Thread by @jonjalex

🚨New Report🚨

Winning For Britain: Rebuilding @LibDems to change the course of our country

By me & @LiberalPatriot_ for @soclibforum

Unless BOTH Labour AND Lib Dems win big and start NOW, Conservatives will rule the 2020s

It's time to step up

socialliberal.net/winning_for_br…

TL;DR?

There's a punchy summary in this @Independent piece

But the thread below is really good 😁

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

Our starting point?

As @LabourTogether GE2019 Review found, Lab would need a BIGGER swing than 1997 for a SINGLE SEAT majority

That's before Cummings moves the boundaries - and you know he will

But @LibDems are 2nd to Tories in 80 SEATS...

To help us figure out what next @LiberalPatriot_ and I called @paulhilder @DatapraxisEU

They did the analysis for @LabourTogether GE2019 Review - and the most comprehensive independent review of the whole election

That one's worth a look in itself

dataprax.is/tory-landslide…

So here's the task we identified

We don't have to get into coalition programmes or even electoral alliances just yet

That time will come

First we LDs need to
1) get our electoral campaigning sh1t together
and
2) figure out what we're about

Then we'll be ready to talk

So, electoral campaigning...

In GE2019 we were bad on data, bad on messaging, and we lost BAD as a result

We recommend proper investment in and understanding of two tools in particular, now, to get back up to speed

Tool #1: MRP data

Multi-level regression and post-stratification, if you really want to know

Basically a polling approach that - if you know how to use it - can give you
🤯 constituency level insight 🤯
🤯 on a daily basis 🤯

Here's GE2019 in 9 key seats

(That's one for @mpmwilko @DrPhillipLee @monicabeharding @PaulaWFerguson @ThomasMorrison @ZoeFranklinLD @IanSollom @LewesLibDems @tessamunt in particular

NB: South Cambs was within the margin of error)

Tool #2: IRT

Implicit Response Testing

Quickfire quantitative message testing that lets you understand BOTH rational AND emotional resonance

(This is Cummings' 3-word machine BTW)

Here's a taster - inc how LD could have been better

Once we get our heads round those (and keep on top of the next developments), the big strategic task begins

What is Liberalism about in the Covid era?

And how do we make that sing come election time?

Right now, ours is not to answer those - but to inform them with data

With the age of Clegg-ism and equidistance now thankfully behind us, we get into the meat of the 14 voter tribes identified by @DatapraxisEU and offer three strategic options...

Option 1: Strategic Challenger to Labour

You might call this "go left of Labour" - which with Starmer moving at least a little right on social values might seem smart...

But we don't like it - not least because the potential to sustain progressive infighting is WAY too great

Option 2: Tactical Supporting Act to Labour

This seeks in effect to become part of the same electoral force. It would prob win some more seats and wouldn't f--- things up. It's viable.

But there's a pretty low ceiling on what's possible - maybe 30 seats max

And so to option 3: A Distinct, Progressive Liberal Alternative

This is where we think the action is

There's three big ingredients needed for the recipe, to judge by the data

1 - Make the core values relevant
2 - Talk about power
3 - Face the demons head on

Core values...

Fairness ✅
Internationalism ✅
Environmentalism ✅

The voters the Liberal Democrats need to win BELIEVE in these things

We have to breathe 2020 into them - but they stand

Power...

This is the one I'm most personally passionate about

There is a huge space in British politics for a party of the Citizen

A champion of deliberative and participatory democracy, that puts power in people's hands

The data confirms the desire

Facing the demons...

This is the tricky stuff and where the debate will need to come

You can't not talk about patriotism or security in the 2020s

We've left the field open and it's been colonised - horribly

Liberal Democrats have to find a way to speak abt these concepts

Getting this right is not going to be easy and it's not going to be instant

But the price of failure is ENORMOUS

Imagine another decade of this

We have to beat this government by the rules of the game as they stand - and that means @LibDems are crucial

Hope comes from the fact that this role is deep within us

These are the words of the late great Paddy Ashdown, whose work and thinking are why I joined

With this spirit, we can deliver - not just for party, but for country

We @soclibforum are on this charge - we’d love you to join us

socialliberal.net/join_the_slf