Thread by @BigBiteNow

1/9
I will mainly park the #BMN interims for just a moment because for me, a loss was coming.

The story is about the future and what it will cost shareholders.

I am still working through the very detailed finance agreement but would highlight several stand out points.

2/9
My take.
$65m in new finance.

To pay
$6.15m Duferco
$22.2m Nedbank
= $28.35m

Dilution at this stage
Duferco $6.5m (£5m) @ c. 10p (worst case) = 50m shares.

Cash on hand.
$24m

Planned Investments through this finance
Vanchem phase 1 = $14m
Vametco phase 3 = $26m

3/9
From today's RNS ;
Firstly the PFA from Orion, who I regard as a very solid and trustworthy lender.

"to provide the necessary funding to finance the Vametco phase III expansion project to 4,200 mtV and debt repayment."

Annual Report page 42.

4/9
$35m Convertable loan

"Funds raised are to be used for capital investment purposes for the first phase of Vanchem's critical refurbishment programme, and the balance for debt repayment purposes."

5/9
So at this stage, it looks to me that for this total investment, BMN can chart a course to Vametco 4,200mtV and Vanchem at 1,100mtV.

Thus giving us a 5,300mtV producing business.

Phase 3 Vametco is previously stated as being on line by 2025 but I see a twist coming.

6/9
Vanchem phase 2 is stated as being a $21m build cost achieved across 2021/22 and taking production there up to 3,100mtV.

So why is this finance centred around Vametco?

I appreciate that Vanchem has phase 1 to complete first but phase 2 dates are in line with that.

7/9
CEO Mojapelo gives us a clue when he says in today's announcement that today's finance ;

"puts us on track with our expansion plans" and "we look forward to further elaborating on these plans and the impact on our business in the coming months."

8/9
So something is certainly afoot at Vametco, be it the PFS has still to be completed, which means the finance shouldn't all be required straight away.

The same goes for Vanchem where one would expect cash reserves to be employed, first and foremost.

9/9
So for now I have an open mind on further dilution.

The combination of business progress and timing of draw downs, will have a substantial affect on the dilutive nature of the CLN.

My est. right now is c. 200m new shares, incl. Duferco first tranche. Not a deal breaker.