Nick Riccardi Profile picture
AP western political writer. Father, hiker, pizza snob, Mets fan. RTs confirm your darkest suspicions. NRiccardi@ap.org Signal, WhatsApp + voice (720) 470-4319
3 May
Diaz is gonna blow this, isn't he?
Yep
The Diaz meltdown in 2019 began in Philadelphia. And here we go again....
Read 6 tweets
24 Sep 20
"According to booking data from TripIt, a travel organizing app, Denver is the third-most popular fall travel destination this year." Seriously? Don't you people have somewhere better to go?! washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/de…
Denver is fine but if you're gonna come here you should really just keep driving west and visit the mountains. Denver is your typical pleasant western lifestyle town, but the mountains are just amazing.
Random list of places you could go in the fall that are better than Denver, even w crazy limited travel and the west coast on fire:

1) New Orleans
2) New York
3) New England (their fall color is better)
4) Florida (beaches! Just watch for hurricanes)
5) Santa Fe/NM
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
This isn't the way people live their lives!
Jordan clarifies in the thread that he's just looking for a nudge like endowing a lab at University of Wyoming, but....this isn't gonna spark an exodus of blue staters. Have you been to southern Wyoming? It's an acquired taste.
In fact if you want to live a lovely western lifestyle and be 2 hours from Denver there are already a wide range of options in places not as cold and windy and bleak as the Laramie area. They're all in the state of Colorado, which is pretty reliably blue.
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
Otoh, R campaigns, including the Trump campaign, are pushing their voters to cast ballots by mail, indicating that campaign professionals believe it is the optimal way for their side to run up the numbers (which it generally is)
Typically about 1% of mail ballots are rejected and there isn't a big partisan difference in who votes by mail, so that doesnt matter much. But mail voting tends to increase turnout by well over 1%, so it's a net gain in participation.
(And if only one party is using it, that party will net votes, barring a catastrophic failure)
Read 7 tweets
22 Sep 20
Actually the Supreme Court has been conservative for decades
This isn't subjective. There's been a conservative majority for a long time
There has been a continued pull rightward with conservatives complaining various justices (Kennedy, Roberts now) aren't "conservative," but they are actually in the conservative majority.
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep 20
The parties don't get to pick their ideological formation. They exist in response to societal trends and the Ds' shifts are due to an increasing college-educated population clustering in metro areas that are also magnets for immigration + job growth.
The fact that this coalition is now a majority of the US population and increasingly a majority of presidential election voters but not well distributed for the electoral college/Senate is a feature, not a bug, of the coalition.
I keep seeing stuff like this and yes, tactically this is absolutely what the party should do. But its voters aren't going to play along -- they're a majority, why should they have to adjust their views to win elections?
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep 20
Only 1 in 4 Latinos views themselves as a person of color. Why Latino politics isn’t what you think nytimes.com/2020/09/18/opi…
A crude assumption that Latinos will essentially replicate the black political experience and be a voting bloc that can be rallied by ethnic solidarity underlies a lot of assumptions about the demographic. It is a very big error.
(Also a crude understanding of black voters but that’s a thread for another day)
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep 20
The vast, vast majority of western forests are controlled by the federal government
State Forests are a thing back east, including in Trump's (and my) native NY, but they don't really exist in the west. It's all federal.
Anyway if the answer to the western megafires that are making air unbreathable for 1/6 of the country is better forest management that's the sort of thing a president could announce some initiatives on
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep 20
My youngest is watching Spider-Man: Far from Home as a reward for a hard day of online school and big plot hole becomes apparent on partial 3rd viewing: How does Mysterio know that Peter will be on a summer trip to Venice to set the plot in motion?
Also the whole fantasmagorical illusion sequence is kinda impossible for them to have whipped up in the 8 hours or so it takes Peter to get to Berlin.
Basically the movie doesn’t really make sense, doesn’t really move the story of Spider-man forward other than getting him and MJ together and setting up the big reveal in the final clip (which could have been done w any bad guy). It’s well written and acted and shot but empty.
Read 5 tweets
28 Aug 20
This is very useful — and note that the risks in the US are 10x those in the UK ft.com/content/176b9b…
So, by these calculations, in the typical state, the typical American has a 1 in 100,000 chance of a bad outcome from covid.

Of course the very wide regional difference of infection makes it hard to generalize.
And note that the author doesn’t see the even lower 1 in 1m risk in the UK as a reason for complacency. He’s worried about the fall.
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug 20
Seriously Idaho you had better backdrops than this
Scenic states gotta represent
Montana gets a pass given that the speaker is talking from her ranch
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug 20
Why making it harder to vote by mail can really bite Republicans in some states
The political CW is that if you make it harder to vote by mail you diminish marginal voters and increase the power of LVs. That worked for GOP when it’s voters were affluent college grads. But those are largely D voters now, which is why LV screens may favor Biden in white states
Anyway this is another reason the President has gone from condemning mail voting to saying it’s OK in some places. (FL not a white state but you can see how his goalposts could shift to them now.)
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug 20
Provided the state doesn’t have antiquated laws that prevent them from tabulating mail ballots before Election Day an all-mail state should have results faster than one that is mostly in-person
The delays in counting mail ballots are coming because states aren’t prepared for them, and haven’t adjusted their laws to allow early tabulation, something that’s being blocked by GOP lawmakers in various states.
States also desperately need more $ to buy new machines to speed mail ballot processing (and staff in-person polling locations) but so far the GOP-controlled senate hasn’t moved on that either.
Read 5 tweets
4 Aug 20
Yet another data point that Trump is doing better with Latino voters than many would expect
Trump's anti-immigration push has earned him, on net, Latino support and lost him white support. It's not (just) Latinos who are causing Rs to lose ground as the country diversifies, it's (college-educated) white backlash.
Can't stress enough, this is all on the margins. Big picture, Latinos are still 2-1 anti-Trump. Not a good demographic for him or Republicans, even w improvement/holding steady while rest of coalition crumbles.
Read 5 tweets
16 Feb 20
Warren is up in Reno and barely audible: "After more than 100,000 selfies, I caught someone's cold. The good news is nevertheless, I persist."
This is not an ideal campaign situation but she's telling the story of how her aunt came to help w child care and it is pretty affecting in her ragged voice.
"I'm not running for president so I can move into a nicer house," Warren says. "I'm running for president so I can get things done."
Read 7 tweets
27 Jan 19
It’s not thousands in Oakland but John Hickenlooper does have a pretty crowded house party in Des Moines
Hick, asked about health care, recalls his partnership w Kasich but says “we’re never going to run together — the guy doesn’t support Planned Parenthood.”
Hick dodges on health care though saying rather than fighting over Medicare for All Ds should unite on trying to achieve universal health care and not fight over specifics.
Read 8 tweets
13 Nov 18
Some closing thoughts on #AZSen. First off, people have been wondering when AZ, w its growing Latino population would start acting like CA. It may have this election -- but not in the stereotypical way.....
AZ is further to the right than CA was when Ds took it over in 1998. Sinema won not by wooing Latinos but by targeting white women, often Republicans. She backed Kate's law and other tough-on-immigrant-crime Trumpy measures (though she never went full Trump, always backed CIR)
Ironically there are some parallels with CA circa 1998. Ds came back not with a firebreathing lefty but moderate gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis who persuaded white centrists, He won as CA voters also outlawed bilingual education and still supported anti-immigrant Prop 187.
Read 13 tweets