Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions rose rapidly this week, exceeding 300 on Wednesday for the first time since mid-June.
The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. (1/4)
Based on recent hospital admissions data it looks like the R number was around 1.4 at the end of the first week in September. Over the next week or two we’ll see the impact of schools reopening, but also local lockdowns and other restrictions. (2/4)
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 25 in recent days.
For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we allow for reporting delays.
👉 covid-arg.com/bulletins (3/4)
I’m planning to reduce the frequency of these updates. When I started them on 7 September this was news, but I think the pattern is now clear now to those who are open to listening. Next update after the weekend. (4/4)
Here is the regional breakdown. Very much a north / south divide (with the exception of London).
To clarify my comment above - we’re not stopping these updates, just dropping to two or three a week as an extra day of data isn’t moving the trend much. (5/4)
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