Thread by @KesariDhwaj

@FrankBullit67 Bit of a long read but bear with me -
1. Using various XYZ agreements with us, Chinese have managed to get away with minimal troop commitment on India-Tibet border.
2. Simple comparison - Between Eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, India has deployment of 12+ divisions worth +

@FrankBullit67 + of troops.
3. Some are forward deployed while others are in rear but at a short-distance from the forward sector.
4. What is the Chinese deployment? Well, along the same border, not more than two divisions worth of troops, and this includes Border Defense Regiments, a rough+

@FrankBullit67 + equivalent of our ITBP but more militarized.
5. Why does China feel confident of getting away with such minimal deployment?
6. Because it knows India will never fire the first shot in anger. Any hostilities will be started by the Chinese.
7. But in spite of such minimal +

@FrankBullit67 + force level, China has actually occupied territory on Indian side of our claim-line through creeping-up and salami-slicing in the past.
8. And what did we do?
9. Not much because of the way Indian establishment in the past has been conditioned to respond to the Chinese.
+

@FrankBullit67 +
10. Basically, we have been afraid to 'upset' the Chinese and call their bluff.
11. Not to mention that by signing these useless XYZ agreements, Chinese managed to lull Indian policy makers into believing that there is no threat from the Chinese.
12. While our own infra +

@FrankBullit67 + development languished, Chinese spent billions developing infra within Tibet as well as improving its connectivity with mainland.
13. And one more very important point - Peace on India-Tibet border allowed China to concentrate on the eastern seaboard.
14. A cursory look at the+

@FrankBullit67 + Chinese investment in its armed forces will show that the Chinese navy, followed by the Chinese Air Force, have lions share of investment towards modernization.
15. Even in case of their army, max attention has been paid to Group Armies facing east.
16. All this status quo now+

@FrankBullit67 + stands upended.
17. Here is a simple statistic :
- before present hostilities, Chinese presence opposite us in Eastern Ladakh was at best equivalent to 4,000-5,000 soldiers.
- Indian presence? More than 20,000 soldiers!
18. What is the situation now?
+

@FrankBullit67 +
19. China had to bring-in more than 50,000 soldiers opposite us in Eastern Ladakh. My guess is between 60,000-80,000 soldiers.
20. Sure, we've also gone from 20K+ to similar number but who has had to commit disproportionate amount of troops compared to earlier levels?
+

@FrankBullit67 21. And what has been gained by the Chinese?
22. Assume Chinese sit in perpetuity between F4-F8 areas. 23. For occupying few sq.km of area and retaining it, Chinese had to mobilize, and now station 60,000-80,000 troops in high-altitude area where earlier +

@FrankBullit67 + it did not even have 10% of this troop level and still, had managed to stealthily occupy in the past.
23. People talk about Indian Army having to build infra to house troops and associated cost.
24. Sure. There is a cost to it. But it is on both sides.
25. Chinese also have to+

@FrankBullit67 + build everything from scratch to house so many troops which have been moved here from cities in Xinjiang.
26. Their better road infra is meaningless beyond a point because Tibet on its own cannot support such numbers.
27. And major Chinese cities from where FOL (Fuel, Oil,+

@FrankBullit67 + Lubricants) and food+ fresh vegetables and meat have to be sourced are 1,500+ km away in Xinjiang.
28. On a strategic level, this Chinese action has ensured hardening of opinions on Indian side.
29. There is already more push for improving infrastructure across the border with+

@FrankBullit67 + the Chinese. This will only gain more momentum.
30. India will commit more troops, allot more and better equipment, be extra vigilant against the Chinese.
31. No more free passes to them. Indian establishment no longer gives a shite about the Chinese feelings.
32. Chinese have+

@FrankBullit67 + just managed to wake-up a sleeping and benign adversary, who wasn't paying the right kind, and amount of attention to the Chinese threat.
33. Post August 29-30 and our actions thereafter, Chinese cannot take it for granted that India will not unilaterally take actions in +

@FrankBullit67 + self interest.
34. And here's one more data-point - In recent communication post Lt General level talks, Chinese mentioned that both sides should not add more troops in the sector.
35. Now, why would the Chinese say all this if the idea is to bleed India financially by getting+

@FrankBullit67 + it to commit troops on LAC? Counter-intuitive, no?
36. Well, in my opinion, the reason is that the Chinese have NO MORE troops to commit to eastern Ladakh from their immediately available pool of troops in Xinjiang.
37. If more troops are required, they will have to come from+

@FrankBullit67 + mainland China, more than 2,500+ km away!
38. So, who's spooked whom when it comes to troop deployment?
39. Bottom line is this :
- Chinese planned this stunt with the assumption that it will be business as usual.
- As in, India will protest and cry and whine and then simply+

@FrankBullit67 + accept the fait accompli.
- But just to be on cautious side, the Chinese brought in additional troops, doubling their existing numbers.
- What did not factor was massive Indian counter-mobilization which could actually take the fight to the Chinese.
- And forced them to commit+

@FrankBullit67 + increasingly more number of troops.
- Then Indian action of occupying the Kailash ridge-line south of Pangong Tso lake, plus higher positions on F3-F4 ridgeline, put them on back-foot in this sector.
- So, its not business as usual and Chinese don't know how to extricate +

@FrankBullit67 - themselves from here.
40. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from.
41. This is the ground reality today.