Thread by @therealarod1984

9/29 Texas C-19 Hospital Census: False Floor

* Census - 3251 - up 44 beds Week over Week (WoW)
* Census Down 70.2% since 7/22 Peak
* % Beds used by C19 - 5.86%
* ICU C19 - 1044, down 22 WoW
* Hospital commentary, leading Indicators analysis next

#RationalGround

1/n

2/n

Hospital Commentary:

* ICU continues to decline as % of total C19
* 9/29 - 32.11%
* 9/22 - 33.21%
* 9/15 - 34.76%

* False floor
** Delayed care patients - nosocomial
** PCR Ct functional false positives
** Cares Act $ putting pressure to code as C19

3/n - Case & Pos% Commentary

* Test Positivity Rate is at lowest point since MAY 26.
* 2nd chart - New reported cases have declined substantially the last 5 days.
* 7D average of new cases is 2872, lowest since June 19

4/n - Corona Like Illness (CLI) Chart

Similar to the Influenza surveillance system, CLI is a leading indicator. The 7DAvg does show an uptick to a 492 index from a low of 452. Not much change my report 5 days ago.

ILI and CLI looking like mirrors of each other on Texas2036 BTW

5/n - Epidemic (EPI) Curves

TX now has an EPI curve on their dashboard. Harris County always had a good one. These show true arrival of cases, instead of batch report dates. Both show TX to be in good shape for now.

However, note the most recent dates will fill in some.

6/n - Final Commentary

* CLI something to watch, but not much movement the past 5 days.
* EPI looks good
* Pos% and cases continue to decrease
* Hospitals at a false floor. We will watch discharges next 3 days to see if needle moves down
* Continued vigilance!