Thread by @Humble_Analysis

There are a group of 13 states where all-cause mortality trends almost perfectly mirror those seem in euromomo.eu for Western Europe. In these states, the Covid pandemic ended almost twenty weeks ago:

Another group of states saw a wave of excess mortality in the Summer, but at a much less significant scale. For these states, it appears that the pandemic is currently winding down and deaths are returning to normal:

A third category(including CA) has seen either two moderate waves or a sustained mild uptick in mortality. These states also appear to be returning to normal, but they may continue trending with somehow higher than normal deaths:

Finally, the last group of states (largely rural but including WA, OR, NC, and UT) has never experienced any significant excess mortality related to Covid. There was a very moderate uptick in the Summer which appears to have waned.

As a whole, these four groups show a remarkable divergence in experience. Covid almost exclusively impacted a handful of states in the NE during the Spring with a moderate wave in the South this summer. Have the remainder been spared or will their wave arrive this Winter?

This same pattern holds for Europe, by the way: deaths are largely confined to UK, Spain, France, Italy, and Belgium. Nations such as Poland and Germany, Finland and Estonia, Croatia and Greece, have seen almost no impact from this pandemic.