Thread by @aaronsojourner

1.45 million initial state + PUA unemployment insurance claims filed in week ending 9/19, similar to prior week.

This extends a terrible streak to 27 consecutive weeks each with more UI claims than any of prior 2,776 weeks, back to record's start in 1967.
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…

The number of Americans continuing to use UI payments is reported at 26 million. A reporting issue in CA made this higher in prior weeks.

U.S. has 6.6 million job openings.

If every opening were filled, there would be 19.4 million Americans using UI.

To get a sense of weakness in that labor market, the share of Americans in their prime working years (age 25-54) who are now employed remains 5.2 percentage points below its February level.

This level is similar to its lowest level during and after the Great Recession.

Millions of Americans worry about their ability to pay for housing.

1 in 11 Americans with a mortgage and 1 in 4 renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to make their October housing payment.

Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey

Huge shares of renters lack confidence in ability to pay October rent in Southern states, NV, NJ, RI, TX, and WY.

Substantial shares of households with a mortgage lack confidence in ability to pay October housing payment in Southern states, Dakotas, IL, WV, SC, and NY.

About 3 in 5 American adults report being employed and at work. This reflects slow improvement since spring and remains low overall.

Employment rates relatively high in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New England, low in the South and Southwest.

Experiences with past & expectations of future employment income losses, and inability to make housing payments is hitting people in every racial and ethnic group and hitting Black and Hispanic Americans especially hard.

In every group, about 1 in 3 can't stop worrying most days

Households that were better off in 2019 are struggling far less than others.

Stresses are very prevalent among those who entered the crisis with the least.

However, even 2019 higher-income folks are feeling pressure. Over 15% expect employment income losses & worry chronically

At end of summer, among moms who were not working for pay or profit, abt 3 in 10 named child care responsibilities as the main reason they weren't working.

For dads not working, about 1 in 10 said child care was the main reason.

Gender the big divide, tho some race-ethn diffs.

For dads, over 1 in 4 reported being out of work mainly due to the coronavirus recession (was laid off or employer experienced a reduction in business, closed temporarily, or went out of business due to coronavirus pandemic).

For moms, this was less commonly the main reason.

Stressed household balance sheets getting more stressed.

At the end of August versus mid-July, greater shares of working-age Americans who lost employment income since the start of the crisis report that they are covering weekly expenses by spending down assets & adding debt.

Overall, 24% of Americans who applied for UI since March never received it due to an unknown mixture of administrative hassle & true ineligibility.

This differs across race-ethnicity.

White: 22%
Black: 30%
Hispanic: 24%
Other: 24%

In late August, Americans reported that they were downshifting spending or shopping patterns.

Over the prior 7 days, 56% report changing to eat less at restaurants but only 9% report changing to eat more at restaurants.

Per Census data #HouseholdPulseSurvey.

Changes were MUCH more often driven by negative than positive reasons.

35% of people changed because their usual places closed or reduced hours, versus only 9% because of re-openings or increased hours.

31% made changes due to loss of income, only 1% due to increased income.

These HPS spending change questions are new. They're meant to get people to report on how their household behavior changed *over the prior week* but I suspect many answer about changes since March.

Many questions are paired. In last 7 days, did you:
- increase in-restaurant dining?
- decrease in-restaurant dining?

A reason for changes is:
- concerns about the economy?
- no longer concerned about the economy?

I define net change as %age point increased - decreased.

States where net concern about the economy are increasing (to the right) are also states reporting a larger net decrease in-restaurant dining (to the bottom).

This is from the most recent survey, during Sept 2-14.