No 10’s Superforecasting:
“The expression on the face of Number 10 is that of a man who never looks where he is going and is then constantly surprised to find that he has stepped in dog excrement.”
👏👏 @andrewrawnsley theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
“The worst forecasters were those with great self-confidence who stuck to their big ideas,” wrote Mr Cummings himself. They are lousy at understanding the world and coming to good judgments about it.”
Sounds awfully familiar
“The more successful were those who were cautious, humble, numerate, actively open-minded, looked at many points of view.”
That sounds a lot less familiar.
“Johnson has spent a career living for today and letting tomorrow take care of itself...over promising and under delivering”
In fact there has been a super forecasting failure in the Conservative Party as a whole, and in the voting public.
Everyone knew what he was like.
But somehow they were unable to connect that knowledge to the foreseeable outcomes (without much in the way of super powers at all)
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