As SAGE points out, 187 admissions is 4 doublings away from Apr 2020 peak and less than 5 from Jan 2021 peak.
At 9 day doubling, that's *5 to 7* weeks from now - just after new July step 4 date.
Johnson Brilliance
“The next ten days are mostly locked in from recent case rises. That means in 10 days we will likely see over 250 hospital admissions a day (using 4% relationship as approx estimate).”
Just when you think you’ve got it beat, Covid-19 somehow comes back stronger. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger but without the charm this Terminator of a virus has an “I’ll be back” menace that risks undoing all the hard work of the UK’s stunning vaccine rollout huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/will-joh…
Fluffing his lines, the PM referred to “the adults of this company” (he meant “country”) and then wrongly declared the new unlocking date was July 29th (correcting it later to July 19th).
Polling shows most of the public are relaxed about a delay, but Johnson is acutely aware that the 24% who are unhappy include several of his own backbenchers, and it showed
I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )
The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.
The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.
So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.
🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)
What a surprise. Daniel Kawczynski (who is now trying to play the victim, claiming bullying!) demonstrated a complete lack of insight into his conduct, according to the official report.
He claimed one of the complainants was “a member of the snowflake generation” used language that was extreme, but not profane and appeared to be under the influence of alcohol in one of the conversations.
The complainants also said he lied in a WhatsApp group message about the incidents.
Budget watchdog announces cost of Brexit at £1,200 for each person in Britain - Mirror Online
Oh. If an household consists of 2 adults & 2 children, then that is more than the Treasury 2016 pre referendum estimate of £4,300 per household mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Here you are. To be fair the lower bound rate is £1300 per capita.
But over 15 years.
Yet here we are.
2021 and only 5 months out of the transition period and 1 yr 5m after we left.
When viruses jump to humans it would be "very rare for them to be a perfect," said Prof Wendy Barclay, Imperial College virologist. "They settle in and then they have a great time."
“There are examples of viruses from flu pandemics to Ebola making the jump and then accelerating.”
“It's "foolish", @ArisKatzourakis , “to attempt to put a number on how high it could go”, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. “Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.”
"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out."
“Domestically (Johnson) has taken to new heights the art of being forgivable. So does it matter that in Cornwall he’s in the company of a handful of foreign leaders whose votes he doesn’t need?” thetimes.co.uk/article/our-cl…
“Yes, because Britain needs their trust and, for now, Boris is Britain. He does not inspire that trust. Northern Ireland is perhaps the first example of why this matters. It will not be the last.”
Oh the insults Johnson (& his mates) have dished out as our stock in the eyes of the world (& literally) diminishes
Play nice together | Lewis Baston | The Critic Magazine
“A sensible party system for Britain probably wouldn’t have the Labour or Conservative parties. There would be a socialist party, a leftish Green party, a greenish NIMBY party,… thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-20…
“.. a working class “fund the NHS, hang the paedos” party, a social democratic and liberal party, a right of centre liberal pro-business party, a national-conservative party, secessionist nationalist parties and some flotsam and jetsam to the right of the nat-cons. “
Such a realignment would be liberating: we’d no longer have to share a party with people we despise for the sake of winning an election — though both main parties are sweaty, overcrowded political omnibuses, there are also several tribes crammed into the Lib Dems’ creaking Mini.
“In March 2012 the Sunday Times published a rather mean piece about him which included the claim that (as the Court put it) “in return for cash donations to the Conservative Party, goodlawproject.org/news/handing-o…
“[he] corruptly offered for sale the opportunity to influence government policy and gain unfair advantage through secret meetings with the Prime Minister and other senior ministers.”
He sued the Sunday Times for defamation and, to be fair to him, he won but the Court of Appeal also said the claim above was substantially true. As a candidate for a great honour you would think he was, well, you would think he was an odd one.
“Boris Johnson, Britain’s freewheeling, clownish prime minister, is about to play host…Story by story, scandal by scandal, Mr. Johnson has been exposed as a slapdash, venal, incompetent leader.
But it doesn’t seem to matter.” nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opi…
(Cummings’) “revelations came against a backdrop of reports exposing the Conservatives’ dodgy dealings during the pandemic: Covid-19 contracts worth billions of pounds going to friends of Conservative lawmakers with no experience in the health sector,…
“business tycoons with direct lines to the prime minister to push their interests and a lavish renovation of the prime minister’s residence at Downing Street that involved a secret donation by a Tory backer…
WHISTLEBLOWER Matt Hancock ‘Suppressing’ COVID Data from Gov Depts
🔥🔥🔥 DHSC” basically responded by saying: let’s release some information, but keep it vague and release it alongside everything else to make the situation look not as bad as it is.” bylinetimes.com/2021/06/10/mat…
NB “...To make the situation not look as bad as it is”‼️
Asked about Hancock’s role in this decision, the source said: “That decision came from him personally.”
There’s more....
Can’t see Hancock hanging on much longer if this is true . ( Frantic Gov denials)
He’s not just trying to gaslight the public but also said to be limiting scientific data including re cases, case rates, hospitalisations, capacity coming from PHE going to other Government Departments.
Even to the Cabinet Office. Sniffs air. Gove sticking the knife in?
In 2010 when she stood for election in Hastings she was surprised how many turned up for an event about giving a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty- swamped- compared to ones where she expected high engagement :- Local hospital - 4 people; local schools- 3 people
Early warning
As for the the campaign.
Had Labour had a different leader other than Corbyn how much better the campaign would have been.
This 🧵 from @Dr_D_Robertson is a really good explanation about how to interpret the relationship between cases and hospitalisation, preferably early on.
Worth linking it to @AdamJKucharski 🧵 today on how long cases could continue to rise, and how they, combined with the holes in our vaccination programme and immunity defences can drive hospitalisations.
Also this from Chile that has an advanced vaccination programme yet still COVID (more ALPHA and P1 than DELTA variant to date) has found large holes in its immunity defences
For those curious about the DELTA AY.1 sub-variant. This is the so called Nepal variant which Hancock thought we did not have. Small numbers but we have 35 (+11 other possibles). First identified here on 26 April.
No vaccine specific performance data yet re number of infections, hospitalisations, ICUs & deaths.
May be complicated due to cohorts given Pfizer v AZ
The number of Delta variant cases across the UK has increased by 70% – from 12,341 last week to 42,323 this week
@CovidCourier I’m afraid we seem to have reverted to blanked out tweets from you. Too sensitive. No idea why this happens in tweets from you and a couple of others.
It has used nearly 23 mill vaccines doses - 17.2 mill Sinovac, 4.6 mill Pfizer /BioNTech's, and less than 1 mill each of AstraZeneca's & CanSino's.
Driving the fierce second wave is lockdown fatigue, the appearance of more contagious variants & time for vaccine to take effect.
Of course vaccinations do not offer complete protection, especially against some more contagious variants including DELTA in the U.K. that accounts for over 90% of sequenced samples.
Experts suggest that this rate of growth suggests c60% greater transmissability.
72 added to My Authors
