therealarod1984 Profile picture
Proud contributor to https://t.co/W1L8eBcshH - Opinions expressed are solely my own & do not reflect the opinions of other entities. R/Ts are not endorsements.
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Jan 17
1/16 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* We may know after today if 1/8 or 1/11 is our positivity rate peak
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* We are easily on pace for the 1/26 hospitalization peak I'm predicting

1/n 1/16 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected< 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/6:
* Pos rate 32.00%
* 1/8 peak mentioned last week appears to be re-forming
* 1/11 could also be peak, not enough testing in to say for certain
* Testing about to go 200K+ per day

2/n
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Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
1/14 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly
1/n 1/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts

2/n
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Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
1/13 - Texas Hospitalization analysis by TSA

THREAD:

Couple of tweets here to break down the regions. Seeing growth rapidly decline, & with positivity rate already peaking per below, we likely don't see renewed growth. We are now watching for hospitalizations to nose over

1/n First off we look at some indicators as to where things are headed

1) CDC chart, while recent days incomplete, growth is slowing & possible 1/8 peak
2) Admits 14DMA (longer term metric) has mostly nosed over
3) Admits 7DMA at 30% & falling
4) Hospital census growth falling

2/n
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
1/13 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* 1/8 Positivity rate peak holds for 2nd straight day
* New Testing record
* Case 7DMA creeps up to new record
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Houston & SE Texas hospitalizations have already nosed over

1/n 1/13 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/3:
* Pos rate 31.79% but current 1/8 peak is 32.60%
* Positives @ 55K/day
* Testing @ 175K/day - new C19 record
* Pos rate peak could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
1/12 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* It is possible positivity rate has already peaked
* new 1-day record for reported cases
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Severe hospitalization still not at 2020 Winter pace yet, while cases are 5X 2020

1/n 1/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/2:
* Pos rate 31.52% but really flattening
* Positives @ 53K/day
* Testing @ 169K/day
* Its early but pos rate has formed a peak on 1/8. Could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Jan 8
1/8 Texas C19 Update: Mid-Rise?

THREAD:

* Indications are that we are mid-way+ through the rise of this wave
* Positivity Rate growth is decreasing
* Crazy high Cases have topped out
* Hospital Admits are really starting a taper
* ICU and Vents still not keeping pace

1/n 1/8 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/29,
* Pos rate 28.75% on its way to ~31%
* Positives at 42K/day on way to 50K. #Crazy
* Testing @ 148K/day on way to 160K
* Pos% rate will crest in the low 30s in coming days

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Jan 6
1/6 Texas C19 Update: Still going

THREAD:

* Maybe seeing a peak form for combined positivity rate
* Day 6 of huge case numbers, a record 7DMA by 2X
* General Hospitalizations increasing but growth rate has crested
* ICU & Vents behind Winter 2020 Wave pace

1/n 1/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/27,
* Pos rate 23.91% on its way to ~31%
* Testing @ 130K/day on way to 155K
* Record positive tests
* Looking at more recent days, pos rate flattens @ 31%, will watch for a crest

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Jan 3
1/3 Texas C19 Update: Everyone is getting it

THREAD:

* Shocking number of cases reported the past 3 days, shattering Covid case records
* Severe cases rising but nothing like cases
* Should be a steep but short wave
* Vaccine mandates LOL. Yeah OK.

1/n 1/3 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/24, in a steep wave:
* Pos rate @ 18.94%, more growth to come
* Testing ~ 125K day
* Conversion of positives indicates still early in wave on 12/24, but that may change soon...

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
12/30 Texas Regional C19 Hospitalization Analysis:

THREAD:

* Breakdown of the numbers into the different regions
* Far West & Panhandle basically are done with their wave
* Wave has moved East and South, and obviously into Texas Metro Triangle now, which will drive numbers

1/n 12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Far West and Panhandle

* El Paso appears completely over
* Midland some cyclical minor growth
* Amarillo & Lubbock are flat & whatever growth there is is cyclical
* For now, the wave has moved through this area and its over. Well watch though

2/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
12/30 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* A steep wave in regards to testing, cases and general hospitalizations, all of it in the Eastern half of the state
* Severe cases are lagging significantly behind
* Behaving like a summer wave, not at all like last winter

1/n 12/30 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/20, a steep wave forming:
* Pos rate @ 12.57%, more growth to come
* Testing nearing 110K day
* Conversion of positives to cases will help to indicate where we are in the wave

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
12/21 - TX Hospitalizations by Region

THREAD:

* Analysis of 22 Texas TSA Hospital Regions grouped into 8 regional charts
* The Western part of the state has peaked for now. Will it stay that way? If so, not much of a wave
* Only new TX growth is in Houston

1/n
. Panhandle and Far West Texas

* Start Date on all Charts is Jun 1
* Census for all four TSAs are in decline, as is change in 7DMA
* El Paso & Amarillo is in strong decline, which mirrors case rates in New Mexico
* Are these areas post peak or another wave coming We'll see

2/n
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Read 4 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
12/21 Texas C19 Update: On the Case

THREAD:

* Testing showing signs of growth
* Cases finally climbing pretty fast as expected
* Case growth will taper soon but continue steadily
* Hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" right now is a casedemic

1/n 12/21 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/11:
* Pos rate @ 7.57%
* Testing was still < 90K/day, but coming days will show growth, as will pos rate
* Conversion of positives to cases finally increasing, hence the cases

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2021
12/19 Texas C19 Update: Casedemic

THREAD:

* Cases finally coming in after lagging way behind positive tests
* SE Texas is showing some spread, while W Texas is post peak
* Statewide testing and hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" is still a misnomer

1/n 12/19 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/9:
* Pos rate @ 7.42%
* With Testing flat @ 90K/day, means Positives are flat
* But historically low conversion of positives to cases means lots of cases out there

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
12/16 Texas C19 Update: Still Waiting

THREAD:

* Cases finally starting to rise but growth may be short lived
* Houston may be percolating, while ELP & AMA have peaked
* Widespread immunity? Looks that way right now
* Winter 2020 wave continues to leave 2021 in the dust

1/n 12/16 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/6:
* Pos rate flat @ 7.20% & will stay flat for a few days
* With Testing flat @ 90K/day, means Positives are flat
* New Chart comparing Positives to Cases!
* Covidestim Rt 1.18

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 14, 2021
12/14 Texas C19 Update: Bag o' Nothing

THREAD:

* Feel like I'm waiting on a wave that isn't coming
* Paddling on my surfboard in a calm ocean, might be time to paddle to shore and go home
* Widespread immunity? Starting to look that way
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 LOL

1/n 12/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/4:
* Positivity rate really flattening, at 7.29%. Upcoming days are same
* Testing starting to flatten ~90K per day
* Cases will start flattening as well
* Covidestim Rt 1.18

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
12/12 Texas Regional Hospital Analysis

THREAD

As mentioned in the Covid update this morning, I'll present some hospital numbers broken down by TSA Region...

Summary: Most of the spread is confined to the northern and western parts of the state

1/n Census & Rates of growth for Panhandle and Far West TX.

AMA is ahead of LBB. ELP is ahead of MAF. 1 of 2 things happening:

1) Spread is moving South & East. Or
2) AMA & ELP both saw much smaller Summer 2021 waves than LBB & MAF. An immunity question opposed to geography

2/n
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Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
12/12 Texas C19 Update: Still Waiting

THREAD:

* Moderate spread in the North, still virtually none in the Southern part of the state
* Widespread immunity?
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 are barely comparable
* Same story, different day

1/n 12/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/2:
* Positivity rate flat at 7.21%
* Testing recovered to 85K per day, looks to be climbing
* Should mean more positives and cases in upcoming days
* Covidestim Rt 1.15

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 11, 2021
12/10 Texas C19 Update: Paper Tiger

THREAD:

* Its all in the northern part of the state, the south still flat
* Yawn
* Is this a sign of widespread enough immunity?
* 2020 is wiping the floor with 2021
* Late wave or small wave? TBD

1/n 12/10 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/30:
* Pos rate slowly climbing to 7.22%
* Tests & Positives recovering from Thanksgiving
* Upcoming incomplete days for pos% look super flat
* Covidestim Rt 1.05

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 6, 2021
12/6 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave 2021 still bored and "sleepy" compared to 2020
* At this point, Thanksgiving should be well in the rear view mirror so what's the reason?
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising

1/n
. 12/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/26:
* Pos rate is the only reason we know for certain there is a wave
* Pos rate 6.49%
* Thanksgiving tanking of both tests & positives
* Covidestim Rt crosses 1.0 to 1.13

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 5, 2021
12/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave is still pretty "sleepy" compared to 2020
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising
* What will next week bring? A surge or more sleepiness?

1/n
. 12/4 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/24:
* 2020 was already in a fairly steep rise at this point
* Pos rate 6.27%
* Testing starting Thanksgiving tank
* Positive tests flat
* Covidestim Rt up to 0.82

2/n
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
12/2 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Curious week. Not much of a wave yet
* Cases still affected by Thanksgiving it appears
* Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits only slowing rising
* More new charts today to directly compare Winter 2021 vs 2020

1/n
. 12/2 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/22:
* Pos rate slow rise to 6.01%
* Testing still flat, well see it tank over Thanksgiving
* Positive tests also flat
* Covidestim Rt still irrelevant right now at 0.62

2/n
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Read 6 tweets