Thread by @ChadPergram

A) As we always say, it’s always about the math on Capitol Hill.

B) Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Cory Gardner (R-CO) today signaled they believe the Senate should forge ahead and fill the Supreme Court vacancy this fall.

C) Gardner’s statement was silent on specific timing. Just saying that he would “vote to confirm” if/when President Trump puts forth a qualified nominee.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) said she would “evaluate” the nominee, but did not go as far as Gardner.

D) Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) will huddle with the Senate GOP leadership tomorrow. So far, Romney is keeping his powder dry. Don’t forget that Romney voted to convict President Trump on one article of impeachment in February and sometimes deviates from the party line.

E) So far, the “math” seems to be going in the favor of the gambit of filling the seat engineered by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are the only GOPers who have said the Senate should tap the brakes.

F) So, if Romney and Ernst ultimately support moving ahead, they likely have 51 yeas. If either Ernst or Romney oppose moving ahead, they may need Vice President Pence to break a tie. Never before has a Vice President broken a tie to confirm a Supreme Court Justice.

G) However, if there are two additional noes, coupled with Collins and Murkowski, the gig is up. They would be at four noes. So far, moderate Democrats like Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Doug Jones (D-AL) have opposed forging ahead.

H) It’s highly unlikely any Democrats will assist if Manchin and Jones won't bite.

I) That said, “problems” sometimes emanate from senators who are off the radar screen. This is the universe as we know it to confirming the next just justice.

J) Other senators could be in play at some point for some reason – perhaps after the President submits a nominee or after the hearing. But the math is now working in the favor of the President and McConnell.