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So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments
tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.
Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension
Read 6 tweets
So @timjoyce11 rightly pointed out that #BrexitDiagram V27.1 did not adequately cover what would happen if May's Deal were brought back on 19 Oct with a #PeoplesVote attached...

V27.2 tries to cover this
We know that @hilarybennmp would want to try this route on 19 Oct, it's hard to know if there's a majority for it (it's ages since @peterkyle tried similar)

Plus what would happen were it successful has not even been debated - would Johnson actually do this? Or sooner resign?
Chances of a GE slip a little, chances of a #PeoplesVote increase a little

High res image here:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
Thanks to feedback from @Astro_Wright (who rightly pointed out I was missing an arrow that Corbyn could continue to avoid a VONC post-Queen's Speech), there's a new #BrexitDiagram V27.1 - this doesn't change the outcomes though
Reminder how all this compares to last week:
3% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
8% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
10% 🆕 Stalemate
48% ⬆️ General Election 2019
14% ↔️ General Election 2020
14% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
3% ⬆️ Brexit with Deal
What's caused the changes?

Essentially it's because now all the decisions UK side will have to happen after the European Council, and working out the precise sequencing of each stage is complex
Read 4 tweets
🤯

Sometimes #Brexit just gets a whole lot more complex

And that makes the #BrexitDiagram a whole load worse...

New version 27 - now a massive 5930x8318 pixels in size, to make sense of it all!
So what changed here?
- the @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry case
- negotiations close to breaking down in Brussels
- the Govt suggesting the Commons will sit Saturday 19 Oct, and how this plays with the Queen's Speech and vote on that
All of this has the chances of No Deal, #PeoplesVote and Revoke slipping a bit, the chances of a General Election steady in comparison to last week. And a new entry - that all this ends up with more stalemate has a 10% chance
Read 5 tweets
Sorry to keep coming back to this, but prorogation and the schedule for 14-22 October in the Commons *can* give us crucial clues as to what the Govt is trying to do on #Brexit
If this were a *normal* prorogation and Queen’s Speech, the speech would be Monday 14 Oct and the vote on it either Monday 21 Oct or Tuesday 22 Oct

The Commons would normally NOT sit on Friday 18 Oct

But these aren’t normal times
Other things get in the way...

Thu 17 & Fri 18 Oct - European Council

Sat 19 Oct - Benn Act deadline to extend

Mon 21 Oct - nobile officium returns to Court if govt doesn’t comply with Benn Act
Read 14 tweets
OK folks

Take a very deep breath

The new #BrexitDiagram V26, redesigned from scratch, is here

This one is, well, complicated. But the conclusions are fascinating
The root cause of the major changes is NOT Johnson's speech, and is NOT the bad reaction in Brussels to the Government's Brexit "plans"

The change is the news that the Commons will be prorogued next week

That limits the time to do *anything* before the 17 Oct European Council
That means the Benn Act is going to have to work as-is. And any effort to oust Johnson is then going to have to be last minute

Also with less than a month to go, I now have labelled weeks on the diagram (top to bottom), and UK and EU side (left and right)
Read 5 tweets
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
Read 5 tweets
Slightly updated #BrexitDiagram V24.2 this morning

Based on news from @peston that Labour MPs are now keener on a 2nd referendum than a General Election, and that Qs about how to sort out a caretaker government persist
Probabilities and trends:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
Art 50 Revoked - 8% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - -% ↔️
GE 2019 - 52% ⬇️⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 15% ⬆️⬆️
As ever .png, .pdf, .ods and .drawio XML on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
Time for the next #BrexitDiagram - Series 3, Version 24 - 30th September

And it's one of those ones I dislike making - where all the options get more complex, and I have to add loads of arrows and boxes...
This one tries to cover the quandaries the opposition faces this week - to VONC or not to VONC. And then if VONC happens, what happens if Johnson refuses to go? It's all in here, as clearly as I can manage it (thanks @djm_black and @davidallengreen for the prompting)
Last week's rancid debate in Parliament (and Brussels reactions) lowers the chances of a Deal still further, and discussions with @NvOndarza and @paul0evans1 have led to to me adding a new end box - General Election in 2020
Read 5 tweets
OK, with the news that Corbyn and Swinson want more reassurance that an Article 50 Extension will be guaranteed before going for a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) there is a new #BrexitDiagram - V23
This adds a series of new options top left to cover this new way forward

It has negligible impact on the overall outcome in comparison to V22 (max +/- 1% for each outcome)

*But* it increases chances that Johnson lives to see another day, and makes it to 17 Oct as PM - now 36%
And by now you know the drill: all the high res images etc. are on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
OK, so here is #BrexitDiagram post-Supreme Court ruling, and in light of Corbyn and others calling for Johnson to resign, but in his first statement saying he is still intent on getting a Deal

Series 3, Version 22
Now we know the outcome of the Supreme Court case, it simplifies the diagram a lot.

The major questions now: does Johnson resign (probably not) and then does he face a Vote of No Confidence now (more likely than not I think)
Even if Johnson manages to see it through to the European Council on 17 October (only a 25% chance I think now), he could then *still* face a Vote of No Confidence afterwards.
Read 7 tweets
As a result of a series of questions I keep getting about #BrexitDiagram I have now written a blog post about why I make these diagrams, and how they might be useful:
jonworth.eu/the-enduring-v…
In short: what the options *are* and the order of those options, is more important than the odds on the nodes.

That means that it's possible for me to work out what is important - I can then safely avoid having to interpret the latest words from Barclay or Juncker.
While the probabilities necessarily involve a fair amount of educated guessing, it is still I think a useful process - and the second series predicted a Brexit Delay and that's what happened

The current series predicts a General Election... and we're almost there I think
Read 5 tweets
So @BenedictWesson suggested to me I ought to make #BrexitDiagram versions for each #UKSupremeCourt possible outcome

I have now done that, adapting V21 of the diagram accordingly

The results are *fascinating*
tl;dr - if prorogation is justiciable, then this
First the original V21, with some minor amendments to the graphics

This has a .7 chance prorogation is justiciable, .3 that it is not

This gives outcomes:
2% - No Deal 31 Oct
4% - Revoke
2% - Brexit with Deal
86% - General Election
6% - #PeoplesVote
Read 8 tweets
New #BrexitDiagram V21

Builds on the version earlier today - @DanielAtkinson7 helpfully pointed out some routes I was missing

Pannick's summing up has influenced this version, as has @DinahRoseQC's view of the Supreme Court Case, and @euro_jonathan on emergency legislation
The accumulative effect of all these changes - other than making the diagram more complex(!) - is for chances of a Deal or No Deal, and Revoke, to edge down a little, and a GE edges up a little more.

But keep the suggestions coming people!
The excellent suggestion to make different versions of the diagram for each Supreme Court outcome from @BenedictWesson will have to wait for tomorrow... out of time tonight.

As ever high resolution PNG and PDF files, the XML and ODS are all here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
At the end of a remarkable week, here is #BrexitDiagram V19

This one adds what *might* happen in the Supreme Court 17 September, and the consequences of that for different #Brexit outcomes
Note: I am not a lawyer, so I have hedged my bets - putting the two outcomes from the Court of Session and the High Court at .4 probability to then be confirmed by the Supreme Court, and .1 for prorogation ruled illegal and .1 for it ruled legal
Also as talk of a General Election has died down from Johnson, and opposition parties ponder what to do during prorogation, there are some changes to the probabilities of the various outcomes
Read 5 tweets
I have been trying to get my head around today's #Brexit news - on the court cases and forthcoming #Yellowhammer release (or not)

So that resulted in a new, simple #BrexitDiagram just for these decisions
I can't put probabilities on these yet - I just want to get the routes and options right first.

My guess would be that "non justiciable" would be the case outcome, and "heavily redacted" the #Yellowhammer outcome - but happy for arguments to the contrary
And as ever high res images and files on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
What do the votes late on 9 Oct, and the prorogation of Parliament, mean for #Brexit?

It means a 15 October election is now ⛔️

The wider implications are on V18 of my #BrexitDiagram
The major issue is now:
What does Johnson do?

He has been mandate to seek an Article 50 extension. But will he do so? Would he sooner break the law, or resign, instead?
Breaking the law leads to a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) when Parliament resumes on 14 October

Resigning leads to a temporary administration, and then to a General Election later in the autumn
Read 5 tweets
#BrexitDiagram V16, updated with the news overnight that Labour's position against a 15 Oct election is hardening, and also adding the option that the Government might VONC itself
The impact of this is to make an election on 29 Oct or later much more likely, and an election on 15 Oct much less likely

Cumulative odds of an election this autumn: 87%
Cumulative odds of a Deal: 5%
Odds of No Deal this autumn: 3%
Of course all of this has the caveat that an election might lead to a Deal, or No Deal, but I cannot begin to predict how a General Election will go

If anything changes during the day I'll update this further

As ever all the docs, high res images here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
New, redesigned #BrexitDiagram V15

Now arrow width corresponds to accumulated probability (was previously according to the probability at a node)

Headline: election after 31 Oct the most likely outcome
Why the change?

When @daserste @ardmoma used the diagram on TV this morning, they highlighted the most likely routes - and it worked! So I have adapted their approach for this redesigned version
And while it's fun to go "oooh, look, this whole thing is complex!", my aim is to actually *explain* Brexit and make things clearer. I think the redesigned version does this better

I have also tried to incorporate some of @ahaufstop's design tips - many thanks!
Read 4 tweets
Right

After confusing myself over and over, and lots of fiddling to make this, and even now including breaking news that the Cherry case failed...

V14 of the #BrexitDiagram is here!
Sorry, but this one is really messy, even by my standards
Importantly there are now 2 main General Election outcomes:
- before 17 Oct (16 Oct probable): 30%
- late Oct or later: 52%
Add in a post-Deal election route and chances of GE now at 84% total
Read 6 tweets
So the new #BrexitDiagram is ready (V12) - updated in light of this morning's shenanigans about prorogation until 14 October

The impact? Makes a General Election a little more likely, and also more routes point to a VONC around 14/15 October
Note that choosing 14 October (rather than say 1 November) as date for Queen's Speech is significant - it means there is still some room for Parliament to stop No Deal after the prorogation
As ever feedback is v welcome, especially on likelihood on individual nodes

And as ever, .png .pdf .ods and .xml of all versions on my blog here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
A few weeks ago it looked like VONC was the chosen route after the summer recess...

... now it's a legislative route instead.

This has meant major restructuring of the #BrexitDiagram - and even by my standards this is an ugly one - Series 3 V11.
This one sees increasing chances of both a General Election (now at 63%) and No Deal (now at 20%)

It assumes legislative efforts to stop No Deal are more likely to work than not (.6 to .4), and if there is a VONC in October it is also .6 to .4 likely to pass
There is a new section on prorogation of Parliament, and if this could be stopped - this is very sketchy until more is known about the @JolyonMaugham case (thanks @ProfKAArmstrong and @StevePeers for explanations here)
Read 6 tweets
Thanks to this from @paulmasonnews there's now a V10.2 of my #BrexitDiagram, putting chances of an early VONC lower and prioritising legislative efforts to stop No Deal

This makes a few changes to the outcome

- chances of a General Election slip further
- chances of No Deal increase
- chances UK demands Art 50 extension w/o clear rationale increase
While I sympathise with this thinking - that thwarting No Deal makes sense to do first, tactically - it can cause headaches later, for the EU has already granted a 6 month extension - will it just do that again, w/o an election or referendum? Not sure
Read 4 tweets
There was quite some critique my latest #BrexitDiagram in that it does not feature option that Vote of No Confidence (VONC) fails, no alternative government can be formed, and Johnson just runs down the clock...

... meaning No Deal happens by default before a GE happens
This, I think, is because we have been thinking about these problems in procedural and legal terms, not in political terms.
If the schedule were as follows:
- VONC passes on Tue 3 Sept
- 14 days expire Tue 17 Sept
- 🇬🇧 crashes out of 🇪🇺 31 Oct
- GE on 31 Oct or 7 Nov
how would it play out?
Read 9 tweets

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