Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
Retired lawyer. Cooking & good food, books, conversation, dancing, music. Forever European.
LittleGravitas 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE, #FBPA, #FBPR Profile picture SocialMediaWarriorForABlueAmerica Profile picture Chris🌟 #FBPPR #RejoinEU #FBPE💙 Profile picture Hugh 3.5% 🕷 #FBPE Profile picture Adam Smithee Profile picture 72 added to My Authors
15 Jun
🔥We have seen cases double every 9 days or so recently. We can expect hospital admissions to do so as well.

96 people with Covid were admitted on 4th June. 9 days later, on 13th June, 187 people were admitted - almost double.
As SAGE points out, 187 admissions is 4 doublings away from Apr 2020 peak and less than 5 from Jan 2021 peak.

At 9 day doubling, that's *5 to 7* weeks from now - just after new July step 4 date.

Johnson Brilliance
“The next ten days are mostly locked in from recent case rises. That means in 10 days we will likely see over 250 hospital admissions a day (using 4% relationship as approx estimate).”

Then what?

What’s changed?

People I know are much more sociable.
Read 7 tweets
15 Jun
🦠 7673 new cases. (⬆️ 38.8% on rolling 7 day averages)

ENGLAND positivity rate ⬆️ again. Now 2.3%. It isn’t more testing. LFT testing is generally down.

⚰️ 10 (28 day) deaths.

💉368.5k doses administered.

I shall look at hospital data separately as headline figures old.
🏥 admissions data - all 4 nations dates back to 9th June: 184 ENGLAND alone exceeded that with 187 admissions on Sunday 13th.

🛌 IN HOSPITAL: The last 4 nations data was on Sunday but since then England has increased from 947 to 1030. 83 more.

1214 taking most recent
ICU 🛌 England alone 187 today

With an additional 18 from Scotland and Wales yesterday.

So over 200. Definite move upwards.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Just when you think you’ve got it beat, Covid-19 somehow comes back stronger. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger but without the charm this Terminator of a virus has an “I’ll be back” menace that risks undoing all the hard work of the UK’s stunning vaccine rollout huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/will-joh…
Fluffing his lines, the PM referred to “the adults of this company” (he meant “country”) and then wrongly declared the new unlocking date was July 29th (correcting it later to July 19th).
Polling shows most of the public are relaxed about a delay, but Johnson is acutely aware that the 24% who are unhappy include several of his own backbenchers, and it showed
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
Late yesterday PHE released a new chart regarding vaccine efficacy.

Welcome that it displayed data separately for Pfizer and AZ and fir Alpha and Delta variants

However the outcomes are markedly different from the table c3 weeks ago and markedly different from the Scottish data
This is the chart and the link.

khub.net/web/phe-nation…

It is a pre print so there pay be changes.

Also not much in the way of supporting data (with wide confidence intervals

They suggest similar second dose efficacy AGAINST HOSPITALISATION Pfizer (96%) to AZ (92%)
In fact marginally better 2nd dose performance against delta than Alpha.

But we know nothing of the respective cohorts or numbers involved, age groups and timescales and it seems prudent to wait for that.
Read 18 tweets
14 Jun
I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )

The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.

The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.

So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.

🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)

⚰️& deaths - but not by a lot, except 2-dose
Read 18 tweets
14 Jun
🦠 7742 new cases (36%⬆️ on same day last week, 45.5% on rolling 7 day average)

Worth noting that Monday - Friday of last week every day was over 7k cases by specimen date. Wednesday a few cases off 8k.

It isn’t more testing.

ENGLAND positivity it up again. 2.2%.
🏥 data is very laggy with last complete day on admissions being Tuesday 8th June.

But IN hospital data for England indicates a steady climb from 860 a week ago to 993 today. ⬆️. A 15.6% increase

ICU 🛌 133 to 170 in the same period. ⬆️ A 27.8% increase.
💉 277k doses of vaccinations given in total.

A a bit Meh given the place we are in - but clinics have been working long and busy hours.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
What a surprise. Daniel Kawczynski (who is now trying to play the victim, claiming bullying!) demonstrated a complete lack of insight into his conduct, according to the official report.
He claimed one of the complainants was “a member of the snowflake generation” used language that was extreme, but not profane and appeared to be under the influence of alcohol in one of the conversations.
The complainants also said he lied in a WhatsApp group message about the incidents.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
Budget watchdog announces cost of Brexit at £1,200 for each person in Britain - Mirror Online

Oh. If an household consists of 2 adults & 2 children, then that is more than the Treasury 2016 pre referendum estimate of £4,300 per household mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Here you are. To be fair the lower bound rate is £1300 per capita.

But over 15 years.

Yet here we are.

2021 and only 5 months out of the transition period and 1 yr 5m after we left.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
OBR says real business investment has barely grown since the referendum, whereas the March 2016 forecast was fir 20% growth.
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
When viruses jump to humans it would be "very rare for them to be a perfect," said Prof Wendy Barclay, Imperial College virologist. "They settle in and then they have a great time."
“There are examples of viruses from flu pandemics to Ebola making the jump and then accelerating.”
“It's "foolish", @ArisKatzourakis , “to attempt to put a number on how high it could go”, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. “Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.”
"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out."
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
🦠 7738 new cases. Even by specimen date there have been 3 x 7k+ days on the trot and likely another 7k+ day when all results in.

⚰️ 60 day deaths (21) nearly double 28 day deaths (12)

💉 488k vaccination doses given

🏥 admissions UP -187 on 8-6-21.

ICU 🛌 UP -158 on 10-6-21
🦠. Cases just before relaxation of measures on 17-5-21 : 1852

7th, 8th, 9th May all over 7,600 and 10th likely to be similar when all swabs processed.

That has quadrupled in 4 weeks.
🏥 admissions were at 78 on 16-5-21. Now at 187.

More than doubled and hospitalisations lag cases.
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
Our closest allies no longer trust Boris Johnson

“Domestically (Johnson) has taken to new heights the art of being forgivable. So does it matter that in Cornwall he’s in the company of a handful of foreign leaders whose votes he doesn’t need?”
thetimes.co.uk/article/our-cl…
“Yes, because Britain needs their trust and, for now, Boris is Britain. He does not inspire that trust. Northern Ireland is perhaps the first example of why this matters. It will not be the last.”
Oh the insults Johnson (& his mates) have dished out as our stock in the eyes of the world (& literally) diminishes
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
Play nice together | Lewis Baston | The Critic Magazine

“A sensible party system for Britain probably wouldn’t have the Labour or Conservative parties. There would be a socialist party, a leftish Green party, a greenish NIMBY party,… thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-20…
“.. a working class “fund the NHS, hang the paedos” party, a social democratic and liberal party, a right of centre liberal pro-business party, a national-conservative party, secessionist nationalist parties and some flotsam and jetsam to the right of the nat-cons. “
Such a realignment would be liberating: we’d no longer have to share a party with people we despise for the sake of winning an election — though both main parties are sweaty, overcrowded political omnibuses, there are also several tribes crammed into the Lib Dems’ creaking Mini.
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
Handing out peerages - Good Law Project

“In March 2012 the Sunday Times published a rather mean piece about him which included the claim that (as the Court put it) “in return for cash donations to the Conservative Party, goodlawproject.org/news/handing-o…
“[he] corruptly offered for sale the opportunity to influence government policy and gain unfair advantage through secret meetings with the Prime Minister and other senior ministers.”
He sued the Sunday Times for defamation and, to be fair to him, he won but the Court of Appeal also said the claim above was substantially true. As a candidate for a great honour you would think he was, well, you would think he was an odd one.

On the other hand, he is Very Rich.
Read 12 tweets
12 Jun
How other countries see us:

“Boris Johnson, Britain’s freewheeling, clownish prime minister, is about to play host…Story by story, scandal by scandal, Mr. Johnson has been exposed as a slapdash, venal, incompetent leader.
But it doesn’t seem to matter.”
nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opi…
(Cummings’) “revelations came against a backdrop of reports exposing the Conservatives’ dodgy dealings during the pandemic: Covid-19 contracts worth billions of pounds going to friends of Conservative lawmakers with no experience in the health sector,…
“business tycoons with direct lines to the prime minister to push their interests and a lavish renovation of the prime minister’s residence at Downing Street that involved a secret donation by a Tory backer…
Read 19 tweets
11 Jun
Onwards and upwards (in a very bad way).

🦠8125 cases ⬆️⬆️
(By swab date, remembering that results still to be added to recent days) 7th 8th & 9th June all over 7k and likely to rise higher.

⚰️ 17 (28 day) deaths ⬆️⬆️

🏥 admissions 173 ⬆️⬆️

💉 510k vaccination doses
Positivity rates in England steadily rising every day now. 1.9% overall

But is several places over 5% . Some hovering around 10% and Blackburn with Darwen 15%.
Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
WHISTLEBLOWER Matt Hancock ‘Suppressing’ COVID Data from Gov Depts

🔥🔥🔥 DHSC” basically responded by saying: let’s release some information, but keep it vague and release it alongside everything else to make the situation look not as bad as it is.”
bylinetimes.com/2021/06/10/mat…
NB “...To make the situation not look as bad as it is”‼️

Asked about Hancock’s role in this decision, the source said: “That decision came from him personally.”

There’s more....

Can’t see Hancock hanging on much longer if this is true . ( Frantic Gov denials)
He’s not just trying to gaslight the public but also said to be limiting scientific data including re cases, case rates, hospitalisations, capacity coming from PHE going to other Government Departments.

Even to the Cabinet Office. Sniffs air. Gove sticking the knife in?
Read 7 tweets
11 Jun
Lots of fascinating behind the scenes insights from @AmberRuddUK
In the PRE Brexit ref and post referendum period.
In 2010 when she stood for election in Hastings she was surprised how many turned up for an event about giving a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty- swamped- compared to ones where she expected high engagement :- Local hospital - 4 people; local schools- 3 people

Early warning
As for the the campaign.

Had Labour had a different leader other than Corbyn how much better the campaign would have been.

Agreed
Read 11 tweets
11 Jun
This 🧵 from @Dr_D_Robertson is a really good explanation about how to interpret the relationship between cases and hospitalisation, preferably early on.

Before it is too late.

Again.
Worth linking it to @AdamJKucharski 🧵 today on how long cases could continue to rise, and how they, combined with the holes in our vaccination programme and immunity defences can drive hospitalisations.
Also this from Chile that has an advanced vaccination programme yet still COVID (more ALPHA and P1 than DELTA variant to date) has found large holes in its immunity defences
Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
📌 23 deaths in the unvaccinated

📌19 in the 1 & 2 dose vaccinated
(7 = 1-dose +21 days; 12 = 2-dose + 14 days)

📌 So 2 dosed + 14 days vaccinated approximately half the deaths of the unvaccinated

More granular data by age and also vaccination type would be very welcome.
For those curious about the DELTA AY.1 sub-variant. This is the so called Nepal variant which Hancock thought we did not have. Small numbers but we have 35 (+11 other possibles). First identified here on 26 April.
Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
Delta variant around 60% more transmissible than Alpha, PHE data

⚰️ 42 (28 day) deaths :-

📌 23 were unvaccinated

📌 7 were more than 21 days after 1st dose

📌12 were more than 14 days after 2nd dose.

60 day deaths often x2 - x3 ⚰️28 day deaths
itv.com/news/2021-06-1…
No vaccine specific performance data yet re number of infections, hospitalisations, ICUs & deaths.

May be complicated due to cohorts given Pfizer v AZ

The number of Delta variant cases across the UK has increased by 70% – from 12,341 last week to 42,323 this week
@CovidCourier I’m afraid we seem to have reverted to blanked out tweets from you. Too sensitive. No idea why this happens in tweets from you and a couple of others.

I don’t have sensitive settings.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jun
Chile shuts capital Santiago once more despite very high vaccine rates still failing to quell rampant cases. - The Straits Times

Around 75% of its 15 mill residents have been 1-dosed, & c. 58% 2-dosed.

98% of the capital’s ICU beds are full. straitstimes.com/world/chile-sh…
It has used nearly 23 mill vaccines doses - 17.2 mill Sinovac, 4.6 mill Pfizer /BioNTech's, and less than 1 mill each of AstraZeneca's & CanSino's.

Driving the fierce second wave is lockdown fatigue, the appearance of more contagious variants & time for vaccine to take effect.
Of course vaccinations do not offer complete protection, especially against some more contagious variants including DELTA in the U.K. that accounts for over 90% of sequenced samples.

Experts suggest that this rate of growth suggests c60% greater transmissability.
Read 5 tweets