There is actually a very interesting dynamic being set up. Follow me a second. According to the released terms of the deal, it seems like multiple parties (if the terms are believed) drove hard bargains. TikTok raises the valuation and maintains significant direct ownership 1/n
And does US IPO. That's great for them. Given the circumstances that's a good deal. US gets total access to source code, algorithms, data localization & security etc. That's what they wanted. Oracle and Walmart get into rapidly growing sector that seems to complement their 2/n
Underlying businesses of cloud, payments, and retail well. The VCs and princelings get a great short term exit strategy. All parties are getting a significant piece of what they wanted out of this deal. You can just tell I'm leading up to something can't you. 3/n
We have not heard anything from Beijing and they seemed to tee this entire situation up to give themselves veto. I cannot imagine any situation where Beijing is going to be happy about losing technical control over this data trove and access. The question then becomes 4/n
Whether Beijing blows this up. Maybe yes, maybe no. I have no idea. There are a lot of details to go so I'm generally still withholding judgement
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