Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BrexitDiagram

Most recents (24)

So the #Bundesliga ⚽️🇩🇪 is about to re-start, while games are still off elsewhere in 🇪🇺

Explaining things that happen in Germany to non-German audiences, and doing things with diagrams, is my business

So here's the "How to choose a Bundesliga Team" Diagram V1.0.0
High resolution PNGs, PDFs and draw(dot)io XML is here:
bit.ly/ChooseBundesli…

Thanks @jarrettreckse for the idea, and @KitHolden & @sundersays for input

Happy to make further changes!

And no, unlike #BrexitDiagram, I am not putting odds on who's going to win!
The team name box for Schalke was missing in V1.0.0, now corrected in V1.0.1
Read 4 tweets
Und jetzt auch auf deutsch!

Wer wird #CDUVorsitz gewinnen? Und wer wird Kanzlerkandidat?

Ich habe ein Diagramm dafür gebastelt
Ist wie mit meinem #BrexitDiagram - ich versuche alle mögliche Optionen zu skizzieren und ich habe jeder Option Wahrscheinlichkeiten gegeben
#CDUVorsitz Wahrscheinlichkeiten
@ArminLaschet 65.5%
@_FriedrichMerz 24%
@n_roettgen 10.5%

Kanzlerkandidat Wahrscheinlichkeiten
@ArminLaschet 49%
@_FriedrichMerz 18%
@n_roettgen 8%
@Markus_Soeder 26% (CSU)
Read 4 tweets
So are you confused by #CDUVorsitz #CDU and the battle to succeed AKK (as party leader) and Merkel (as CDU-CSU candidate for Chancellor of 🇩🇪)?

I'm here to help - in the only way I can - with a diagram!
For anyone who saw my #BrexitDiagram series in 2019, you know how this works

Plot out all the routes and the options, and put some probabilities on each of the routes, and work it all out
This is V1.0.0 of the CDU Leadership 2020 diagram. Please give me your feedback on this, and tell me what's right and wrong, and what's missing, and I will update it accordingly!
Read 6 tweets
What has Brexit taught me?

It has taught me how to push Remainers' emotional buttons on Twitter
Quick cheap shots that play to visceral emotions
Read 10 tweets
Today also marks closure for #BrexitDiagram

This is the last one I ever did

And Series 4, like Series 3 and Series 2 before it proved to be... spot on (Series 1 didn't have probabilities)
Series 4 showed Brexit with Johnson's Deal as most likely
That's what we now get (between now and 31 Jan)

Series 3 foresaw a General Election called
That's what we got (in October)

Series 2 had Brexit Delay
That's what we got (in March/April)
Series 4 can all be found here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

Series 3 are all here (this was probably my best series!):
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Series 1 and 2 are here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
Read 6 tweets
And now #BrexitDiagram has been adjusted in light of Electoral Calculus work in Northern Ireland - now based on 8 DUP, 7 SF and 3 Alliance seats won there

This is now in V3.0.0 of the diagram
The change is first to the majority numbers - my baseline is still that DUP will side with neither bloc. But with DUP down to 8, and possibly 3 Alliance MPs, this means Tories now need 322 for working majority of 5

Other majority numbers on the diagram also adjusted accordingly
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.2.0 last week):
78% (⬆️, was 69%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
10% (⬆️, was 9%) Stalemate
12% (⬇️, was 22%) 2nd Referendum
Read 5 tweets
OK, so it had to be done (or @syrpis prompted it!)

Using the #BrexitDiagram tech to make a #TacticalVoteDiagram!

If you want to vote tactically at #GE2019 this is what you need to do!
Note that this is done independently by me - it is not associated with any tactical voting site or recommendation!

As ever with my diagrams feedback is most welcome!

(But if your reaction to tactical voting is 🤬 then save your rant for some other time)
As ever all of this is designed for sharing and re-using!

High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…

Blog post with the tactical vote guide and all the files:
jonworth.eu/tacticalvote/

/ends
Read 3 tweets
New #BrexitDiagram V2.2.0

The first since Farage announced he is standing down Brexit Party candidates in the constituencies the Tories won in 2017, so Betfair odds lean further towards a Conservative majority
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.1.0 from 10 November):
69% (⬆️ 6%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
9% (⬇️ 3%) Stalemate
22% (⬇️ 3%) 2nd Referendum
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
Some changes to the Betfair Exchange odds over the weekend mean a new #BrexitDiagram - now V2.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.0.0):
63% (⬆️ 8%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
12% (↔️ no change) Stalemate
33% (⬇️ 8%) 2nd Referendum
Honestly I do not know what to make of this, or if it makes any sense.

This comes *after* the news of the #RemainAlliance and after the Johnson NI gaffe. You'd think those might damage Tory prospects, but the numbers go the other way.
Read 6 tweets
Sometimes when you are making #BrexitDiagram you cannot see the wood for the trees

@tnewtondunn was the first to notice an error with my majority calculations that no-one else had noticed in V1.0.0 and V1.1.0

So these are now corrected in V2.0.0
The essential error was that I had double subtracted some NI MPs from my totals, making my majority numbers in the middle part of the diagram were wrong. This is all now corrected - thanks Tom! 👍

There are a few other minor text changes too
The recalculation also allows me to narrow scope of the messy outcomes on the diagram - these are now for the Conservatives winning 300 to 319 seats (was 290 to 319)

The base scenario assumes the DUP (with 10 MPs) backs neither Johnson nor an opposition PM, so majority is 316
Read 5 tweets
Some changes in the Betfair Exchange odds for number of Conservative seats today, and these have been fed into #BrexitDiagram Series 4 - now V1.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V1.0.0):
57% (⬇️ 3%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
15% (⬇️ 1%) Stalemate
28% (⬆️ 4%) 2nd Referendum
Please note the new versioning here.

Changes to the diagram structure will be reflected by changes to the first number.

Changes just in probabilities at nodes, the second number.

Correction of text only, the third number.

This is V1.1.0 - i.e. new odds compared to V1.0.0
Read 4 tweets
OK, so here we go!

#BrexitDiagram Series 4, V1.0.0

The first one since #GE19 was called
Headline figures:
60% - Brexit with a Deal 31 Jan
16% - Stalemate
24% - 2nd Referendum
There is a full explanation of the new Series 4 here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

But I will summarise in this thread
Read 8 tweets
OK

I can delay no more

I need to make #BrexitDiagram Series 4 - about what happens now the General Election is called
The essence of the diagram is going to be this: to plot various General Election outcomes through to various Brexit outcomes
Before I try to diagram this, I need to work out the GE outcomes that would then possibly deliver different Brexit outcomes
Read 10 tweets
There was a guy with a thing called #BrexitDiagram

In May he started the third series of these diagrams

Sometimes he wondered if it was time well invested
In version 1 on 22/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 54%
In version 2.1 on 25/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%
Read 45 tweets
We have *progress* 🎉 🥳

2 Brexit outcomes eliminated from the #BrexitDiagram due to this evening's news that Johnson has written to Tusk confirming the Extension

Diagram now updated to V33.1

(Oh and 5 mins of your time on this would be better than listening to the Commons!)
In comparison to this morning
⛔️% (was negligible) No Deal 31 Oct
⛔️% (was 2%) Revoke by 31 Oct
5% ⬆️ Stalemate
⛔️% (was ⛔️) Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
71% ⬆️General Election 2019
15% ↔️ General Election 2020
9% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
Read 3 tweets
Yesterday's #BrexitDiagram V32 was made before it was reported DUP *will* back the Queen's Speech (I had them as against)

I still think - just - the QS vote will be against now, but this is in V32.1, as is opinion in Labour against a General Election hardening
In comparison to yesterday
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
39% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
43% ⬇️⬇️General Election 2019
13% ↔️ General Election 2020
2% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
I am aware my "Stalemate" outcome needs some more work - it needs to cover how a new Programme Motion could work, and whether a 2nd Referendum might get a majority. But those are tasks for another day!
Read 4 tweets
So after yesterday's tension, today's confusion...

#BrexitDiagram V32 should help you through this!

Prepared for this evening's #UDEbrexit event with @OSchwarzUDE in Duisburg
In comparison to yesterday
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
36% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
47% ⬇️⬇️⬇️ General Election 2019
13% ⬆️⬆️ General Election 2020
2% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
The ordering of this one is important.

Based on what @JenniferMerode @nick_gutteridge @BrunoBrussels and others are reporting, the EU will only decide Friday on an extension

That means a Queen's Speech vote should come first
Read 6 tweets
So it's been quite a day

2nd Reading approved
Programme Motion defeated

Which is what V31 of #BrexitDiagram this morning said would likely happen

Here's V31.1, updated in light of today
In comparison to this morning:
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
30% ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
64% ↔️ General Election 2019
2% ⬇️ General Election 2020
2% ⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
The problem for the Government now is - given more time - they cannot avoid the Queen's Speech issue returning, and they face the danger of a Vote of No Confidence

A General Election might well be a way out
Read 5 tweets
Using my time on the Eurostar to London for "Super Saturday" to make the latest #BrexitDiagram V30

This one covers the impact of the Letwin Amendment and how that impacts overall #Brexit outcomes

This is really important - as I explain in the thread
All the media focus has been on how MPs will vote on the Deal Johnson got in Brussels - and #VoteDownTheDeal

However something else - the Letwin Amendment - is actually more important to the outcome now
The Letwin Amendment means the UK has to request an #Article50 Extension *anyway*, buying time for the Commons and Lords to scrutinise the Deal

But other things - notably the vote on the Queen's Speech - happen during this period, and that poses problems for the Government
Read 7 tweets
Right then

It's the pre #EUCO #BrexitDiagram you have been waiting for!

V29, based on knowing we have a framework for a Deal
I admit V28 put the chances of Johnson even getting a Deal as too low - only .2

However the total impact of him having done so is not that significant, because the chances this works in London are v slim still, due to the DUP (still only 10% chance Deal passes)
This also accounts for there being the extra session of Parliament on 19 Oct

And also Labour firming up its position on #PeoplesVote
Read 5 tweets
So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments
tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.
Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension
Read 6 tweets
So @timjoyce11 rightly pointed out that #BrexitDiagram V27.1 did not adequately cover what would happen if May's Deal were brought back on 19 Oct with a #PeoplesVote attached...

V27.2 tries to cover this
We know that @hilarybennmp would want to try this route on 19 Oct, it's hard to know if there's a majority for it (it's ages since @peterkyle tried similar)

Plus what would happen were it successful has not even been debated - would Johnson actually do this? Or sooner resign?
Chances of a GE slip a little, chances of a #PeoplesVote increase a little

High res image here:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
Thanks to feedback from @Astro_Wright (who rightly pointed out I was missing an arrow that Corbyn could continue to avoid a VONC post-Queen's Speech), there's a new #BrexitDiagram V27.1 - this doesn't change the outcomes though
Reminder how all this compares to last week:
3% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
8% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
10% 🆕 Stalemate
48% ⬆️ General Election 2019
14% ↔️ General Election 2020
14% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
3% ⬆️ Brexit with Deal
What's caused the changes?

Essentially it's because now all the decisions UK side will have to happen after the European Council, and working out the precise sequencing of each stage is complex
Read 4 tweets
🤯

Sometimes #Brexit just gets a whole lot more complex

And that makes the #BrexitDiagram a whole load worse...

New version 27 - now a massive 5930x8318 pixels in size, to make sense of it all!
So what changed here?
- the @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry case
- negotiations close to breaking down in Brussels
- the Govt suggesting the Commons will sit Saturday 19 Oct, and how this plays with the Queen's Speech and vote on that
All of this has the chances of No Deal, #PeoplesVote and Revoke slipping a bit, the chances of a General Election steady in comparison to last week. And a new entry - that all this ends up with more stalemate has a 10% chance
Read 5 tweets

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