Prof. Christina Pagel - @chrischirp.bsky.social Profile picture
Prof Operational Research @UCL_CORU, health care, women in STEM. Member of @independentsage. chrischirp at bluesky. https://t.co/nNW5zMeVmA

Sep 20, 2020, 10 tweets

THREAD: The latest @PHE_uk weekly surveillance report makes for sobering reading - here are some key things that have not yet been widely reported - inc care homes & inequality. Please read and share! (whole report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) 1/9

Linked tweet shows that increases have been mainly in 20-29 & 30-39 ages but spreading to older groups.
BUT this shows that it's spreading most in most deprived areas - where people are in poorly paid work & housing & can't afford to isolate. 2/9

Meanwhile this graph shows *again* that those seriously ill with COVID (needing ICU) are disproportionately from BME communities. COVID loves inequality. 3/9

Hospitalisations are increasing in most places, but unsurprisingly mostly where infections are highest - the warning is that the more we let COVID spread, the more hospitalisations will follow (and, eventually, deaths). 4/9

Then there are institutional outbreaks: there were large jumps in 2nd week of September for care homes: 35 -> 228 COVID confirmed! We *can't* let this happen again! Schools and workplaces going up too... 5/9

Digging into the educational settings, we can see that outbreaks are mostly secondary schools but quite a few primary too. Expect college / university share to go up over the next few weeks! 6/9

Then onto contact tracing. Most common ways of getting COVID: from people you live with (#1); from people visiting you & you visiting them (#2&4); Leisure (inc pubs/restaurants) (#3). The things we like the most are also the most risky :-( but this explains restrictions 7/9

Then, there's a cold virus going around! This is partly why the testing system is under such strain since there are many overlap symptoms with COVID. BUT cold viruses always have a spike start of school year so we *should* have been prepared. 8/9

So to sum up, once again inequality is biting: deprived areas, BME communities & care homes are all feeling the impact. The difference this time is that we KNEW all of this from the first wave. It's unforgiveable if we just let it all happen again. 9/9

PS massive thanks to @cfinnecy for highlighting many of these things to me on Friday and suggesting I do a thread!

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