Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 49 to 40 percent among likely voters, in a new Times/Siena poll nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/…
The poll reflects some significant GOP gains in voter registration, and the likely electorate here is just D+4 by registration. But Biden has an overwhelming advantage in the major metropolitan areas, and Trump isn't matching his targets in rural areas, either.
Obviously, it's a hotter result for Biden than I would have guessed heading into this, and it could just be that. I expect we'll be returning for another reading here in fairly short order. In the interim, it'll be interesting to see what ABC/Post has tonight.
Seems like the crosstabs didn't make it on. they'll linked up in the article in a bit, but you can find them here in the interim int.nyt.com/data/documentt…
A few tabs you won't find in the pdf: Trump only holds a 62 to 23 percent lead among registered Republicans in Philly, its suburbs, or Allegheny County (Pittsburgh+burbs)
In a harbinger of a deeply lopsided election night/week count: Biden leads 75-18 among voters who have requested an absentee ballot, while Trump leads by 8 among voters who have not done so
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