Thread by @SteveBakerFRSA

Here's the latest from epidemiologist and acute medicine consultant @drraghibali:

"The pluses and minuses of the Government’s new plan – and why there should be no more lockdowns."

Raghib's article is essential reading for everyone debating #COVID19

conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…

"[...] although we do now have actual experience of dealing with first waves (as opposed to just modelling), ‘the science’ is still highly uncertain, with conflicting evidence for the effectiveness of different strategies (mitigation vs. suppression) in different countries."

"it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions but, in brief, the evidence we have is generally from low quality observational data which have significant limitations – and so we don’t know for certain if the reduction in disease was due to the intervention or other factors."

"it is still too early to say which countries’ strategies are correct, and we won’t know until the end of the pandemic."

"The evidence for the effectiveness of local lockdowns is mixed, but they will still have associated harms – and will exacerbate inequalities and so similar comprehensive, cost-benefit analyses are needed – with the input of economists and educationalists as well."

"Finally, having served on the front-line, I am only too aware of the death and suffering that Covid-19 causes – but the harms of a second lockdown would be greater," writes @drraghibali

Essential reading.