Horrible news. This AM a military offensive by Azerbaijan on #Karabakh frontline. Already a small war. Heavy weapons used, Internet down in Az, Arm. side announced mobilization. Follows rise in bellicose rhetoric from both sides—Karabakh Arm. leader declared today...
2/ that, if Az. "declares war, it will get war." Early indications suggest Baku wants to remake facts on the ground in regions it lost in 1990s. Perhaps tries to seize a moment when int. community is disengaged, US in election season, OSCE leaderless, before winter comes.
3/ Can't overstate how dangerous this is. Two sides are now heavily militarized, able to strike civilian areas and strategic assets as never before. In 2016 they had a “limited” but tragic short war in which 200 people died. Pressure on both to "achieve" more than back then.
4/ New factor this year is that Turkey’s support for Az. is much more explicit than ever before. Russia, despite military alliance with Armenia, more equivocal, because of its strong relationship with Az. (Russian FM Lavrov has already phoned Turkish FM Cavusoglu).
5/ But imperative that internationals express more than “concern,” act now to halt escalation and conflict broadening, that France, US and Russia bury differences over other issues to threaten war has a cost.
6/ For good commentary and objective readouts of situation read (in no particular order) Olesya Vartanyan @Olesya_vArt, Emil Sanamyan @emil_sanamyan, Cavid Aga @cavidaga, Arzu Geybulla @arzugeybulla, Onnik @onewmphoto, @LaurenceBroers Jam News in Russian jam-news.net/ru/
7/ For background. Read my piece from July carnegieeurope.eu/2020/07/17/new…
Context is here ceps.eu/ceps-publicati…
And my last long report from 2016 carnegieeurope.eu/2016/06/16/pri…
Also chathamhouse.org/expert/laurenc…;
and ever-great ICG analysis in
crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
8/ Note to journalists: It’s still Sunday so I will be with my family, won’t be giving interviews today, sorry (May make small exception for good friends) ENDS
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