost in a different country to what is happening elsewhere. Of course things here could change, but certainly no need yet to panic, or to call for any further lockdown measures to be introduced

Of course, this should have said 154 new cases confirmed last week, not 15 new cases.

Indeed - the latest ONS estimates for the whole of the South West are that 0.05 per cent of the population would test positive - exactly the same figure that they estimated mid-August. While cases are rising elsewhere, ONS estimates see the South West staying flat

This should have said two hands, not one hand

Saturday's figures show 19 new coronavirus cases (well actually 21) confirmed across Devon and Cornwall. Nine cases in Cornwall (five from Sep 17, two Sep 15, two Sep 14), one in Mid Devon (Sep 17), one in North Devon (Sep 17)...

one in the South Hams (Sep 2), one in Teignbridge (Sep 18), six in Plymouth (Sep 17, two from Sep 16, and three from Sep 15). Two cases in Torbay as well (Sep 16 and 18), but two historical duplicates from Torbay have been removed, so the overall total stays the same.

Hospital figures for the South West have been updated today, which hasn't happened for last few weekends, and the number of people in hospital has risen from 15 to 19 - the highest figure since August 23 - but those in intensive care have dropped from 2 to 1

No new additions to the MSOA maps, that now cover Sep 9-15, but St Germans & St Mellion falls off now that Sep 8 cases are removed. The other clusters remain the same, although size in Pennsylvania & University, Mutley, and Redruth North have dropped

Sunday's figures show 41 new coronavirus cases across Devon and Cornwall - but with 26 of the cases in Cornwall (12 from Sep 18, 8 from Sep 17, 5 from Sep 16, and 1 from Sep 14). Would appear to be linked to an outbreak at Pilgrim’s Pride Ltd food factory in Pool, near Redruth

Late on Friday it was reported that there were a small number" of confirmed cases of COVID-19 at the factory, and given the specimen dates for the most of the confirmed cases today (Thursday or Friday), would make sense if these were the contact traced cases being caught

Across Devon, 4 cases in Exeter (Sep 15, 17, 18 and 18), 1 in Mid Devon (Sep 17), 2 in South Hams (Sep 15 and 18), 1 in Teignbridge (Sep 15), 1 in West Devon (Sep 17), 4 in Plymouth (Sep 15, 18, 18, 19), and 2 in Torbay (Sep 15 and one from Aug, as other Sep figures unchanged)

MSOA maps now cover Sep 10-16, and two changes, both in Plymouth. Deer Park and Leigham falls off with Sep 9 cases removed, but Peverell, with a cluster of 3 is added. The Cornwall cases from Sep 17 will appear tomorrow - so will see if and where there is a cluster

Hospital figures for the South West have risen again, now up to 24, from 19 as of yesterday, to highest figure since Aug 16. Still only one person in intensive care. For context, back in March/April, hospital figures were rising by 30-50 a day, rather than 4-5 as have been now

Seven day average across the two counties has risen with the new cases in Cornwall, but if we only look at Devon (and include Plymouth and Torbay), then the average for new cases confirmed and by specimen date is dropping