Giovanni B. Ponzetto Profile picture
Manovale della Finanza, dal 1988 fund manager, dal 1997 insurance money manager . Poi società propria. ora altro. Italian English, Rt not endorsement.
20 Jul
WATERFALL THREAD ON #RecoveryFund: Sit back, it's long.

Few people outside the finance world are familiar with CDO structures. bit.ly/2ZKcaTZ @jeuasommenulle @macrodesiac_ @DavidBCollum @amlivemon @nglinsman @Halsrethink @RobertMCutler @vtchakarova @chigrl (1/13)
And yet, the concept of "seniority" is pervasive in our daily lives. everyone prioritizes expenses, otherwise we'd see at least someone live a s a vagrant but driving sweet exotic cars. But we need a roof over our head and food on our table first. (2/13)
Institutions don't "Eat", but they have their own priorities betrayed by behavior: we are NOT what we say we are, we are what we DO under duress. In CDOs, this is expressed as a "waterfall", i.e. money falls into tubes filling containers in a predetermined order. (3/13)
Read 14 tweets
19 Jul
This is a well written thread (h/t @RobertaPaliotti ). The only missing part is the observation that #COVID19 , by hitting straight at the productive heartland of Italy, irreparably damaged the social pact.(1/10)
The original system was that south of the Rubicon you depend on transfers from north of the Rubicon, and you leave them North guys be as best as you can. As time passed, and more and more the Kleptocracy was needy, the more producers chafed under the yoke. (2/10)
Now comes the interesting part: it is FALSE that Europe works in a different way, and that's the rub: the #GreenNewDeal, for example, is perfectly understandable to an Italian: under cover of an ethical goal, it appropriates a shitload of money for governments.(3/10)
Read 11 tweets
17 May
#ITALY THREAD:on.wsj.com/2ydKDzg "The Italian economy is set to contract by more than 9% this year, according to the European Commission. " should be viewed through the lens that those in unemployment insurance are statistically "employed". #ITALY (1/7)
Moreover, Small businesses are collateral damage in the war between central goverment and the Regions: less than 24 hours to the deadline a squabble erupted when the latest decree did NOT include leeway for Regions to set different rules.(2/7)
The Coesion minister, Mr. #Boccia, is a staunch centralist, and one of his strongest critics is the newly elected presidente of #EmiliaRomagna, mr. Bonaccini... from his same party. The locals are murmuring. (3/7)
Read 8 tweets
5 Apr
THREAD: UBERMISPRICERS.
Why the long love affair between governments and mispricing is not only likely to go on, but it could go wild, especially in the #EU. (1/13) @BaldingsWorld @Trinhnomics @DavidBCollum @amlivemon @Halsrethink @eshow1969 @nglinsman @DukeMarcude @galietti82
During this loooong #Lockdown, there are a number of wild barking dogs, but a considerable number did not bark, or didn't show up at all. Governments reasserted supremacy. Central bankers turbocharged their spigots. BUT, no consideration has been given to price discovery.(2/13)
If anything the fact that the response so far has been monetary, and through banks and stabilization of financial markets, belies that the love between governments and its chief mispricer, the Central Bank, is stronger than ever. Financial markets are more than suspect. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
14 Mar
THREAD: the fight after the next will be trying to keep politicians sane, assuming they will see reason between now and that point in the future. #GreenNewDeal #ESG #italy #COVID19 (1/10)
What you see above is the environmental effect of bringing my poor country's productive private economy, slowly moving forward on all four since 2008, to a screeching halt. It is also the avowed objective of #EUCO before this balloon went up.(2/10)
Now admittedly this was a bit sudden: a decade of future economic repression in ten days doesn't happen often. But do not expect the effects in terms of dislocation to be much milder or different. Politicians blush when you ask for cost benefit analysis. @CarloStagnaro (3/10)
Read 11 tweets
8 Jan
bit.ly/37KwcyD shooting missiles from Iranian territory was a MASSIVE blunder. Now the best move for the US is reminding Iraqis of all persuasion that they have a neighbor bent on dominating them. @Halsrethink @amlivemon @vtchakarova @RobertMCutler @BaldingsWorld (/)
That will be obviously loved by Kurds and Sunnis, but the most interested is Shias who don't love Iranian domination. Interesting times indeed. Second takeway is about #Suleimani . (/)
The fact that he hadn't thought about contingency plans in case he was killed, means he was the product of a kamikaze culture. not to be too bright eyed, but Iranians might have been overplayed as geopolitical players, irrespective of correlation of forces.
Read 3 tweets
21 Aug 19
ITALY: imho, Salvini needed the survival of M5S to a final vote on #TAV, where the opposition would furnish sufficient "yes" votes for the project to go on with #EU money while M5S, party which is part of the government, would vote AGAINST. (1/n)
That happened on August 7th ( bit.ly/2Hd1QtV ).
But to see why that was important, let me remind you that M5S is actually born out of the Anti- TAV movement, not the other way around. (2/n)
Especially here in Turin, where M5S are in power, the two are joined at the hips. Let's see the situation from M5S angle first. They vote Yes to TAV, they lose most of their support base, on top of the losses incurred in the recent local elections. (3/n)
Read 17 tweets
21 Jun 19
The radical difference between positive and negative rates hasn't dawned on the system yet, namely, the concept of "market". (/) @Halsrethink @DiMartinoBooth @TheBondFreak @tyillc @Trinhnomics
In a positive rates enviroment, Bond investors and equity investors are totally different animals.
The Bond investor has no fundamental need for a "market", while the equity investor can't exist without it.(/)
In positive rates, I could subscribe a middle of the road bond portfolio, say 20 bonds with 4% yield and 5 years maturity, board a sailing vessel at Plymouth, and come back after five years in the reasonable expectation of having more money than when I sailed.(/)
Read 8 tweets
13 Feb 19
mediolunga storia triste su #TAV:
mio padre era cresciuto in un piccolo paese del Canavese. per andare al liceo, ogni mattina faceva tre km a piedi per andare alla stazione a prendere il treno.
Studia, e con I sacrifici della famiglia e le borse di studio, diventa medico.
Fine anno 50, quelli del “medico condotto” . Fa vari concorsi, in vari comuni, e ne vince alcuni.
Quando si tratta di scegliere, decide per Sant'Ambrogio, in bassa Valle di Susa... perchè c'è la linea del traforo del Frejus.
a ad affittare casa.... a 70 metri dalla stazione. Il primo posto dove ho abitato, fino all'età di quattro anni.
Si afferma, e dopo un po' I miei decidono di costruirsi casa. In questo caso si allontana un po'. Difatti andiamo a 250 metri dalla stazione.
Read 10 tweets