Thread by @h_wives

As promised, a thread on renewables and why they can’t work (as is). First of all, it’s important to understand there are 2 types of power production: base load & peak load. Base load is the min power demand throughout the day, & peak load take the fluctuations thru the day

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Natural gas power plants can adjust to fluctuations in demand, and gas peaker units are able to kick on and produce incremental power for just a few hours a month when prices make them economical. The problem with renewables (wind and solar) is there is no way to increase.

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Daily power demand follows a sine curve, with peak around 3-4PM and trough around 3-4AM. This requires some variability in production to avoid blackouts. The opposite of a blackout (oversupply) is negative prices. Someone has to take the power, so producers may have to pay.

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Now how can wind/solar fit in. First let’s look at a power grid fueled by only wind and solar. Every evening you have a blackout as solar production falls off and wind can’t crank up in time. So renewables are no viable for base load capacity.

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What about using wind for peak load with a gas base load? You still end up with an oversupply at trough demand and a shortage at peak demand. This is because wind production is almost perfectly inverse to power demand (cool windy nights, hot dry afternoons).

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This is all a function of a lack of storage. That’s what causes negative prices and blackouts. Notice I didn’t mention hydro because it has a solution to this problem: pump water back up the dam. It’s not frictionless, but it does conserve most of the energy.

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As solar/wind steals share of power production, power markets will just because more volatile because of a lack of storage and a lack of control on production. Hydro can store power and nat gas has control on production. These are the sources of a reliable power grid.

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As it relates to , , and other oil companies, PE/Infra funds, and others looking to renewables in the near future, the returns won’t be there. These sources of power aren’t economic and rely entirely on gov’t subsidies. Not only are they poor financial decisions,

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but they will negatively impact the lives of the people they “serve.” Rolling blackouts in CA are a perfect example of the consequences of shutting down gas power plants in favor of renewables. Companies abandoning natural gas for renewables are taking money from

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the government to line their pockets, while making access to electricity more volatile and expensive. Hopefully, come 2022-23 when oil is back >$60, , , and others will respond to the lack of returns in renewables and pivot back to their 100 year expertise in energy.

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However, until that happens, you’ll see poor returns and the same line of “the technology needs to be developed” when it’s the source that is fundamentally flawed. As a result of #bpNetZero, we are going to see #bpNetZeroEarnings

End of thread
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