Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BrexitDiagram
Most recents (24)
Let’s have a look into the 🔮 and try to work out what happens from here in the #ToryLeadershipContest
It’s not quite a #BrexitDiagram but my means of thinking is similar
It’s not quite a #BrexitDiagram but my means of thinking is similar
Badenoch will drop out next. It’s not that she’s necessarily the worst performing candidate in the running, but her support overlaps too much with others. Her votes will go to Truss & Mordaunt
Tugendhat will then be the next to go. However much he might have swerved to the right in recent weeks, and be the least tainted by Johnson, he’s ultimately too sensible for the selectorate of MPs. Most of his support can go to Sunak
🥁 It's been a while... but my diagrams are BACK! 🥁
But this time not #BrexitDiagram, but a new series about the German Bundestag Election - #BTW21 and the diagram series will be #BTW21Diagramm
Here's the first version!
Explained in the 🧵
But this time not #BrexitDiagram, but a new series about the German Bundestag Election - #BTW21 and the diagram series will be #BTW21Diagramm
Here's the first version!
Explained in the 🧵
I will update this diagram up until the 26th September election, and even beyond as well if necessary
High resolution PDF and PNG files of the diagrams in English and German, the @drawio XML, and .ods file for the calculations, will always be available:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
High resolution PDF and PNG files of the diagrams in English and German, the @drawio XML, and .ods file for the calculations, will always be available:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
The diagram aims to illustrate what coalition government Germany is likely to get after the election and - by extension of that - who is likely to be Chancellor
Negotiations are likely to be time consuming and complex...
Negotiations are likely to be time consuming and complex...
🥁 Meine Diagramme sind ZURÜCK! 🥁
Aber diesmal nicht #BrexitDiagram, sondern eine neue Serie zur Bundestagswahl - #BTW21 und die Diagrammserie wird den Tag #BTW21Diagramm verwenden
Hier ist die erste Version!
Erklärt in der 🧵
Aber diesmal nicht #BrexitDiagram, sondern eine neue Serie zur Bundestagswahl - #BTW21 und die Diagrammserie wird den Tag #BTW21Diagramm verwenden
Hier ist die erste Version!
Erklärt in der 🧵
Ich werde dieses Diagramm bis zur Wahl aktualisieren, bei Bedarf auch darüber hinaus
Hochauflösende PDF- und PNG-Dateien der Diagramme auf englisch und auf deutsch, das @drawio XML und die .ods-Datei für die Berechnungen werden immer verfügbar sein:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
Hochauflösende PDF- und PNG-Dateien der Diagramme auf englisch und auf deutsch, das @drawio XML und die .ods-Datei für die Berechnungen werden immer verfügbar sein:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
Die Diagramme sollen verdeutlichen, welche Koalitionsregierung Deutschland nach der Wahl voraussichtlich bekommen wird und wer damit voraussichtlich Bundeskanzler wird
Verhandlungen sind wahrscheinlich zeitaufwändig und komplex...
Verhandlungen sind wahrscheinlich zeitaufwändig und komplex...
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector
A short 🧵
1/
A short 🧵
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
Series 3
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Series 4
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
Series 1/2
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
Series 3
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Series 4
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
Confused by the current state of Brexit talks?
Don't fear!
I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram
End Game V3.0.0
Don't fear!
I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram
End Game V3.0.0
This one reflects current developments in talks in Brussels indicating progress towards a Deal - but the big question is whether that is before after Sunday 20 Dec... and if it's not it gets very messy
Outcomes
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4️⃣0️⃣%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3️⃣9️⃣%
Uncertainty until January - 1️⃣0️⃣%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9️⃣%
Deal, ratification later - 2️⃣%
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4️⃣0️⃣%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3️⃣9️⃣%
Uncertainty until January - 1️⃣0️⃣%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9️⃣%
Deal, ratification later - 2️⃣%
OK, for your enjoyment, information or pain ahead of a crucial 48 hours in all things #Brexit, a new, mini #BrexitDiagram
This one only seeks to answer one question: will there be a Deal by the end of the year, or No Deal?
Headline Figures
Deal 1️⃣8️⃣%
No Deal 8️⃣2️⃣%
This one only seeks to answer one question: will there be a Deal by the end of the year, or No Deal?
Headline Figures
Deal 1️⃣8️⃣%
No Deal 8️⃣2️⃣%
It assesses 4 things:
- outcome of today's Frost-Barnier talks
- does UK Govt fight on IM Bill or not
- Johnson-vdL 📞 on Monday
- Finance Bill Tuesday
- outcome of today's Frost-Barnier talks
- does UK Govt fight on IM Bill or not
- Johnson-vdL 📞 on Monday
- Finance Bill Tuesday
It does *not* assess the capacity for side deals or for implementation periods, or assess what No Deal would look like or how long that might last - some thoughts about that on my blog here jonworth.eu/notes-on-the-t…
OK, time for a deep breath
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
OK, so we now know the European Commission has sent a Letter of Notice to the UK, giving UK 1 month to respond...
...which is handily *after* the House of Lords has voted on the Internal Market Bill
Summed up in the new #BrexitDiagram V5.0.0
...which is handily *after* the House of Lords has voted on the Internal Market Bill
Summed up in the new #BrexitDiagram V5.0.0
Note also: negotiations are *not* going to stop as a result of today's announcement, but do up the pressure on the House of Lords. Those changes are reflected in the diagram.
Also an acknowledgement of an error on my part in previous diagrams: I had *wrongly* assumed that as the tone from Brussels has been much more conciliatory for the past few weeks, the EU would *not* take legal action - and hence did not put a number on it...
New #BrexitDiagram in light of news in the last 24h - that Tory rebellion on the Internal Markets Bill was very limited, and that rules of origin for 🚗🛠 are increasingly problematic in negotiations
Headline numbers
(compared with V4.0.0, 29.09.2020 1530)
No Deal - 53% (⬆️ 5%)
Minimal Deal - 38% (⬇️ 6%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬆️ 1%)
(A note on versioning: this is diagram V4.1.0 - it has all the same routes as V4.0.0, but probabilities have been changed)
(compared with V4.0.0, 29.09.2020 1530)
No Deal - 53% (⬆️ 5%)
Minimal Deal - 38% (⬇️ 6%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬆️ 1%)
(A note on versioning: this is diagram V4.1.0 - it has all the same routes as V4.0.0, but probabilities have been changed)
Why the change?
Probability of an agreement on the substance by mid-October dropping
Probability Lords manages to adequately amend Internal Market Bill dropping (because Tories in Commons more united than expected)
Probability of an agreement on the substance by mid-October dropping
Probability Lords manages to adequately amend Internal Market Bill dropping (because Tories in Commons more united than expected)
And thanks to excellent input from @laurensdk and @Usherwood there's already a new #BrexitReality
Series 5, V4.0.0
This one changes only the % very fractionally, but better covers the interplay between progress in Brussels and the IM Bill UK side
Series 5, V4.0.0
This one changes only the % very fractionally, but better covers the interplay between progress in Brussels and the IM Bill UK side
Headline numbers
(compared with V3.0.0, 29.09.2020 1030)
No Deal - 48% (⬇️ 1%)
Minimal Deal - 44% (⬆️ 1%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (↔️)
Changes mostly due to changed combinations of options in this diagram
(compared with V3.0.0, 29.09.2020 1030)
No Deal - 48% (⬇️ 1%)
Minimal Deal - 44% (⬆️ 1%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (↔️)
Changes mostly due to changed combinations of options in this diagram
Also - as ever - good and thoughtful feedback is very welcome! That was exactly what Simon and Laurens did, and I was happy to integrate their ideas into the diagram!
Headline numbers
(compared with V2.0.0, 18.09.2020)
No Deal - 49% (⬆️ 3%)
Minimal Deal - 43% (⬆️ 3%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬇️ 6%)
Essentially rather stable - but threat to remove whip from Tories has receded, hence change to latter
(compared with V2.0.0, 18.09.2020)
No Deal - 49% (⬆️ 3%)
Minimal Deal - 43% (⬆️ 3%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬇️ 6%)
Essentially rather stable - but threat to remove whip from Tories has receded, hence change to latter
The central point: what does the House of Lords do to the Internal Market Bill, and can the UK side manage to reassure the EU - either by letting the Lords gut the Bill, or by finding an agreement - that can lessen worries on the EU side?
Thanks @ZNConsulting for running the #EUinfluencer event again this year, and I am happy to finally triumph over @Berlaymonster 💪
But seriously, we need to think a bit more about this idea.
If I am influencing anything in EU affairs, it sure doesn't feel like it.
A thread...
But seriously, we need to think a bit more about this idea.
If I am influencing anything in EU affairs, it sure doesn't feel like it.
A thread...
I am lucky. I was an early adopter of Twitter. I started using this tool before loads of people in Brussels had even heard of it.
That's how I have 60k followers.
It's not because I am any good.
It's because I was early.
That's how I have 60k followers.
It's not because I am any good.
It's because I was early.
That - tying into the discussion with @KingKritick & @JusticeLeagueEU - is something I see as a responsibility.
That people gave me the benefit of the doubt to help me get a decent audience means I ought to act towards others the way I'd expect them to act towards me.
That people gave me the benefit of the doubt to help me get a decent audience means I ought to act towards others the way I'd expect them to act towards me.
So what better way to end a fascinating week in matters #Brexit than with a new #BrexitDiagram?
Series 5, V2.0.0 - updated in light of the Number 10 conceding on the Neill Amendment, but House of Lords now examining the Internal Market Bill only in October
Series 5, V2.0.0 - updated in light of the Number 10 conceding on the Neill Amendment, but House of Lords now examining the Internal Market Bill only in October
Headline numbers
(compared with V1.0.0, 15.09.2020)
No Deal - 46% (⬇️ 12%)
Minimal Deal - 40% (⬆️ 4%)
Party problems for Johnson - 14% (⬆️ 8%)
(compared with V1.0.0, 15.09.2020)
No Deal - 46% (⬇️ 12%)
Minimal Deal - 40% (⬆️ 4%)
Party problems for Johnson - 14% (⬆️ 8%)
There is also a design change in this version - I am using the Curved Arrow function in @drawio rather than the Rounded Arrow function
The diagram is more elegant (perhaps the most elegant #BrexitDiagram ever?) but is it as easy to follow? Do let me know!
The diagram is more elegant (perhaps the most elegant #BrexitDiagram ever?) but is it as easy to follow? Do let me know!
Having foolishly made this thing, I am immediately regretting it.
As with previous series of #BrexitDiagram, the cost-benefit is really poor.
As with previous series of #BrexitDiagram, the cost-benefit is really poor.
The amount of time taken to make the diagram, versus the rather meagre Twitter and blog reaction, is not good.
Other than from @Usherwood there is no engagement whatsoever from anyone else in the quasi intellectual UK-Brexit Twitter circle.
Other than from @Usherwood there is no engagement whatsoever from anyone else in the quasi intellectual UK-Brexit Twitter circle.
Think tankers prefer to retweet think tankers.
Lawyers engage with lawyers.
Trade nerds talk to trade nerds.
Journalists - especially UK ones - have never paid any attention to these diagrams, and I can't see why that might change now.
Lawyers engage with lawyers.
Trade nerds talk to trade nerds.
Journalists - especially UK ones - have never paid any attention to these diagrams, and I can't see why that might change now.
I was not keen on embarking on another diagram marathon...
9 months not having to draw a serious diagram have been joyous...
But when Brexit gets rough, there's no option by to make a #BrexitDiagram - so here's Series 5, V1.0.0
"Trade Deal or No Deal by the end of 2020?"
9 months not having to draw a serious diagram have been joyous...
But when Brexit gets rough, there's no option by to make a #BrexitDiagram - so here's Series 5, V1.0.0
"Trade Deal or No Deal by the end of 2020?"
Background for the new Series 5 is on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever, input is very welcome - by all means tell me what I get wrong with these diagrams, but saying "you're wrong" doesn't help me very much - please tell me what route or what probability is wrong
Also feel free to share these diagrams, or use the data to make your own
Also feel free to share these diagrams, or use the data to make your own
So the #Bundesliga ⚽️🇩🇪 is about to re-start, while games are still off elsewhere in 🇪🇺
Explaining things that happen in Germany to non-German audiences, and doing things with diagrams, is my business
So here's the "How to choose a Bundesliga Team" Diagram V1.0.0
Explaining things that happen in Germany to non-German audiences, and doing things with diagrams, is my business
So here's the "How to choose a Bundesliga Team" Diagram V1.0.0
High resolution PNGs, PDFs and draw(dot)io XML is here:
bit.ly/ChooseBundesli…
Thanks @jarrettreckse for the idea, and @KitHolden & @sundersays for input
Happy to make further changes!
And no, unlike #BrexitDiagram, I am not putting odds on who's going to win!
bit.ly/ChooseBundesli…
Thanks @jarrettreckse for the idea, and @KitHolden & @sundersays for input
Happy to make further changes!
And no, unlike #BrexitDiagram, I am not putting odds on who's going to win!
The team name box for Schalke was missing in V1.0.0, now corrected in V1.0.1
Und jetzt auch auf deutsch!
Wer wird #CDUVorsitz gewinnen? Und wer wird Kanzlerkandidat?
Ich habe ein Diagramm dafür gebastelt
Wer wird #CDUVorsitz gewinnen? Und wer wird Kanzlerkandidat?
Ich habe ein Diagramm dafür gebastelt
Ist wie mit meinem #BrexitDiagram - ich versuche alle mögliche Optionen zu skizzieren und ich habe jeder Option Wahrscheinlichkeiten gegeben
#CDUVorsitz Wahrscheinlichkeiten
@ArminLaschet 65.5%
@_FriedrichMerz 24%
@n_roettgen 10.5%
Kanzlerkandidat Wahrscheinlichkeiten
@ArminLaschet 49%
@_FriedrichMerz 18%
@n_roettgen 8%
@Markus_Soeder 26% (CSU)
@ArminLaschet 65.5%
@_FriedrichMerz 24%
@n_roettgen 10.5%
Kanzlerkandidat Wahrscheinlichkeiten
@ArminLaschet 49%
@_FriedrichMerz 18%
@n_roettgen 8%
@Markus_Soeder 26% (CSU)
So are you confused by #CDUVorsitz #CDU and the battle to succeed AKK (as party leader) and Merkel (as CDU-CSU candidate for Chancellor of 🇩🇪)?
I'm here to help - in the only way I can - with a diagram!
I'm here to help - in the only way I can - with a diagram!
For anyone who saw my #BrexitDiagram series in 2019, you know how this works
Plot out all the routes and the options, and put some probabilities on each of the routes, and work it all out
Plot out all the routes and the options, and put some probabilities on each of the routes, and work it all out
This is V1.0.0 of the CDU Leadership 2020 diagram. Please give me your feedback on this, and tell me what's right and wrong, and what's missing, and I will update it accordingly!
What has Brexit taught me?
It has taught me how to push Remainers' emotional buttons on Twitter
It has taught me how to push Remainers' emotional buttons on Twitter
Quick cheap shots that play to visceral emotions
These were my "Top Tweet" for engagement in 4 months in 2019:
Today also marks closure for #BrexitDiagram
This is the last one I ever did
And Series 4, like Series 3 and Series 2 before it proved to be... spot on (Series 1 didn't have probabilities)
This is the last one I ever did
And Series 4, like Series 3 and Series 2 before it proved to be... spot on (Series 1 didn't have probabilities)
Series 4 showed Brexit with Johnson's Deal as most likely
That's what we now get (between now and 31 Jan)
Series 3 foresaw a General Election called
That's what we got (in October)
Series 2 had Brexit Delay
That's what we got (in March/April)
That's what we now get (between now and 31 Jan)
Series 3 foresaw a General Election called
That's what we got (in October)
Series 2 had Brexit Delay
That's what we got (in March/April)
Series 4 can all be found here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
Series 3 are all here (this was probably my best series!):
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Series 1 and 2 are here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
Series 3 are all here (this was probably my best series!):
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Series 1 and 2 are here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
And now #BrexitDiagram has been adjusted in light of Electoral Calculus work in Northern Ireland - now based on 8 DUP, 7 SF and 3 Alliance seats won there
This is now in V3.0.0 of the diagram
This is now in V3.0.0 of the diagram
The change is first to the majority numbers - my baseline is still that DUP will side with neither bloc. But with DUP down to 8, and possibly 3 Alliance MPs, this means Tories now need 322 for working majority of 5
Other majority numbers on the diagram also adjusted accordingly
Other majority numbers on the diagram also adjusted accordingly
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.2.0 last week):
78% (⬆️, was 69%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
10% (⬆️, was 9%) Stalemate
12% (⬇️, was 22%) 2nd Referendum
78% (⬆️, was 69%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
10% (⬆️, was 9%) Stalemate
12% (⬇️, was 22%) 2nd Referendum
OK, so it had to be done (or @syrpis prompted it!)
Using the #BrexitDiagram tech to make a #TacticalVoteDiagram!
If you want to vote tactically at #GE2019 this is what you need to do!
Using the #BrexitDiagram tech to make a #TacticalVoteDiagram!
If you want to vote tactically at #GE2019 this is what you need to do!
Note that this is done independently by me - it is not associated with any tactical voting site or recommendation!
As ever with my diagrams feedback is most welcome!
(But if your reaction to tactical voting is 🤬 then save your rant for some other time)
As ever with my diagrams feedback is most welcome!
(But if your reaction to tactical voting is 🤬 then save your rant for some other time)
As ever all of this is designed for sharing and re-using!
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…
Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…
Blog post with the tactical vote guide and all the files:
jonworth.eu/tacticalvote/
/ends
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…
Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…
Blog post with the tactical vote guide and all the files:
jonworth.eu/tacticalvote/
/ends
New #BrexitDiagram V2.2.0
The first since Farage announced he is standing down Brexit Party candidates in the constituencies the Tories won in 2017, so Betfair odds lean further towards a Conservative majority
The first since Farage announced he is standing down Brexit Party candidates in the constituencies the Tories won in 2017, so Betfair odds lean further towards a Conservative majority
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.1.0 from 10 November):
69% (⬆️ 6%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
9% (⬇️ 3%) Stalemate
22% (⬇️ 3%) 2nd Referendum
69% (⬆️ 6%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
9% (⬇️ 3%) Stalemate
22% (⬇️ 3%) 2nd Referendum
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…
Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…
Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
/ends
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…
Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…
Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
/ends
Some changes to the Betfair Exchange odds over the weekend mean a new #BrexitDiagram - now V2.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.0.0):
63% (⬆️ 8%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
12% (↔️ no change) Stalemate
33% (⬇️ 8%) 2nd Referendum
63% (⬆️ 8%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
12% (↔️ no change) Stalemate
33% (⬇️ 8%) 2nd Referendum
Honestly I do not know what to make of this, or if it makes any sense.
This comes *after* the news of the #RemainAlliance and after the Johnson NI gaffe. You'd think those might damage Tory prospects, but the numbers go the other way.
This comes *after* the news of the #RemainAlliance and after the Johnson NI gaffe. You'd think those might damage Tory prospects, but the numbers go the other way.
