Happy Wednesday.

☀️AM: The options to jumpstart the Trump agenda

After speaking all day to top House Republicans, here's are the options for reconciliation.

stay the course -- and pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Johnson is an optimist. You gotta give him that. The Louisiana Republican has maintained that the mess that we’re seeing right now is all part of what he calls the “deliberative process.” Fair enough. There’s certainly a lot of deliberating going on.

But there’s a path — a narrow path — for House Republicans to get a budget resolution allowing “one big beautiful bill” to move forward.

Following a very long meeting in the speaker’s office Tuesday night that included GOP leadership, committee chairs and some of the hardliners, there were signs of progress, although no agreement yet.

“I think when you look at where we are, we’re close to a trillion [dollars in cuts] and still working,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters afterward.

Scalise added that House GOP leaders “are focused on” trying to mark up a budget resolution next week.

They’ve also directed all the committees involved in this process to come up with more spending cuts. “We’re working on details for each committee,” Scalise said. “But we have gone back to each committee to increase those numbers. We’re not done on it.”

Plus, Republicans will think expansively about how to count savings — DOGE, projected 3% economic growth and a juiced economy from slashing regulations.

Then there’s Trump.

Can Trump, who has had limited legislative success during his first term, get Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) to back Johnson’s plan? Trump hasn’t yet leaned on lawmakers to get the reconciliation process going. By next week, he may have to. Switch to two bills. 

Hold onto your hat, Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.). There are House Republicans talking about the Budget Committee switching course and marking up the dual-track reconciliation process that Smith, the Ways and Means Committee chair, has railed against for months.

Trump says he doesn’t care if there’s one bill or two bills as long as his agenda gets approved. There are plenty of senior aides in the White House who want two bills. And the House Freedom Caucus wants two also.

The first reconciliation package would have defense spending, energy policy and border security provisions. The second reconciliation package — the tax-cut portion — would be punted until later. When exactly is unclear.

Smith doesn’t like the two-bill approach. In his view, that puts tax cuts at risk. Yet if the Budget Committee remains stuck, House Republicans may not have a choice.

ON THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN CALL —

@SpeakerJohnson says that with Hal rogers and Scalise out, the majority is slimmer than ever.

There’s simply not enough time so a CR is required, Johnson says. “Best remaining option on the table … keeps laddered approach,” Johnson said.

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Here's NYT story nytimes.com/2023/12/14/bus… But I want to take a second to talk about what our goals are. And what Punchbowl News wants to do going forward.

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BACON votes MCHENRY

1 against JORDAN BUCHANAN goes for BYRON DONALDS

2 against Jordan

DON BACON of Nebraska votes MCCARTHY

1 against Jordan VERN BUCHANAN votes for Byron Donalds

That's a new NO VOTE for Jordan

2 against JORDAN

MCCARTHY IN CLOSED GOP MEETING

We got a lot of big challenges

I dont want this to be an angry meeting. I firmly trust in God

You need 218 votes to be speaker -- and for the rules and amendments.

U held my mouth until you said something that wasnt true. And i did it for the good of the conference And i did it for the good of the conference. The Dems came to me to make a deal. I wasnt goign to make a deal.

When eight people work with the Democrats, it's not for the best of the conference.

I got to be the 55th speaker -- my goal has been to save the country. I love a lot of you -- i saw your kids grow up.

NEWS in @PunchbowlNews AM: Republicans feel VERY good about a deal to lift the debt limit

Rs expect the compromise will come together sometime in the next few days. intense pressure to wrap negotiations up as soon as possible in order to get a bill through in timely fashion. We anticipate that the debt limit will be extended through 2024 as part of any agreement. And the GOP leadership feels as if they will be able to win the support of the majority of the House Republican Conference for this eventual package.

Good morning. 9 days until the country may default on its debt. Some highlights from @PunchbowlNews AM

THE SIX DYNAMICS DRIVING DEBT LIMIT NEGOTIATIONS

1) A shrinking circle. 2) TIMING -- McCarthy said last night that the only thing that will force a deal is the June 1 deadline -- indicating this could go into next week.

I am a nerd, so here are all (i think!) the debt-limit increases since 1993

April 1993 — clean
August 1993 — part of an omnibus spending bill
Feb 1996 — declaration congress would raise DL before march 1996. And ensured social security would be paid. March 1996 — DL with strings (prioritizing)
March 1996 — DL within “contract with America advancement act” — host of Republican priorities.
August 1997 — DL in the “balanced budget act of 1997”
June 2002 — clean
May 2003 — clean
Nov 2004 — clean
March 2006 — clean

Good morning. In @PunchbowlNews AM this morning, we explore just why these debt-limit talks — which should be quite easy — are not. Timing. House Republican leadership estimates congress needs 10 days to move this deal if and when it comes together. There are 10 weekdays until June 1

>@PressSec, asked about spending caps in debt limit talks, says Biden will be focused on pushing Rs to do their "congressional duty" -- raising the debt cap >@PressSec re the debt limit: "the exit strategy is very clear. do your job"

Good morning from the Capitol. the Big Four will head to the White House in about 6 hours for a meeting with Biden. Here is some of our reporting from @PunchbowlNews AM and since this morning

Ds seemed to assume that KM couldnt pass a debt limit and MM would swoop in for a deal Now that KM has passed a DL, he has unified House/Sen Rs. This has scrambled some the calculus for some Ds. Rs say a clean DL not a possibility and a deal is necessary. The prospect of a bipartisan deal was discussed lightly Fri during Hill/WH mtg

DEBT CEILING NEWS
1: GOP whip team worked throughout the weekend to shore up the vote count on their debt limit bill.

HFC pushing for work requirements to kick in in 24 instead of 25. They also want to up the hours for work requirements.

GOP leadership not interested in either. 2: Dems seem to be trying to figure out what McCarthy is up to. But it's quite simple: he wants a negotiation with Biden. His ultimate goal is spending reductions, work requirements and permitting reform.

House Republicans have begun their conference call about the Silicon Valley Bank situation.

This thread by @bresreports me @BrendanPedersen

@PatrickMcHenry said this situation w SVB was "current social media meets the bank rush scene in its a wonderful life." McHenry said bank failed, as did California supervisors. And bank grew too fast

@SpeakerMcCarthy said he wanted to hold a call with House Republicans. He blamed Biden's "failed fiscal policies" - interest rates going up. he also reminded that Biden said inflation was transitory

Happy Wednesday.

@SpeakerMcCarthy will meet with @JoeBiden today in the Oval Office.

We caught up at length with McCarthy in his Capitol office about what he's thinking as he enters the meeting.

Details in @PunchbowlNews
AM and in this thread

1/x @SpeakerMcCarthy @JoeBiden @PunchbowlNews Here's what McCarthy told us:

“If you think you can beat me up, I’m going to be reasonable. So the sooner we sit down, the sooner this doesn’t become a problem.

“But we’re eventually going to have to dance together. So when do you want to play the music, now or later?”

NEW -- FULL "A COMMITTEE" LIST -- follow this thread...

APPROPS
Cloud
Guest
Zinke
Bice
Carl
Clyde
Ellzey
Franklin
LaTurner
Ciscomani ENERGY AND COMMERCE
Weber
Allen
Balderson
Fulcher
Cammack
Harshbarger
Miller-Meeks
Obernolte
Pfluger

Happy Friday from the Capitol.

Read @PunchbowlNews AM this morning -- bit.ly/3WSgJGS

Im going to use this thread to break down what we wrote, and add some new info.

thread here .... @PunchbowlNews House Rs going to have a 10:30 conference call to explain the McCarthy deal w opponents

Some think this is a bad idea. some want an in-person meeting. whatever -- people are angry bc they are frustrated generally and they are using this to bellyache.

Welcome to Day Three of Kevin McCarthy's quest for speaker.

There are still 20 no votes against him. He may have to sit through a 7th speaker vote today that he's sure to lose.

But if you squint, you can see some good signs for him. Here's what they are: 1) KM won an adjournment vote. There were four GOP defections. @RepCardenas and @RepEspaillat didnt vote. But, as McCarthy sometimes says, better to be lucky than good.

This vote allowed talks to continue last night

BIG BIG BIG HUDDLE in the middle of the House floor between moderates and the right.

DUSTY JOHNSON and SCOTT PERRY talking This conversation is quite animated.

QUORUM CALL showed 351 present -- a quorum

Now we roll into ANOTHER speaker vote.

JORDAN huddling with CHIP ROY and SCOTT PERRY

Follow along here for more in this thread.... MIKE GALLAGHER has today's honor of nominating MCCARTHY

Good morning. Wow -- thank you to everyone who has signed up for @PunchbowlNews.

This morning's edition: HOUSE IN CRISIS

punchbowl.news/archive/1423-p…

I'm going to lay out some important dynamics in this thread. We're onto day TWO of voting for speaker in the House of Representatives. Right now, the chamber has no rules, no committees -- nada.

90% of Rs are for @GOPLeader right now. 10% are for Jordan. This is giving McCarthy fuel to soldier on. The right loves this fight.