Thread by @jillongovt

Thanks to @michaelgove for drawing attention to the disruptive possibilities of no deal.. today @UKandEU have a report on just that ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

Big message is that-as Gove points out - there is much less difference between deal/no deal than last year - or than there would have (probably) been with a deal May negotiated "Canada and Australia are similar but not identical"

But the problem with an acrimonious no deal (and could it really be anything else since govt upped the ante with #IMbill) is that it reduces likelihood of EU making life easier for UK through unilateral measures

and the chances of speedy equivalence decisions on financial services and a data adequacy decision would reduce considerably - that will mean workarounds and some staff/asset moves - as well as hassle for customers

not asking for an extension always raised risk that no deal prep would coincide with #covid19 second wave.. that has already delayed preparations by govt and business

Govt comms campaign so determined to emphasise positives and not use the "B" word, easy to ignore - maybe Gove leak will help focus minds again.. but it won't mean there are lots more customs agents etc

Last year a lot of businesses backed parliament to stop no deal -- and saved themselves a lot of money. Not this year.

Our report points up areas where disruption is possible... agri-food will find itself at the sharp end of tariffs,,,and food supply chains which held up well most vulnerable to border delays.. we import a lot of food in January..

But there are other important areas where we will see impacts.. in short run covid restrictions will mean we probably won't notice much of the impact on travel for leisure or work, with or without pets

In longer run will also mean resorting to clunkier cooperation between police and courts.. and make it harder for the UK to pull off a triumphant G7 and COP26 next year. A tough start for Global Britain

and internally yet more pressure on the Union. No deal makes the border in the Irish Sea deeper.. and will add fuel to the nationalists in Scotland. UK will be proceeding against the wishes of devolved govts in Scotland and Wales and NI Assembly

Upsides: regulatory freedom (subject to other deals we want to do), freedom to subsidise business (subject to litigation under NI protocol), a low base to negotiate a new deal with the EU (more like a conventional trade deal) when anger subsides.

Over time economy will adapt. And I will get lots more passport stamps. ENDS