Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Health & economic warnings. Health policy, epidemiology & finance info. Fmr @Harvard @JohnsHopkins. ✏️https://t.co/I6xZVmz79l

Oct 2, 2020, 5 tweets

BREAKING—we now know Hope Hicks’s testing timeline:

📌Tuesday before debate: NEGATIVE

📌Wednesday morning: NEGATIVE

📌Wednesday mid day illness onset

📌Wednesday mid day: POSITIVE

📌Thursday evening Trump and FLOTUS: POSITIVE

Incubation period thread 🧵 below. #COVID19

2) People ask about infectious period and risk to Biden. Here is a thread below.

3) It does take a few days to get symptoms and test positive—but you can be infectious when the PCR test still suboptimal before symptom onset. Herein lies the problem with testing reliance alone. Trump’s reliance on testing is completely inadequate for finding the virus.

4) And what is next for Trump? Well it depends on underlying risk factors. This is a general flowchart of illness trajectory. But it’s very approximate. It’ll be worse for someone 74 years old, male, and overweight/ obese. (Figure HT @kutrinet)

5) And again, as for Biden. There are many scenarios too. Here is the worse case— but not the most likely per se. thread 🧵 below.

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