New #BrexitDiagram in light of news in the last 24h - that Tory rebellion on the Internal Markets Bill was very limited, and that rules of origin for 🚗🛠 are increasingly problematic in negotiations
Headline numbers
(compared with V4.0.0, 29.09.2020 1530)
No Deal - 53% (⬆️ 5%)
Minimal Deal - 38% (⬇️ 6%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬆️ 1%)
(A note on versioning: this is diagram V4.1.0 - it has all the same routes as V4.0.0, but probabilities have been changed)
Why the change?
Probability of an agreement on the substance by mid-October dropping
Probability Lords manages to adequately amend Internal Market Bill dropping (because Tories in Commons more united than expected)
Reporting on the vote on the Internal Market Bill by @tnewtondunn and on the car industry headaches by @faisalislam both very useful to help inform this version of the diagram. 👍 both of you!
Background for Series 5 is on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever feedback most welcome!
/ends
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