1/ Will disputes over Nov 3rd divide America further?
A short thread summarizing what we know from research about risks of contentious elections, drawn from our 2015 Routledge book:
2/ 'Contentious elections’ are defined as contests involving major challenges, with different degrees of severity, to the legitimacy of electoral actors, procedures, or outcomes.
Here's the model we used to identify successive steps in the process...
3/ Evidence is needed to diagnose underlying symptoms...
4/ The risks of electoral violence are expected to be highest in hybrid regimes...lacking the deep legitimacy of established liberal democracies and also the willingness to deploy state coercion typical in repressive autocracies.
5/ This is indeed what we observed with the data:
6/ Though many factors contributed...especially the role of electoral procedures and impartial administration (see next for coding and measures)
7/ Coding and measures in the above...
8/ Finally, in 2014, we measured contentious elections cross-nationally, with the US rated low.
9/ But this is 2020, not 2014. US disputes are expected to deepen further after Nov 3, generating protests and endless court challenges.
The $64,0000 question is whether America becomes even more destabilized and polarized.
I hope for the best. And fear the worst.
10/ PS For the latest research, add this one to your booklist as well...
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