Thread by @svscarpino

Tomorrow I'm speaking @yale_eeb on "Network Theory and COVID-19." My goal is to pull a thread across the 10+ papers we've written on the topic & convince you that #COVID19 became a pandemic because the world does not understand complex systems. h/t to my host @big_data_kane. 1/13

First, building from foundational work in math. epi. and network science, we showed how super-spreading creates havoc for pandemic risk predictions and then derive a method for correcting the predictions. 2/13

Second, how de-coupling the risk of infection from transmission breaks the friendship paradox, which most (non-mass-action) herd immunity thresholds rely on & can mean that backwards case investigation is more important than forward contact tracing. 3/13

Third, accounting for stochasticity changes the way we should think about super-spreading events and #COVID19 interventions. 4/13

Forth, that real-time mobility data during one of the largest human population disruptions in history--i.e., the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan, China--revealed the complex epidemiological dynamics of #COVID19. 5/13

Fifth, the way in which human behavior and policy interventions (or lack thereof) interacted to shape mobility patterns and physical distancing during lockdowns. 6/13

Sixth, why visits to places like churches and parks reveal the epidemiological risks associated with heterogeneous policies regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions. 7/13

Seventh, using data from >300k US survey responses to show how mask wearing affects COVID-19 transmission (pre-print and formal tweets coming soon). 8/13

Eighth, why, now, more than ever, understanding the non-SEIR dynamics of #COVID19 and the *potential* role of environmental transmission is critical. 9/13

Ninth, that classic ecological theory on crowding predicts the intensity & duration of #COVID19 epidemics and that hierarchical structure in mobility and social networks may be a critical driver of this pandemic (as predicted by network scientists). medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 10/13

Lastly, how an international consortium has compiled, what Steven Johnson in The New York Times Magazine, describes as what "may well be the single most accurate portrait of the virus’s [#COVID19's] spread through the human population in existence." 11/13

I'm excited & also nervous. Nervous because the work we've done stands on the shoulders of so many giants (including one my PhD advisors @meyerslab, which is where the title comes from) & it may take an hour just to acknowledge collaborators/funders. 12/13 ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

And excited because so many of us are convinced that the work of complex systems and network scientists matters more than ever. I can't wait to tell the world why and it starts tomorrow @Yale. 13/13