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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Aaron Sojourner
@aaronsojourner
#Labor #economics Also: https://t.co/qufShsE8lo https://t.co/AWHnCQupjr
3 subscribers
Jun 9, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
This paper is SOOOOO interesting. I love it.

They posit 3 types of Americans with different relations to the labor market. Folks in:

- primary enjoy steady work, any job search quick.

- 2ndary struggle to find jobs, move across U, E, N a lot.

- 3iary mostly out. These bring the Dual Labor Market hypothesis home to the U.S.

Interprets short-panel linked CPS data combining:

- a hidden Markov model of observed transitions by latent type,

- a measurement model uses many rich CPS questions to assign each person type probabilities.
May 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Amazon warehouse mgmt uses intensive, opaque monitoring as input to discipline, pay, promotion, & firing decisions.

MN just passed a law requiring employers like them to make such standards, incentives, & data transparent to workers.

Fascinating on a few fronts... Image No one likes working to unclear standards.

But mgmt often prefers it,⬇️some gaming &⬆️ managers' discretionary power.

Even if mgmt uses clear well-justified rules, if workers don't know them, feel arbitrary.

Mgmt says, trust us. Many workers do not.
thenation.com/article/politi…
May 20, 2023 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
What have Minnesota Democrats done with their new trifecta, @StarTribune? Lots.
startribune.com/recreational-m… thenation.com/article/politi…
May 18, 2023 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Lower-income Americans often need access to $ NOW!

Speedier payments benefit those most in need.

Instant payments, like @federalreserve’s FedNow coming July, would create billions in consumer value.

🧵my new paper w/the great @ryanmcdevitt
direct.mit.edu/rest/article-a… Image We measure willingness-to-pay (WTP) for $ today versus $ soon.

Use transaction data from a bank that offers both bank accts (BA) & check-cashing (CC), unusual.

Usually, 2 services offered by different bizs = tough to leverage customer choices to credibly isolate WTP.
Mar 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Wealthiest 0.1% of Americans saw 5.0% of their wealth disappear from the quarter before the Fed started hiking rates in 2022Q1 to 2022Q4

The next 0.9% saw 7% of their wealth disappear

In contrast, the least-wealthy half of Americans saw their (much smaller) wealth rise 17% The price of Fed action to fight inflation has so far been paid mostly by wealthier Americans whose assets in stocks, crypto, & elsewhere deflated.

If Fed causes employers to start destroying jobs in the real economy, the price burden will shift dramatically.
Jan 29, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
10% of America's abt 155 million employees belong to a union.

+1 percentage point a year requires +1.55 million net members if employment flat.

In 2022, union membership rose 273K, 6X smaller. Estimated +273K from @BLS_gov worker survey. Reflects net hiring by union employers, priv (+193K) + public (+80K) sector, & new organizing inside & outside NLRB.

Abt 52K private sector workers voted to newly unionize in 2022, eyeballing @KevinReuning's NLRB data. 30X smaller.
Jan 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
As @PrestonMui @employamerica reminded us, slowdown in hiring is a leading indicator of recession, layoffs lag.

Official hiring rate estimate @BLS_gov #JOLTS has declined since Fed started ⬆️rates in Mar 2022. We'll get Dec estimate on Wed. Hiring is the slowest key labor market indicator to show up in official statistics.

An advance signal is available from small-biz payroll data @GustoHQ @parduel, Doesn't parallel JOLTS but broadly agrees.

Dec data: continued decline, consistent with employer demand weakening
Oct 18, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Labor productivity only started falling in 2022Q1.

I don't see how the more-onboarding theory fits with that. It seems like post-Omicron wave disability could contribute.
Oct 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Here's the noisy, month-specific estimate of median within-worker over-the-year wage growth. We got Sept last week @AtlantaFed.

Apr: 6.3%
May: 6.5%
Jun: 7.4%
Jul: 6.3%
Aug: 6.3%
Sept: 6.5%

It spiked in June but has been pretty stable in other recent months. Image For interpretation, a lot hinges on if you think of this pattern as a steady acceleration from 2021 to a:

a) June 2022 peak followed by a reversal => wage growth decelerating

b) plateau starting in Apr 2022 with 1-month outlier => wage growth stable

Need more time to know.
Oct 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Current labor law treats white-collar criminals the way a parent treats a 5-year old.

Jail time? Absolutely not possible under current law. Zero chance.

Fines and penalties? Zero chance.

Worst case: apologize & give back what you stole.
It seems these @Starbucks managers used their power to violate workers' legal rights & illegally protect their own career interests.

Arrest, fines, & jail should be on the table for law breakers. For managers, none are & #WhiteCollarCrimeSpree continues.
Sep 2, 2022 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
Happy #JobsDay.

At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts’ center:
+318K jobs
Steady at 3.5% unemployment rate Biggest question in economy:

How quickly can we raise supply? Keep global communities healthy & vibrant. Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity. Success means more consumption & lower prices.

Failure means painful demand reductions via Fed.
May 13, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Americans employed both now & a year ago average wage growth equal to the rate of consumer price inflation.

@AtlantaFed Wage Growth Tracker computes average over-year hourly wage growth within-worker pooling data on growth into most-recent 3 months.

CPI=avg wage growth=8.1% Image This is not the standard way that @BLS_gov computes real wage growth. They look at average wages of those working now versus average wages of those working a year ago, combining both wage changes within-worker and changes in who's working.
May 6, 2022 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
Happy #JobsDay. Hope you’re staying healthy.

At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts’ center:

+400K jobs

3.5% unemployment rate, would = pre-pandemic low back to 1969. Biggest question in the economy:

How quickly can we raise supply? Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity.

Success means more consumption & lower prices.

Failure means more-painful demand reductions.
May 6, 2022 • 17 tweets • 13 min read
I'm excited to have so many labor economists meeting @SOLE_Labor_Econ in Minneapolis starting tomorrow!

🧵on ideas for local food, culture, exercise, and getting around. Food

Twin Cities are blessed with especially large, vibrant Hmong, and East African communities. Great, affordable Vietnamese and Ethiopian restaurants abound.

Lots of info on food scene in general here:
twincities.eater.com
Apr 25, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Things that are all true:

1) U.S. workers' bargaining power is higher than any time in recent decades,

2) U.S. workers' bargaining power is low & workers are struggling to claim a larger share of value they're helping create,

3) employers' profits bigger than before From 2019Q4 to 2021Q4:

Corporate profits up 21%,
Consumer prices up 8%,
Hourly private-sector labor compensation up 7%. Image
Mar 30, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Abruzzo is no joke. She's making bold moves. 🔥🔥
Mar 11, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
For the younger half of U.S. workers, their own wages have grown faster over the year on average than consumer prices (CPI-U: +7.5% into last 3 months), much faster for the youngest workers.

Middle and older age workers' wage growth tended to lag CPI by a few percentage points. Analysis launches off from @AtlantaFed Wage Growth Tracker (WGT). Follows those employed both in a recent month & 12 months prior, computes over-year wage growth rate for each, & describes growth rate distribution for various groups.
Dec 26, 2021 • 12 tweets • 9 min read
The survey they cite found that, "When unvaccinated adults are asked what would convince them to get a COVID-19 vaccine, half say nothing could convince them." So the other half (19 million-ish) say something could convince them. But @nytimes gives us this lazy ⬇️ narrative. The @nytimes cited a @KFF poll.

@uscensusbureau Household Pulse Survey gives independent evidence, w/similar results.

Unvaxxed Americans are split abt evenly. 19.6m say they'd "definitely not" get vaccinated & 18.5m say otherwise. (Health Table 5a).
census.gov/data/tables/20…
Dec 16, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
We are at a 20 year low of hiring yield = hires/opening. HR folks, you are not imagining it.

Both an unusually synchronized surge in hiring efforts across organizations as well as a low unemployment rate are driving this.

I am often asked: what can employers do? Improvements to retention & recruitment can both increase your ability to be selective in hiring, rather than desperate.

For most, start with retention. You already convinced these people to work with you. You are in constant communication with them.

How?
Dec 13, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Younger American workers experienced average growth in their own hourly wages that significantly outpaced average price growth (CPI-U) over the last year.

Middle-aged workers' wage growth lagged price growth a bit.

@arindube's graph below inspired this analysis. @arindube More detail here:
Dec 11, 2021 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
Zoomers' wages are growing really fast. Median over-the-year growth within worker into the last 3 months is almost 10%, but less fast than last 2 months showed.

Acceleration in prime-age and older workers too. Image Splitting up the age groups more finely shows acceleration in a lot of age groups, though lots of noise. Image