Thoughts on $AMZN launch of Luna cloud gaming:
1/ The $AMZN Luna launch has the potential to be big, especially if they can drive user acquisition through Twitch integration. More likely Luna is a loser in cloud gaming like Stadia because content is king
2/ The winner that combines cloud gaming and content is xCloud/Game Pass. Luna and Stadia have no competitive advantage versus xCloud when content is the most important component to drive users.
3/ We’ve seen a proliferation of cloud gaming services that have the same titles, with the vast majority being sub-AAA quality. MSFT gaming IP + the acquisition of ZeniMax + Azure + the existing Xbox user base = winner.
4/ What can Luna/Stadia do vs Game Pass? They must compete on content, and you have 3 routes: partnerships, in-house or acquisition. $AMZN is going the partnership route partnering with @Ubisoft, but what advantage does that have when Ubisoft can partner with Stadia / $MSFT too?
5/ Luna could go the $NFLX route and create their own studios to develop AAA titles exclusively for the platform, but given complexity/time/cost, it’ll take 2-3 years to develop the first titles and by then the war will be lost.
6/ The only route forward is the acquisition of publishers/studios. If Amazon really wants to compete on gaming they’re going to have to go hunting for the $TTWO / $EA / $ATVI / @EpicGames of the world which is a large check to write.
7/ Without $AMZN or $GOOGL making a big move the inevitable winner in the cloud gaming space is going to be $MSFT.
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