Otoh, R campaigns, including the Trump campaign, are pushing their voters to cast ballots by mail, indicating that campaign professionals believe it is the optimal way for their side to run up the numbers (which it generally is)
Typically about 1% of mail ballots are rejected and there isn't a big partisan difference in who votes by mail, so that doesnt matter much. But mail voting tends to increase turnout by well over 1%, so it's a net gain in participation.
(And if only one party is using it, that party will net votes, barring a catastrophic failure)
Now, is it possible there will be a catastrophic failure this year with all that's going on? Yes, of course. But that probably shouldn't be your presumption if you're war-gaming this.
Also, if you're war-gaming it, there's an equal chance of a catastrophic election day failure -- long lines at polling stations, polling stations closed, a storm and flooding, etc. So, again, it isn't just automatic that the people who vbm will turn out to be the suckers.
Finally, there has been a really remarkable series of Democratic panics over this
1) Chaos will lead to ballots not being counted. (Record turnout in primaries)
2) Trump is rigging USPS to kill mail voting (Postal service says mail voting should be fine)
And now 3) Trump will use the red mirage to get R state legislatures to appoint their own electors and steal the election.
Possible? Sure. But it'd require a very, very specific set of facts to happen, a 2000 Florida-like finish in the key state(s).
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