Thread by @gbponz

Thread: first impressions on #Italian elections and #Referendum. @jeuasommenulle @amlivemon @nglinsman
@RobertMCutler .
Of course these are tentative numbers, but apparently the Constitutional change has been passed. THIS was the key part of today's vote . (1/9)

The opposition to the change managed to reach over 40%, and above all to mount a credible threat to the Government's design to freeze the present parliament in place until its expiry, in order to ensure it will nominate the next Republic president. (2/9)

In Italy, the President is not as central as in France, but it's quite far from the largely ceremonial figure of other countries. He IS the link between the all powerful Judiciary, which is indipendent from political or democratic control, and the true levers of power. (3/9)

Few people in Italy or elsewhere, for example, know that he sat on the court who decided that Italy is not bound to pay back to taxpayers past undue tax found unconstitutional. bit.ly/2RIdrWE (4/9)

Given that the modification leaves Italy WITHOUT a functioning election mechanism in case of crisis, coupled with the obvious unwillingness of present place holders to facilitate that, I can easily forecast that the Presidency will remain to the Left for another 9 years.(5/9)

That is the sum of the remaining 2 years of the mandate plus 7 years of the one they will pick. Expect a continuation of present (and past) political trends, in terms of foreign and domestic policy.(6/9)

This is unfortunate since IMHO those policies didn't work and are unlikely to work in the future, but hey! I just play the piano. It was a long shot anyway, and it was the only battle worth fighting for an ant size person like me. (7/9)

The Regional vote is still contended in places, but the Left lost Marche, and it's still a bit of a toss up in Tuscany, their fortress, even if it's likely they will keep it. In all, nothing to write home about, apart from an old problem, the "politically dispossessed"(8/9)

Those are the people who do not identify with ANY of the parties in question (Remember: ALL major parties officially supported the "yes" vote"). But that's for another time. (end)