Thread by @corinhoggard

Confusing Tuesday update from the state.
They have Fresno County meeting the metrics to get out of purple.
Awesome, right?
Caveat #1: A county needs to do it two weeks in a row to change tiers.
Caveat #2: Check the stat I circled.
(1/2)

It doesn’t match the state’s own data for the raw number of new cases per day in this county, and by a significant enough margin to keep us from qualifying for the red tier this week.
I’m not working @ABC30 today, but I’m about to ask Dr. Rais Vohra for details.

Dr. Vohra confirms we've met the metrics for moving from purple to red.
Need to do it one more week.
I'll ask about the discrepancy when I can.

I asked a series of questions about the data.
The state's "blueprint for reopening" page says the data is for the week ending 9/12, they told me.
The state's own data reflected 110 cases per day for the week ending 9/12. (So in raw numbers, 10.9 per 100k, not 6.8.)

The state subtracts new cases from prisons and jails from its total.
You'd have to subtract about 300 cases that week to get to 6.8.
Fresno County has about 3000 people in Pleasant Valley State Prison and 1500 beds for patients at Coalinga State Hospital, plus the county jail.

Pleasant Valley State Prison has had 3 cases during the entire pandemic.
Coalinga State Hospital has had 133.
(I counted employees and inmates/patients.)
The Fresno County jail has 13 active cases.
The numbers don’t add up.
I emailed the state public health department.

I left out the federal prison in Mendota.
They have 4 patients right now: 3 inmates and a staff member.
Also, I don’t think the state subtracts cases at the county jail nor the employees...just state and federal inmate cases.
Still waiting for an explanation from CDPH.