1/ $RBLX reported Q2 and stock getting hit AH -13% to $41. We saw bookings growth turn back positive in Jun +9% & Jul +10% but EBITDA margin of 8.5% is at a low (last 3 Q2s have been 26%, 34%, 13%). DAU growth and scale is impressive but market not seeing it in financials. 2/ Over 13yo demographic is now 53% of DAUs and growing 30%+. At this point $RBLX has successfully put to bed the argument they can't age up and grow the TAM.

1/ Big question for travel stocks is whether strong summer demand can continue into fall or if it's one-time from pent up covid demand. There's a lot of noise but it appears it's more odd seasonality as opposed to consumer weakness. This chart shows YTD air bookings vs 2019. 2/ Historically summer demand peaks right around July 4th, you can see this in the web traffic stats for OTAs $ABNB, $EXPE, $BKNG. My sense is that this normal seasonality has been disrupted for a couple reasons.

1/ $ABNB printed a beat for Q2. GBV +27% Y/Y, EBITDA of $711m (33.8% margin) and announces a $2bn repurchase authorization but the stock is down 9% AH on a "weak" Q3 guide. 2/ Q3 guide for revs of $2.78-2.88B but what really matters is GBV. Experiences booked guidance of "stable w/ Q2" aka ~25% and ADRs "slightly higher" Y/Y implies GBV approx +27% in Q3 vs street +34% so a miss vs expectations.

1/ $UBER with a strong report, finally seeing meaningful profitability (and importantly FCF). GBV +33%, EBITDA $364m (4.5% rev margin, 1.3% GBV margin) $382m of FCF, and reaffirm long term ability to hit $5B of EBITDA (with $4B+ of FCF) in 2024 2/ Driver supply has improved, wait times down, % of trips surged also down (and both trending towards pre-covid levels). Doing this while avg driver earning well >$30/hr in the US. This is a sustainably profitable business now.

A few takeaways from $UBER and $LYFT:

1/ Profitability, FCF, and Margins matter. $LYFT clearly living in 2021 where management thinks growth at the expense of profitability is important. $UBER will see sequentially growing margins, FCF, and profitability throughout 2022. 2/ Network effects matter. $UBER US/Canada Q1 drivers +79% Y/Y (and new drivers +121% in Apr) vs $LYFT +40% in Q1. @dkhos emphasized the earning power and flexibility drivers have with logging onto @Uber and choosing mobility vs delivery.

1/ Incredibly impressed with what @DavidBaszucki & the team at $RBLX presented at their investor day today. The pace of development on the platform is absolutely mind blowing. Some of the things they're working on: 2/ Better engine/tech/tools to help create content for older users @mbronstein

Thoughts on $AMZN launch of Luna cloud gaming: 1/ The $AMZN Luna launch has the potential to be big, especially if they can drive user acquisition through Twitch integration. More likely Luna is a loser in cloud gaming like Stadia because content is king