OK, so we now know the European Commission has sent a Letter of Notice to the UK, giving UK 1 month to respond...
...which is handily *after* the House of Lords has voted on the Internal Market Bill
Summed up in the new #BrexitDiagram V5.0.0
Note also: negotiations are *not* going to stop as a result of today's announcement, but do up the pressure on the House of Lords. Those changes are reflected in the diagram.
Also an acknowledgement of an error on my part in previous diagrams: I had *wrongly* assumed that as the tone from Brussels has been much more conciliatory for the past few weeks, the EU would *not* take legal action - and hence did not put a number on it...
Headline figures, compared with V4.1.0 from 30.9.2020:
No Deal - 56% (⬆️ 3%)
Minimal Deal - 33% (⬇️ 5%)
Party problems for Johnson - 11% (⬆️ 2%)
Background for Series 5 is on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever feedback most welcome!
/ends
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