Modelling with the last Panelbase poll, where votes were transferred *only* from the SNP to a new list Party X (AFI/ISP/Wings/whatever), we see that Party X needs to get near 5% to start winning seats (from SNP) & near 6% to add 3 seats to the 'indy bloc'.
In the real world, a certain percentage of votes received by the Greens are already 'tactical votes' by those who voted SNP in constituencies.
What if some of these people voted for Party X instead of the Greens?
We see that this more realistic scenario looks even less rosy.
Here's the baseline propjection from that poll as a reminder:
Here's the situation if 10% of the SNP list vote defects to Party X - as it nears 5%, it just takes two potential SNP seats.
So much for 'binning unionist seat warmers'....
Now, say Green vote was reduced by 2% & we had 10% of SNP vote for Party X - in other words, 2% go for Party X instead of Greens, what would happen?
Result: Party X takes 4 Green seats plus hands two potential Green seats over to Tories and Labour instead.
Indy bloc 2 down.
Adding an extra 0.5% from the Greens just sees Party X take seats that would potentially have been won by the SNP from the Greens. Doesn't improve the indy bloc standing.
We have to 'transfer' 13.5% of SNP vote (including 2.5% from Greens), just to get back to where we started in terms of indy bloc. Except now all 8 seats for Party X have just been taken from the SNP and Greens!
This idea of 'binning unionist seat warmers' really working out well
You’ll notice that just to get back to square one, Party X is now on almost 7% of the vote, putting it above both the Greens and the Lib Dem’s, making it the 4th largest party behind SNP, Tories and Labour. Already well into #FantasyPolitics territory.
Modelling reveals the claim that voting for some indy list party is a way to magically defy arithmetic & ‘bin unionist seat warmers’ without endangering SNP is patent nonsense.
Anyone telling you that hasn’t done any analysis whatsoever & doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
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