Thread by @JakeSherman

Before a leave for the Capitol this morning, wanted to point out a few things in Playbook.

Today is a big day in @SpeakerPelosi and @stevenmnuchin1 seemingly endless quest to inject more than $1 trillion of fresh money into the economy.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 PELOSI and MNUCHIN met for an hour and a half Wednesday afternoon to try to reach an agreement, but found many areas that needed work.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 Here’s what our sources told us remained open: state and local funding (long an issue … Ds want roughly $500 billion, and Republicans are near $250 billion), K-12 ($225 billion for Dems, and $150 billion for Republicans) and a host of tax provisions, some related to health care.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 REPUBLICANS TELL US THE DEAL NEEDS TO BE LESS THAN $2 trillion for it to pass their muster, and Dems want a deal at $2 trillion plus -- so that’s the first issue. Those aren’t firm demands, just the general feeling among the dozens of people we spoke to Wednesday.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 And even if it’s at $1.6 trillion -- MNUCHIN’S offer -- it faces an incredibly treacherous path in the GOP Senate, where insiders told us it may never make it to the floor.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 POLICY IS MADE BY PEOPLE -- a very small set of them. So here’s how we see the incentives at play, at the moment.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 -- PELOSI made a calculation a few months ago: The TRUMP ADMINISTRATION was going to come back to the table to negotiate with her on a Covid relief package if she just waited long enough.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 Some Democrats thought she should buckle and take offers for less than $2 trillion -- she didn’t, and there was some grumbling that she had overplayed her hand. Talks broke down.

@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 Then PELOSI moved from $3.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion. And here we are, with talks restarted and the White House back at the table, showing its eagerness to cut a deal.

HERE’S A REALITY THAT’S QUITE CLEAR for PELOSI and House Democrats: JOE BIDEN is the favorite to win the White House, and a better deal isn’t too far around the corner if this falls apart.

When PELOSI delayed the vote on her Dem Covid relief bill Wednesday, her leadership team saw it as the speaker giving this one last chance while MNUCHIN was serious, and while White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS was out of the room.

It seems as if Democrats will give the talks a few hours this morning, then if they fail, they’ll move to their bill and move on. It would be very hard at this point for Republicans to say with a straight face that PELOSI doesn’t want a deal, given her eagerness at this moment.

BUT MAN, if she gets a deal here, this Congress will be bookended by PELOSI owning the White House: besting President DONALD TRUMP in the shutdown in early 2019, and now this.

>>@stevenmnuchin1 -- MNUCHIN WANTS A DEAL. Everyone who interacts with him understands that. He participated extensively in an NYT Mag story about his prowess as a dealmaker -- was noticed in the Cap, & compounded the distaste and dislike for him among Rs

@stevenmnuchin1 -- @senatemajldr IS NOT going to put a bill on the floor that doesn’t command the support of a majority of Senate Rs -- or damn close to it -- and a bill north of $1 trillion won’t accomplish that.

@stevenmnuchin1 @senatemajldr Don’t assume that if TRUMP says jump here, MCCONNELL asks him how high. So if PELOSI and MNUCHIN come up with a deal -- if they come up with anything -- it’s not necessarily cool with MCCONNELL.

@stevenmnuchin1 @senatemajldr LISTEN TO WHAT MCCONNELL is saying. He made clear Wednesday what he thought of the negotiations: They are “very, very far apart.” Do you need him to say more?

@stevenmnuchin1 @senatemajldr IF A DEAL COMES TOGETHER, it will take another week or more to see any action. If PELOSI sees that a deal is in the offing, she’ll go for it and make it happen. If not, talks will peter out until after the election.