Thread by @faisalislam

Just been on @bbcR4today talking to Justin about this Gove letter to industry about updated “reasonable worst case scenario” for post Brexit transition period border - first time clear acknowledgement of potential disruption on 1/1/21

“Maximum queues of 7000 port bound trucks”

contained in a letter sent yesterday to industry, encouraging it to get prepared for the new border irrespective of whether there is a deal or not...

delay scenario of 2 days - is almost the same as was in the Operation Yellowhammer No Deal documents (1.5 to 2.5 days) last year

Underlying projection is 70% of freight trucks traveling to EU from UK, and up to half on short straits crossing (Dover/ Eurotunnel) will not have correct documentation, coupled with assumption France will instigate full goods controls, stopping all freight without correct docs:

Such would be the extent of delays that lorries “caught up in congestion in the UK will be “unable to travel to the EU to export products” / collect another consignment “therefore we assume both imports and exports could be disrupted to a similar extent”...

Delays assumed to build over first two weeks of January and last up to three months as traders get used to new checks, but could last beyond that if France applies rigorously Schengen passport checks at juxtaposed border (first time I’ve seen that detailed as a potential issue).

Includes assumption that “some logistics operators may stop sending lorries via these routes in the event of significant delays” - this was a key fear of supermarkets’ no deal planning last year, particularly for refrigerated lorries carrying fresh food

All against backdrop of Covid/ weak economy - new post Brexit border at same time as pandemic, Govt say:
1. “A winter spike could suppress freight demand” (helping limit queues) BUT
2. “Absenteeism among port/ border staff and social distancing measures” (making queues worse)

Big picture here is Government wants to send message to hauliers/ exporters must be ready for new paperwork for new customs border with EU... hauliers say they are being “fitted up” for inevitable disruption caused by Govt post Brexit choices, unready systems, failure to extend..

Hauliers went public about recent Gove meeting being a “washout”...Govt say “not about blaming hauliers at all” need to be “transparent & cleared eyes about challenges”...but also will be “big opportunities for businesses who currently trade with EU only” bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

But then I get this message from hauliers.... 👀

Other issues - mutually beneficial deal to be done on UK haulage access to EU roads, but haven’t been able to talk as impasse on fish/state aid. Will that require adherence to EU rules on eg driver hours?

With No Deal, also fundamental issue of tiny number of permits for lorries

Government says will introduce a ‘Smart Freight’ IT service to enable traders/hauliers to complete a border readiness check. The information will be shared with Kent police to ensure only compliant vehicles travel to the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel. Updated border model coming

HT to @lisaocarroll for breaking this weeks ago. We get the official account in a Commons statement shortly... here’s our full story on this. But more to come... bbc.co.uk/news/uk-542604…