My take on key drivers of batt. cost reduction (outside China).
Roughly,
2012~2015: declining JPY/USD.
2012~2017: Pana (18650) & AESC (Leaf) scaling .
2017~18: Pana (GF1/2170) scaling.
2018~: others scaling.
1/x
Volume-weighted ave. may still be dropping, but Tesla itself probably hasn't seem much cost reduction recently, while others are catching up.
Up-to-date METI data (i.e. 18650) here. (note: they include more expensive hybrid cells as well.)
2/x
Personally, I find auto vs. non-auto Li-ion cell cost comparison interesting. You could say that the huge decline in (auto) battery cost early was just auto catching up w/ non-auto (despite hyping by BNEF, etc.)
3/x
I also hear that Pana is struggling to scale up cell production for Honda e & Toyota RAV4 Prime/PHEV, hence their low production #.
Even Toyota, which has PEVE & PPES, is using cells from Blue Energy (Honda-GS Yuasa JV) in its new Venza.
Tight supply all around.
4/x
Although a bit old, here's a nice video from WSJ. ~4:10 for the limit of cost reduction from scaling:
5/x
wsj.com/video/the-secr…
A couple of charts from the video above.
6/x
I brought this up in another thread Yesterday, but you can find a battery cost model that's accessible to regular folks here.
Ch.4.3, but the whole Ch.4 (or the whole thing) is worth reading. Tons of interesting stuff there.
fin/
energy.mit.edu/research/mobil…
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