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BBN Profile picture
BBN
@BigBiteNow
Bringing logical analysis/research to my investments. The greatest investment we'll ever make is time itself. So DYOR and always check everything yourself.
4 subscribers
Oct 7 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing. 2/
 The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
Apr 4 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image 2/
 A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
Jul 22, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa. 2/
 Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
Jul 21, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also. 2/
 Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
Jul 20, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/9
 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m 2/
 Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
Jul 20, 2022 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review. 2/
 Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
Jul 5, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7
 Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021. 2/
 What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.

One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
Jul 5, 2022 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
1/24
Lots of continuing confusion it seems around the #HMI accounts and the company's core profitability.

For me, this is in part driven by a desire to focus on the revenues when the focus should be on the cash flows

Here's my long thread opinion.
$ = AUD only. 2/
 Firstly, it is important to appreciate that HMI wrote down AUD $600,000 in trade debtors on 31/12/21.

Also, "Some debtors are given industry standard longer payment terms which may cross over more than one accounting period," which helps create a difference between...
Jul 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4
 Yes, a very good start with the key message that,

"Significantly, the three holes completed to date targeted the geochemical high, but the core of the magnetic high has yet to be tested."

The direction of the #SRB drill holes clearly demonstrates this. 2/
 “This is a very promising time for Serabi and between this discovery, the excellent progress with the development of Coringa, improved production from the Palito Complex, and advancing all our high priority regional targets, we look forward to updating all our stakeholders.”
May 21, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
 In this enclosed blog I attempted to demonstrate the significance of the V205 $8 per lb point.

Given what has just been reported in China, I believe we will shortly see $9 pr lb V205.

#BMN

2/
 Here now is the same historical V205 price chart marked up at $9 per lb.

Upon hitting $9 per lb the only time since 1980 that the V205 price has not gone on to spike to at least $11.50 per lb was in 2006/07 but it was coming off a downtrend. Image
May 21, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7
 The latest vanadium price report is now available.

V205 120,500 CNY/t now the norm. See my previous explanations for what this likely means for the price in dollars.

I make China V205 running at $8.70 per lb.

#BMN #vanadium

Image 2/
 That's now well above my $8 per lb rising trend break out point.

More importantly,

"People in the market has high enthusiasm for inquiries, and big factory is expected to adjust June V2O5 flake next week, and their wait-and-see sentiment increases."
May 21, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
 Bushveld Energy 2021 position if listed separately,

A. $8m profit on #IES investment.

B. 25.25% ownership in Enerox who's 2020 contract wins were c. 65% of what IES achieved and will hold $30m for expansion to production twice the size of IES.

#BMN

2/
 C. 55% ownership of a 200MWh electrolyte plant under construction with the IDC of S.A.

D. Mini-grid project under construction at Vametco in partnership with the IDC with potential to open up localised VRFB production and industrial opportunity.
May 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4
 As stated the other day #SRB hit AISC $1,080 at c. 40k oz production in 2019.

This year looking like min. 36,000 oz is on which will raise that AISC slightly.

However, we must not forget the exchange rate.

2/
 In 2019 the Brazil Real averaged R3.95 to a dollar.

YTD in 2021 it is running at R5.47 a dollar.

That's a 38% difference to 2019. The vast majority of SRB costs are in Brazil Real with revenues in dollars.
May 21, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/12
This energetic and informative interview with #BMN Mikhail Nikomarov gives great insight into what VRFBs can potentially offer the S.A. market

From 3m 23s,

VRFBs are "cheaper if you need multiple hours of storage on a daily basis"

#vanadium

moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio… 2/
 By "shifting energy from when it is sunny to when it's not, like in the evenings."

Also, to "support the transmission system and the distribution network."

There he touches upon S.A.s biggest hindrances "load shedding" but also "overloaded networks."
May 20, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1/11
Further to my earlier set of tweets regarding the IDC's involvement with #BMN.

The 2020 interims stated that BMN,

"obtained a debt financing term-sheet from a French Development Bank, to be underwritten by a South African institution."

2/
 The IDC is a national development finance institution.

So give that the IDC state involvement in the mini-grid and the actual debt element appears to have come from a French Development Bank, then perhaps their role is as the underwriter. Image
May 20, 2021 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
1/18
Enclosed below is a copy of the IDC 2020 accounts. The IDC is the S.A. Government's investment vehicle, investing c. $780m in 2020.

Their New Industries unit has taken a 45% stake in the #BMN electrolyte plant currently being built in South Africa.

idc.co.za/wp-content/upl… 2/
 Page 44 deals with the business activities of the New Industries unit.

What is interesting is on addition to the electrolyte plant they are clearly also the funder for the Vametco mini-grid which is currently awaiting license sign off from the regulator. Image
Apr 16, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/8
 Here in Germany, we have already reached the point that my local grocery shop is selling rapid antigen tests.

Their product of choice is Hotgen, produced by a company out of Beijing.

Claims SENS 95.3% and SPEC 99.13% with the anterior nasal method.

#AVCT #ABDX #ODX 2/
 There is now an unbelievable number of different products on the market in Germany, with the most popular being fairly local names, Roche and Siemens.

Both of these tests are being employed in school and kindergartens. Both employ nasal swab.

Schools testing twice weekly.
Apr 16, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/8
 Interesting deal announced between Brisbane based @VeccoTom and Shanghai Electric for the supply of an electrolyte plant in Australia.

Yet another sign of momentum that is gathering in the VRFB inudusty.

#BMN #Vanadium

veccogroup.com.au/vecco-group-to… 2/
 Shanghai Electric recently announced plans for a 100MW/400MWh VRFB project in Yancheng in east China's Jiangsu province.

One of several high profile projects and which alone should demand c. 1,600 mtV of vanadium,

argusmedia.com/en/news/219673…
Apr 15, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6
 Very encouraging results from #SRB this morning.

Production now above 8,000 oz and more importantly, grades have increased from 5.27g/t (Q4) to 6.27 g/t.

"this first quarter was expected to deliver the lowest level of gold production for 2021." 2/
 This represents a "16 per cent improvement on our internal budget represents an excellent result."

FY guidance held at between 33,000 and 36,000 oz.

Even if we take the "internal budget" to be the lowest end fig. 33,000 oz, a 16% improvement means that actual production...
Apr 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/2
 The latest Chinese vanadium market update and shows bullishness.

It's the middle of the month and so steel mill bidding is at best sporadic and market weakness should be expected.

However, key V205 prices simply aren't giving any ground and it's hard to...

#BMN Image 2/
 find supplies from large factories.

Rather interestingly ammonium metavanadate prices are also creeping higher, whilst everyone else is deadlocked but reluctant to accept lower prices.

Larger factory prices such as Pangang will be interesting to see later in the month.
Nov 11, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
1/13
What I liked most about the @BushveldMin_Ltd update today, was that it was focused on an isolated but important project for #BMN. Thus allowing it to breathe a tad more and not get lost in the lengthy and often detailed updates, that are the norm.

londonstockexchange.com/news-article/B… 2/13
I would like to see the company continue with this pattern moving forward.

As to the update, very solid but it will now be all about how long NERSA need to sign off on the license application. Being 1MW, its certainly falls within their powers to act quickly but what that..