Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Policy & Strategy Analytics academic at Loughborough University; Fellow, St Catherine's College, Oxford. Member, @IndependentSage.

Oct 1, 2020, 7 tweets

Comment on the proposed Merseyside / Liverpool 'lockdown'. Let's look at Liverpool. #merseyside #liverpool

Some say that cases are plateauing and therefore there isn't a problem. From the data, this could be the case.

Liverpool is at around 150 cases per 100,000 in the last PHE report

However, more recent data shows cases of around 300 cases per 100,000. This is very high.

*But* we don't know whether these are capacity constrained. There appears to be testing capacity in Liverpool at the moment, which is good.

Not enough testing was being carried out in Liverpool in recent weeks due to the commercial NHS Test and Trace service being overwhelmed. We can see this in the positivity figures - around 13%. WHO suggest 5% as a maximum. This means *not enough tests were being carried out*

Happy to speak to journalists. DMs open.

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