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Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Kawasaki_KR-1
@KawasakiKR11
A member of Vector Class. https://t.co/4SxltjNBqH
Dec 9, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
RSV hospitalization data from S. Korea.

"Fewer" hospitalization after the skipped season.

The pattern seen in Japan as well (see below).

How come "immunity debt" isn't a thing in E. Asia?

1/ If anything S.Korea had more cases than usual, but fewer hospitalization. That makes sense, given that RSV is worse in <1. Delayed infection is a good thing.

2/
jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10…
Dec 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
What's ironic is that, if you follow the logic of "immunity debt" enthusiasts (charitably, tbf), you end up concluding that "freedom day" was even dumber than we already thought.

1/ For one, we know infection-induced immunity to many of these pathogens is fairly shot-lived. i.e. what happened yrs ago doesn't really matter.

2/
Jul 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Latest genomic surveillance data from Tokyo & Kobe.

Mostly BA.5 at this point, but BA.2.75 also starting to showing up.

For Tokyo, majority of sequences from July are BA.5. Some BA.4/BA.2.12.1 & now BA.2.75.
bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/_res/projects/…
1/ Variant-specific PCR says suspected BA.5 was ~3/4 during 7/5~7/11. Almost all suspected BA.5 for the latest wk (7/12~7/18).

2/
Apr 11, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Mini-thread on JPN Covid mortality data wrt "from" vs. "with".

(Meaning to do this since MHLW advisory board posted some useful data a month ago, so here it is.)

tl;dr: Covid is still the primary cause in majority of reported deaths & Omicron is bad.

1/ MHLW guideline essentially requires all deaths by Covid patients be reported, so the reported #s include some incidental cases. So what % is incidental?

2/
Apr 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
JPN ports of entry VOC screening data (focus on Asia & WW).

-SE Asia, esp. Vietnam, remains problematic.

-Despite all the news on China, most so far are HK, not ML China & total % testing + remains quite low.

First, South, Southeast, Central & East Asia.

1/ Western Asia

2/
Feb 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Omicron not looking so "mild" in Japan.

L -> R
Alpha, Delta & Omicron waves

2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR

Note the differences in Y-axes.

Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.

1/ Image Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.

2/ Image
Oct 3, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A former Sanyo/Pana battery engineer, who was on the team that developed 18650 for Tesla, was interviewed by a Tesla fanboy/BEVangelist about the Battery Day.

TL;DR: Nothing ground-breaking. All are minor improvements IF they can work them out.

$TSLAQ I might get around to summarizing the key points later. Meanwhile, here's the link. The guy is a Tesla owner & a bit of a fanboy himself, but I find his engineer's perspective interesting. Quite different from what lab scientists have said.

$TSLAQ

blog.evsmart.net/tesla/battery-…
Sep 29, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
My take on key drivers of batt. cost reduction (outside China).

Roughly,

2012~2015: declining JPY/USD.

2012~2017: Pana (18650) & AESC (Leaf) scaling .

2017~18: Pana (GF1/2170) scaling.

2018~: others scaling.

1/x
 Volume-weighted ave. may still be dropping, but Tesla itself probably hasn't seem much cost reduction recently, while others are catching up.

Up-to-date METI data (i.e. 18650) here. (note: they include more expensive hybrid cells as well.)
2/x
 ImageImage
Sep 26, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ rush seems muted. Backlog cleared. S/X/3 summary.

Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges. Image
Sep 26, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Where we are.

Whatever we're doing isn't working.

ImageImage Forget plug-ins. Can we have good ol' hybrids first?

Image
Sep 22, 2020 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Q. Why is "million mile" battery important?

A. Because batteries don't last as long as the rest of the car.

So, how long do cars last nowadays?

1/x
 We've all heard/read about ave. age of cars on the road.

Here are some stats. Latest on US is ~12 yrs old.

Note that used cars are often exported from wealthier countries to less wealthier ones. In case of Japan, almost 1/2 are exported, lowering ave. age of cars.

2/x Image
Sep 20, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Sounds like Avigan (favipiravir) trial is done as expected. I'd like to see the final data first, but this will be a good addition. It's cheap ($100~150/person) & should be widely available, as it's already made in Japan & China (& India & Russia, as I understand). It's oral & much much cheaper than remdesivir (IV, $2~3k) & much cheaper.

Major downside is its teratogenicity (causes birth defects), but that shouldn't be an issue for the seniors that are hit the hardest by Covid.
Sep 19, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ rush continuing (though may not be as strong as last yr). Return of demo/loaners. S/X/3 summary.

Some demo/loaners were re-listed. Otherwise, rather quiet on S/X sales off inventory & 3rd party sales. Image
Sep 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A f*cking radiologist from Hoover Institution taking students hostage.

Countries that got the prevalence low have no problem opening schools.

#COVIDIOTS Hoover Institution is a toxic cesspool.
Sep 16, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Provisional MoF export data for Aug.

Battery export from Kinki region to US (mostly 18650 for S/X) down 37% YoY. Something is funny. Maybe they're cutting S/X production?

Export to China was stable.

ImageImage Final MoF export data for Aug.

As we saw in the prov. data, Li-ion battery export from Kinki region to US (i.e. 18650 for S/X) is waaay back down again.

Either Tesla had tons of inventory (unlikely, based on Q2 data) or S/X production is down.

ImageImage
Sep 12, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ delivery on-going. New S/X discounted. S/X/3 summary.

No CPO listed. Many of the S/X inventories that were listed in mid-Aug. were either unlisted (sold or used for demo, etc.) or are slowly discounted. Along w/ the registration data, S/X sales for the Q may be mostly over. Image
Sep 5, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: Q3 delivery has started. S/X/3 summary.

No major mov't on inventory or sales. Image
Sep 4, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
August plug-in sales in Japan: PHEVs outsell BEVs.

BEV: 719
PHEV: 744

Leaf, Outlander PHEV, Prius Prime, RAV4 Prime account for ~80%. The rest are mostly luxury imports. Tesla sold <70. PHEV would easily out-sell BEV, had RAV4 Prime not been severely supply-constrained.
YTD

BEV: 8,241 (0.52%)
PHEV: 7,879 (0.50%)

% is out of non-kei cars (~60% of total auto sales), of which ~37% are (mostly full) HEVs.
Aug 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ delivery push about to begin. S/X/3 summary.

Some movement in inventory, but not clear how many are actual sales. Same for 3rd party sales. Image
Aug 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
JPN #Covid19 2nd wave.

As expected, the case # has been declining for a couple of week. # of deaths is nearing its peak, but prob. not there yet. Hopefully, it peaks at 15~20/d, rather than ~30/d in May.

Not as bad as the Apr wave, as test positivity peeaked ~7% (~12% for Apr). ImageImage As w/ many other places, this wave started in <40 age group & spread to older population. The peak of case # for the older cohort is ~1wk later than the general population. That's one reason I think the # of deaths has not peaked yet. Image
Aug 22, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: First large shipment since Nov. has arrived. S/X/3 summary.

Some new X gone. The first CPO 3. That makes 4 used 3 currently on sale out of ~900 they've sold in a year. Image