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therealarod1984 Profile picture
therealarod1984
@therealarod1984
Proud contributor to https://t.co/W1L8eBcshH - Opinions expressed are solely my own & do not reflect the opinions of other entities. R/Ts are not endorsements.
6 subscribers
Oct 22 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary

1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds

1/n Image Battleground state summary - Page 2

2/n
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:

* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points

2/n Image
Nov 22, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
"Random Dude on Twitter" is my second nickname. "Random Dude on Twitter" has been right A LOT. Let's look at some receipts, shall we?

THREAD

1/n Let's see...."Random Dude on Twitter" predicted Texas Hospitalization peak to the day not just once....

2/n
Nov 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
11/21 - Domestic Passenger Traffic: Pre-Thanksgiving Edition

* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday

THREAD

1/n 11/21 Airlines Page 2

* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%

2/n Image
May 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
5/16 - Texas C19: Omicron BA.Whatever

THREAD:

* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low

1/n 5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

As of 5/6:

* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.

2/n
May 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
5/11 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there

THREAD

1/n 5/11 Airlines Page 2

The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.

Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.

2/n ImageImage
Apr 11, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
4/10 - Texas C19 Update: Still nothing

THREAD:

* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain

Let's go through it!

1/n 4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...

2/n
Apr 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
4/7 - Texas C19 Update: What Covid?

THREAD:

* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers

1/n 4/7 - Testing

As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day

2/n
Apr 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
4/7 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

T-111 days until the next expiration date for the Federal mask mandate. Chances are high as they've been to see it expire, but we aren't dealing with common sense here.

As far as traffic numbers, lets take a look, shall we?

THREAD

1/n 4/7 Airlines Page 2

The 7 day moving avg is following as closely to the 2019 historical numbers as it ever has. They're mirrors, expect 2022 is 9-10% less.

The 7DMA is at 2.07 Million. Historical numbers say we are about to see our normal spring/summer boom.

2/n
Apr 4, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
4/3 - Texas C19 Update: Spring mini-bump?

THREAD:

* Watching a slight bump in pos% and to a lesser extent in positive tests
* While Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* Some new charts today!
* What we talkin bout, Willis? Let's see!

1/n 4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/24:
* A bump up to 2.14% from 1.9% a few days ago
* Still below previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* However, because the number of people getting tested is declining...

2/n
Mar 28, 2022 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
3/27 Texas C19 Weekly Update

THREAD

* The weekly Covid check-in.
* Media still trying to drum up fear around new variants
* What do the numbers say right now? Lets take a look!

1/n
 . 3/27 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* We'll do 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/17:
* We are below the all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21 for 9 days now
* We stay below 2% until at least 3/22
* So what about those very incomplete days of 3/23 - 3/27?

2/n
Mar 12, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
3/12 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Final Analysis of severe outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave

* Hospitalizations nearing all time lows
* Severe Hospitalizations, Fatalities, CFR end up much lower than previous waves

1/n 3/12 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Cases 7DMA below 2K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA at 2.4k and still collapsing at -28% Week over Week
* The Omicron case peak was 280% greater than the previous C19 record

2/n
Feb 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/28 Texas C19 Weekly Update

THREAD

* Weekly check-in to make sure Covid is trending in the right direction & to raise the flag if its not
* Let's take a look!

1/n
 . 2/28 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/18:

* Positivity rate @ 7.24% down 5 points from LW
* Testing now at pre-Omicron levels ~80K/day
* More cases than positive tests for a while now
#backlog

2/n
Feb 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/28 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

THREAD

* A short Omicron induced lull in January & early February is over
* President's Day brought travel back to Holiday season levels
* @Hold2LLC @pilotshive, others telling me they think the airline Mask Mandate goes away soon???

1/n @Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 2

Back to near 2 million passengers in the 7 Day moving average (7DMA), which we've only seen at 3 other times during C19: Summer 2021, Thanksgiving 2021, and Christmas 2021.

2 years ago, 7DMA was running a little north of 2.2 Million

2/n Image
Feb 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
2/25 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave

* Hospitalizations approaching traditional C19 floors, interesting to see if they crash below that
* Jan 28 was fatality peak, CFR still below flu

1/n 2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/24, Cases 7DMA falling through 4K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA below 5K and still collapsing
* Rapidly approaching traditional Covid floor of 2K cases and 3K hospitalization census

2/n Image
Feb 21, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n 2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n
Feb 19, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/19 Texas C19 Update - Exit Stage Left

THREAD

* Probably one mid week report left, and then I'll go to once a week to keep my eyes on things
* Everything still collapsing
* Let's take a look!

1/n
 . 2/19 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/9:

* Positivity rate down to 13.67%, and from here the decline starts to slow
* An interesting bump in testing occurred 2/10-2/14, but its falling again

2/n
Feb 16, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n 2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n
Feb 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/15 Texas C19 Update - Omicron go Night Night...

THREAD

* Cases running north of 100% of positive tests, meaning we are seeing a lot of catch up and backlog being reported
* Despite this, Case 7DMA now below 9K
* Hospitalizations, including ICU/Vents continue freefall

1/n
 . 2/15 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/5:

* Pos rate 7DMA down to 18.78% & declining a point a day
* More cases being reported than there are positive tests, starting 2/3 & next several days

2/n
Feb 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n 2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n
Feb 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/9 Texas C19 Update - For what it's worth

* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...

THREAD

1/n
 . 2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/30:

* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down

2/n
 .
Feb 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/7 Texas C19 Update - Plummet

* Steep Declines everywhere
* We're about halfway down the hill
* Will be interesting to far down this does or doesn't bottom out

THREAD

1/n 2/7 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/28:

* Huge plunge underway across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* Upcoming incomplete days show a decline of ~1% a day in positivity rate

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage