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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Dr Duncan Robertson
@Dr_D_Robertson
Policy & Strategy Analytics academic at Loughborough University; Fellow, St Catherine's College, Oxford. Member, @IndependentSage.
6 subscribers
Jul 18 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
The UK Covid Public Inquiry has published its first Report, on Resilience and Preparedness. It is the most urgent report, as we are still ill-prepared for the next pandemic.

🧵 This is the first of many reports, each reviewing a specific area, including healthcare systems; test, trace, and isolate; and the economic response to the pandemic.

The Module 1 Report sets out nine significant flaws from the Covid-19 pandemic: Image
Jun 9, 2023 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing including a discussion on sick pay, the topic of today's discussion. 🧵 Image Cases and tests. Relatively low.
Caveat that the ONS Covid infection survey has been paused ImageImageImageImage
Apr 21, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Covid data presentation for the @IndependentSage briefing on 21 April 2023 🧵 Image Testing has changed from 1 April 2023, so it is difficult to compare before and after this date.
gov.uk/government/new…
Apr 20, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Alright. Another maths thread. And why it's non-trivial to ask exam questions.
🧵 OK. So the 'exam question' is:

"Inflation is currently 10%. If inflation halves, how much will a £1 pint of milk cost".

Sounds easy. It's not. It's ambiguous. It's not a good question. Unless it's designed to be a bad question. In which case it's a good question.
Mar 24, 2023 • 17 tweets • 9 min read
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing. 🧵 First, the @ONS Covid Infection Survey is being paused, and @CovidGenomicsUK is being retired. This will have implications for data reliability and availability going forward.
Mar 20, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
OK, I'm going to write a response to this maths problem, published in @DailyMailUK, that has caused a lot of comment, some thinking the answer is 1 and some thinking the answer is 9.

A thread. 🧵

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1… So, what answer is correct? Is it 1 or is it 9?

Many of us would go straight to the answer 1. That's because we know (or our children know, and have taught us), that there is a 'rule' for how you deal with the order of doing the calculation - do you do + first or ÷, for example?
Mar 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Like it or not, this equation is ambiguous.

The thing about maths (and language for that matter) is you aim to express things elegantly, while being unabiguous.

Unless you're trying not to.
Jan 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Comparing 2016 Candidate Brief for the BBC Chair (previous Chair) & 2020 (appointment of Richard Sharp).

2 paragraphs removed:

"...neither seeking nor taking instructions from Government Ministers...."
"...independence of the new BBC Chair will be of paramount importance..." 2016 Candidate Brief:
…blicappointments.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…
Jan 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The ONS survey may be closed down. This would be an error. inews.co.uk/news/politics/… "Dr Duncan Robertson, an expert in policy and strategy analytics at Loughborough University and a member of Independent Sage, said: “The ONS Covid infection survey has been one of the few success stories of the UK’s response to Covid...
Jan 6, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Look at the jump in the latest Covid infection survey data.

(13 December 2021 to 28 December 2022)

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Other UK nations
Dec 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
BBC News - UK to need negative Covid test for China arrivals
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-641306…
Nov 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A look at all the references to Wales in the UKHSA Immensa report.

I wouldn't be too happy if I was reporting this to UKHSA from Public Health Wales.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
🧵 Image
Nov 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Well, this is a massive failure of government policy isn't it. Here's Wikipedia:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccines_…
Nov 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing. 🧵 Image INFECTIONS ImageImage
Nov 15, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
This chart was recently published by the DHSC. It is misleading, and I have reported my concern to the Office for Statistics Regulation.

A thread, setting out the points in my letter. 🧵 Image The chart was published on 10 November here:


The text of my letter to @StatsRegulation follows:
Nov 11, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Today's data slides from today's @IndependentSage briefing.

The pressure on the NHS is severe, both in A&E wait times and ambulance response times.

And all this is during unseasonably warm weather.

First the good news...

🧵 INFECTIONS are falling, which is good news.
Nov 5, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Social media sites going out of fashion is nothing new.

Twitter is just the latest in a long line of social media sites that were once dominant.

Using data from Statista, here's Global Stats' jounrney back into time, starting in February 2004, with, of all things, Friendster.🧵 October 2004, and Orkut is dominant. Google is behind Orkut, so it must do well, right? But what's that down there, upstarts called Myspace and Facebook...
Oct 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Market reaction to Hunt's speech. Watch here
marketwatch.com/investing/bond…

30 year UK bond yield currently ~4.4%. If it goes down, Hunt's speech is well received. If it goes up, it isn't. If it goes up to 5%, that's very bad. 4.35% (he hasn't started yet, I think)
Oct 7, 2022 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
Covid update from today's @IndependentSage briefing

PREVALENCE up in England. Up in over 70s (of concern). From ONS, which looks back to 24 September. ImageImageImageImage HOSPITALS

Admission rates increasing particularly in older people

Occupied beds increasing (of concern) ImageImageImageImage
Sep 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here are some 1970s Public Information Films from the last time we had an energy crisis. Wonder what the 2020s versions will look like.
🧵
Aug 12, 2022 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
Here are the slides from today's @IndependentSage briefing.

Including data on inequalities in excess deaths over the period of the pandemic.

🧵 There is no Covid infection survey data released this week as @ONS change their data collection method. The data will be released next week.