1/ Re estimate: 1.33 (1.26 - 1.42). Estimated Belgians currently infected: 120K (90K - 190K) <65y, 2200 (1400 - 3000) >65y. At this rate (continuing our current behaviour), estimated COVID-19 deaths until Jan 1 2021: 5000 (3000 - 8000). #COVID19be
2/ Zoomed in version. I added two new charts: estimated age of infected population and estimated IFR (as a result of this change in demography).
3/ The model estimates that the IFR of those infected changed from 1% in March/April to 0.1% now. This seems drastic but can be explained by a relatively modest change in demography of those infected: from an average 40y (+/- 40y) then, to an average 30y (+/- 30y) now.
4/ The model estimates the mean age of infections (or actually, the IFR, from which it calculates back the mean age) from the age distribution of deaths, using age-specific IFR's estimated for the Belgian population by Molenberghs et. al.
5/ The model may be too optimistic (demography-specific IFR underestimated, transmission will increase, ...) or too pessimistic (demography-specific IFR overestimated, treatment improvements not accounted for, cross-immunity, heterogeneous effects, ...).
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