See my piece in today's Washington Post⤵️
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
If you are Donald Trump, and your image is based on the claim that you are a winner, what do you do when every recent national poll has you losing?
1/
How do you stop people from talking about your failed pandemic policies, tapes showing that you lied to the American people, an economy in trouble, and polls showing the Republicans are likely to lose their Senate majority?
2/
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
You create a fiction: You tell the world that you are not losing, the other side is cheating, and you will not allow it.
When Trump says something like, “we can throw away the ballots and avoid having to transfer power,” he triggers outrage.
3/
He hijacks the national conversation.
Everyone must now discuss whether Trump can get rid of ballots (he can't) and whether the state governments and the courts will work in tandem to overturn an election and install Trump as a dictator (highly unlikely).
4/
People become convinced that Trump absolutely can pull it off.
Thus Trump creates a fantasy world in which he will retain power, and his critics inadvertently lend credence to the fantasy by acting as if it is true.
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
5/
See how Trump transforms himself from a guy who is losing into an unstoppable winner?
I understand how it happens. Trump keeps everyone in such a heightened state of panic and outrage that it's hard to think clearly.
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We forget what happened yesterday and can’t think ahead to tomorrow.
This is not to say Trump is not dangerous. He is. Look at how he controls us.
Moreover, he would lie, cheat, steal, and even let more than 200,000 Americans die if he thought it would get him reelected.
7/
But cannot get rid of ballots.
It's not up to him to decide who wins the election.
He does not choose when he leaves the White House.
Moreover, he is losing.
More here:
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
I agree.
My guess is that if something is repeated often enough, some people will think it's true. ("Her emails!")
Trump critics don't have time to talk about the economy.
We have to keep talking about whether Trump can pull off a coup.
A common logical error on Twitter is confusing what might happen with what will happen.
Person A demonstrates that something is possible.
Then people say, "You can't prove that it won't happen, so it will."
When I say, "It's possible but highly unlikely," people come along and say, "You're such an optimist."
I'm an optimist for not thinking an unlikely event is a foregone conclusion.
The other error goes like this . . .
Argument: Trump defies subpoenas. He ignores the law. Therefore he can steal the election.
This is like saying, "I got away with speeding so I can certainly rob 10 banks."
Stealing a US election is not comparable to: "You can't have my taxes and you can't make me talk."
A problem is headlines. Authors don't write the headlines for their articles. They don't see them ahead of time.
In my piece I wrote this: "He probably won’t succeed in preventing the peaceful transfer of power to Joe Biden if he loses."
I never said "can't."
Trump engages in wishful thinking, which everyone takes seriously, which then lends credence to the fantasy and helps Trump bring about the outcome he wants.
Undermining confidence in democratic institutions (i.e. persuading people the election is rigged) undermines democracy.
Precisely. We know Peale shaped his thinking.
This is how Trump governs.
Examples:
🔹The virus will magically disappear.
🔹If you stop testing, you won't have bad test results.
🔹I'm losing because of massive voter fraud.
Another thing people argue: They say "we have to uncover all of these far-fetched unlikely scenarios so that we can guard against them."
Ok. Let's talk about this.
Suppose there are elections, a normal election, and one with an unhinged candidate threatening crazy stuff . . .
In the normal election, you really want to win, so you try to mobilize your voters. You know there will probably be legal issues because there always are, so you put together a top notch legal team. You put security in place in polling areas.
These things happen all the time.
Now, add an unhinged candidate threatening to find ways to steal the election. What do you do? All the same things. (Maybe add a few extra teams of lawyers, and more polling place security, which is what is happening.)
Perhaps because I am a volunteer lawyer on Georgia's Voter Protection Team, and I am constantly recruiting people to work polls, I really don't understand what good comes from spending hours, days, weeks, and months focusing on unlikely events.
Focus on turning out the vote.
People insisting and we need more preparation should say what that would be. More lawyers? More poll workers?
"Preparing" by talking about this 24-7 so issues important to voters are never discussed (and Trump's actual failures are never discussed) helps Trump.
If "preparing" includes persuading voters that the election will be rigged so their votes won't count, well, I'm not seeing how this does anything except help Trump. Persuading people that their votes won't count is actually a form of voter suppression.
The "evidence" we have that Trump will rig the election is Trump's own comments, and the things Trump's campaign manager told the Atlantic⤵️
Trump wants to persuade us that he can rig this election.
I suppose the people who think Trump will be harmed by talking about this believe that Trump supporters will turn away from Trump if they know he's willing to rig an election.
The opposite is true, actually. They will get energized and respect the Mighty Strongman.
(Sorry I keep adding to this thread. It helps me find everything later for my blog)
A good question is whether the article serves any other purpose.
If Trump had an actual way to rig the election, would he send someone to tell a reporter?
You don't hear Obama, Biden, or Harris insisting that Trump can (and will) rig the election.
Why would anyone bother voting if the fix is in?
Also, Trump does have a chance of winning by getting enough people to vote for him.
This is from 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-…
23% is not zero.
I maintain that there is much less than a 23% chance that Trump can pull off a coup and overturn the results of the election.
So you're all worrying about the wrong thing.
They say Trump will refuse to concede, but they don't say he will stay in the White House.
It's obvious he will refuse to concede.
But an incumbent who refuses to concede does not get to remain in office.
This thread is a blog post, here: terikanefield-blog.com/we-are-in-dang…
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