Thread by @SteveSayersOne

7/9/20 Polling update. Don’t forget headline results of +50% LeaveUK (or thereabouts) EXCLUDE undecideds. Many polls now only use a subset of respondents & soft questions. SNP internal target is +60% polling for 12 mnths, even given the benefit of ALL DKs, nowhere near 😏 #SNPOut

It’s evident that even with ALL the DK’s awarded LeaveUK hasn’t even approached their target other than in 4 polls. Bear in mind polls have a +/-3% accuracy & DKs normally stick with the status quo as happened in 2014.

The recent bluster from Nats & their politicians about a surge & having a consistent lead in the polls is absolute nonsense - they’d have to hit 52% EXCLUDING DKs consistently for months 2 claim real progress. The press have talked a few polls up for sensationalism. No real lead.

The question is another issue - should Scotland be an independent country isn’t as clear cut as any new #Scexit question would have be, Yes or No to a “should” question just won’t be allowed. They’ve already conceded the electoral commission would be voted involved.

The age split on the last poll (Survation) was very interesting;
220, 54% of 411 16-34 yr olds voted LeaveUK, only 200 of 569 +35 yrs old did, 35%. When you examine demographics it’s basically up yours @AngusRobertson - your matching 55k births & deaths was a lie

I don’t know about anyone else but I’d sorta like 2c them get a 51% vote (not seat) Holyrood majority in 2021 based on a primary/specific #Scexit manifesto & get a tight s30 & an Edinburgh Agreement 2 that locked a third vote out for +35yrs - let’s get rid of nationalism, #SNPOut

So bring it on!

If however @GOVUK & @UKGovScotland sticks to the script & says to @NicolaSturgeon tough, you’ve had your once in a generation/lifetime opportunity, then I can live with that. U.K. parliament is sovereign & the constitution is reserved.