Thread by @HEDanielClark

It's a Friday afternoon, so I bring you the weekly roundup of coronavirus data in Devon and Cornwall, and the total number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in the last seven days across Devon has risen – but with falls in Plymouth and Cornwall.

Government statistics show that 381 new cases have been confirmed across the region in the past seven days in both pillar 1 data from tests carried out by the NHS and pillar 2 data from commercial partners, compared to 365 new cases confirmed last week.

The number of new cases confirmed in Cornwall has fallen, going from 179 to 132 in the latest seven days, while Plymouth has seen cases more than half, dropping from 74 to 36.

But in Torbay, cases have more than doubled, from 18 to 39 – partially linked to an outbreak at a care home. And in the Devon County Council area, they have nearly doubled, from 96 to 178, although 60 per cent of those cases are in Exeter, primarily linked to the University.

Of the 381 new cases, 132 were in Cornwall, with 11 in East Devon, 107 in Exeter, 8 in Mid Devon, 13 in North Devon, 36 in Plymouth, 9 in the South Hams, 20 in Teignbridge, 39 in Torbay, 5 in Torridge, and 4 in West Devon.

Of the 381 new cases confirmed, 280 of the cases have a specimen date of between September 25 and October 1, with the majority of the other 101 cases dated occurring between September 21 and 24, although some dated back to the start of the month.

Of the cases with a specimen date of between Sep 25 and Oct 1, 91 of Cornwall cases occurred with 10 in East Devon, 72 in Exeter, 5 in Mid Devon, 12 in North Devon, 17 in the South Hams, 14 in Teignbridge, 31 in Plymouth, 32 in Torbay, 2 in Torridge, and 4 in West Devon.

By specimen date, the most recent case in Teignbridge is October 1, for Cornwall, Exeter, North Devon, Mid Devon, Plymouth, the South Hams, Torbay and West Devon is September 30, is September 29 for East Devon, and September 28 for Torridge.

More than half of Devon's cases are linked to students at the Uni. At least 60 households within the City are self-isolating and following public health advice, and there is no evidence at this stage of the virus spreading into the wider community, say Public Health teams

But as demand for tests is rising at the Uni, they have invited the national Test and Trace scheme to set up a temporary Testing Centre on the Streatham campus dedicated to Exeter students and staff, which will enable them to focus their Halo resources on some targeted testing

Of the cases with a specimen date of between September 22 to 28, there are currently 33 clusters where three of more cases have been confirmed in a Middle Super Output Area – seven in Devon, five in Torbay, five in Plymouth, and 16 in Cornwall.

There is a cluster of 3 cases in Ivybridge in the South Hams and 4 in Roundswell and Landkey in North Devon, with 5 clusters in Exeter – St Leonard’s with 4 Central Exeter with 5, St James Park and Hoopern with 9, Middlemoor and Sowton with 7, and 52 in Pennsylvania & University

In Torbay, Shiphay & the Willows, Babbacombe & Plainmoor, Upton & Hele, Chelston, Cockington & Livermead and Clifton & Maidenway have clusters of 3. In Plymouth, Mutley and Plymstock Elburton have a cluster of 3, Honicknowle & Manadon 4, Plymstock Hooe & Oreston 5, and Keyham 7

In Cornwall, there is a cluster of three in Newquay East and Penzance North, Penzance Quay, Bodmin North, Illogan & Portreath and St Columb Minor & Porth of four, Redruth North and St Agnes & Mount Hawke of five, Redruth South six, Camborne South of seven....

Lanreath, Pelynt & Polraun of nine, Camborne West and Roche & Goss Moor of 11, Camborne East of 14, Kingsand, Antony & Maryfield of 16, and Pool & Illogan Highway of 26.

But while there has been a rise in cases across the region from previous figures, the number of people in hospital with coronavirus has continued to remain relatively low compared to the rest of the country, and has even fallen in the South West.

In the South West, there are currently 33 people in hospital and two on ventilation, compared to 34 and three respectively last Friday. There has not been a hospital death since September 20, and were only three deaths in the South West in hospital in September.

The R Rate for the South West is now being estimated as between 1.1 and 1.4, the same figures as last week, with the ONS survey estimating that 0.08 per cent of the population in the South West would test positive at any one time, up from 0.07 per cent as of last week.

NHS 111 data for both Devon and Cornwall has fallen significantly in the past seven days, with the figures down 50 per cent on last Friday.

In total, Torridge has had 76 positive cases, West Devon 87, with 151 in the South Hams, 168 in North Devon, 249 in Mid Devon, 272 in Teignbridge, 305 in East Devon, 377 in Torbay, 460 in Exeter, 948 in Plymouth and 1397 in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.

As always, figures are based on the official data that is provided, and while there probably are more cases, unless they are tested, isn't going to appear in the figures. While across Devon cases have risen, they are still at very low levels and way below the national average

And in Plymouth and Cornwall, the rise in cases over recent weeks has at least for this week been reversed (for Cornwall - partly because the 170 cases at the factory primarily were accounted for in last week's data)

But while the cases across the region still appear to be trending slightly upwards, it is not yet translating into people going into hospital or dying. The fact less people are in hospital in the South West today than last Friday is arguably the key thing to focus on

While cases, hospitalisations and deaths are rapidly increases in other parts of the country, the same trend is not being seen in the South West, where all the figures have pretty much levelled off, and while not decreasing, the situation is not getting worse either

Coronavirus cases rise overall in Devon and fall in Cornwall

devonlive.com/news/devon-new…

The dashboard hasn't updated yet, so all we have today is the MSOA figures, and there have been a few changes now it covers Sep 23-29, with 10 new clusters, although four drop off the list. New clusters of Penzance Quay (3), Falmouth North (3), Perranporth & Goonhavern (3)....

City Centre, Barbican & Sutton Harbour (3), Mannamead & Hartley (3), Clyst, Exton & Lympstone (3), Starcross & Exminster (4), South Molton (3), Pinhoe & Whipton North (4), and St Marychurch & Maidencombe (12).

Ivybridge, Plymstock Hooe & Oreston, Newquay East, and Shiphay & the Willows drop off with Sep 22 removed. From the existing clusters, Pennsylvania & University drops from 52 to 40 and Pool & Illogan Highway from 26 to 15 in the main changes

Saturday's figures have now been added with 127 new cases in Devon and Cornwall - but there is a big caveat - due to technical issues with the dashboard, cases that should have been added in previous days weren't, which means today (and maybe next couple of days) are much higher

than they should be, which you'll see from the specimen dates (of course, means previous days were actually higher than they were). 40 cases in Cornwall (7 from Oct 1, 1 from Sep 30, 3 from Sep 29, 5 from Sep 25, 16 from Sep 24, 6 from Sep 23, 1 from Sep 22).....

12 in East Devon (5 from Oct 1, 2 from Sep 28, 1 from Sep 29, 27, 26, 25, 16), 38 in Exeter (4 from Oct 1, 24 from Sep 30, 10 from Sep 29), 5 in Mid Devon (1 from Sep 30, 29, 27, 26, 25), 1 in North Devon (Sep 30), 2 in South Hams (Sep 30 and a very historic case I can't find)..

13 in Plymouth (5 from Oct 1, 1 from Sep 29, 5 from Sep 26, 1 from Sep 25), 6 in Teignbridge (1 from Oct 1 and Sep 24, 2 from Sep 27 and 30), 6 in Torbay (1 from Sep 27 and 30, 4 from Sep 29), 4 in West Devon (1 from Oct 1 and Sep 29, 2 from Sep 30). No new cases in Torridge

Been some historic corrections as well to the South West hospital data, and rises to 48 people now in hospital. There was also a death announced today in Derriford Hospital, which was the first death in Devon since June 24

An example of the backdated issues we've seen today - South West reported 389 new cases today - has been around 130-180 daily for the last week.

Once again, the dashboard has yet to update with today's figures, so we just the MSOA data so far. Now covers Sep 24-30, and we have 8 new clusters, but 4 drop off the map. New clusters of Bradninch, Silverton & Thorverton (3), Bere Alston, Buckland Monachorum & Yelverton (3)..

Ashburton & Buckfastleigh (3), Dawlish North (3), Shiphay & the Willows (3), The Lizard (4), Saltash Town & Pillmere (4) and Newquay East (3). With Sep 23 figures removed, Mannamead & Hartley, Honicknowle & Manadon, Upton & Hele and Roundswell & Landkey drop off the map

Big changes in the existing Exeter clusters now the Sep 30 data is added, with Pennsylvania & University rising to 81 (from 40), Central Exeter to 16 (6), and St James's Park & Hoopern to 15 (10). Other rises see Lanreath, Pelynt & Polraun to 15 (9) and Camborne East to 19 (11)

Sunday's figures have now arrived and 255 new cases for Devon and Cornwall have been added - and with the huge national increase as well, a lot of the cases are backdated, and hopefully with the IT and backlog issues fixed, numbers will reduce tomorrow

44 new cases in Cornwall (7 from Oct 2, 6 from Oct 1, 12 from Sep 30, 11 from Sep 29, 2 from Sep 28 and 25, 1 from Sep 27, 26, 23, 13), 10 in East Devon (3 from Oct 2, 2 from Sep 30, 1 from Oct 1, Sep 29, 28, 25, 23), 4 in North Devon (3 from Oct 2, 1 from Sep 30)....

8 in Mid Devon (3 from Oct 2, 1 from Oct 1, Sep 30, Sep 29, 2 from Sep 28), 7 in South Hams (2 from Sep 30 and 27, 1 from Oct 1, Sep 29, 28), 8 in Torbay (2 from Oct 1 and 2, 1 from Sep 30, 29, 27, 24), 3 in Torridge (1 from Oct 1, Sep 30, 29), 1 in West Devon (Oct 1)

15 in Teignbridge (4 from Oct 2, 5 from Oct 1, 2 from Sep 30, 28, 1 from Oct 3 and Sep 17), 36 in Plymouth (4 from Oct 2, 5 from Oct 1, 6 from Sep 30, 5 from Sep 29, 9 from Sep 28, 3 from Sep 27, 3 from Sep 25, 1 from Sep 17)

Exeter sees 119 new cases added - 29 from Oct 2, 16 from Oct 1, 65 from Sep 30, 2 from Sep 29, 5 from Sep 28, 1 from Sep 25, and 1 from Sep 22. Hospital figures for South West rise from 48 to 54, with 3 people in intensive care (up from 2)

In terms of the Exeter cases, I strongly suspect they are mainly linked to the University (arguably more worrying if they are not as it would show spread to the community). Hope to get answers from DCC/Uni in the morning.

Settle in for a very long update today as another 209 new cases confirmed and 21 new clusters added to the map (although eight drop off) as once again, there is a lot of backdating in the figures which makes knowing what's happening now difficult

26 new cases in Cornwall (2 from Oct 3, 8 from Oct 2, 2 from Oct 1, 3 from Sep 30, 26, 1 from Sep 29, 28, 24, 6 from Sep 25), 11 in East Devon (2 from Oct 3 and Sep 30, 4 from Oct 2, 3 from Oct 1), 1 in Mid Devon (Oct 2), 1 in South Hams (Oct 1), 2 in West Devon (Oct 1, Sep 29)

4 in North Devon (1 from Oct 3 and 1, 2 from Oct 2), 10 in Teignbridge (4 from Oct 2 and 3, 1 from Oct 1 and Sep 30), 3 in Torridge (Sep 25, 26, 30), 10 in Torbay (2 from Oct 1, 2 and 3 and Sep 30, 1 from Sep 26 and 29), 13 in Plymouth (3 from Oct 1 and 2, 2 from Sep 26 and 29...

1 from Oct 3 and 4 and Sep 25), and 128 in Exeter (15 from Oct 3, 40 from Oct 2, 63 from Oct 1, 5 from Sep 30, 2 from Sep 29, 3 from Sep 26). DCC say that the Exeter rise is still largely within the Uni student population and little evidence so far of spread into city communities

MSOA cluster map now covers Sep 25-Oct 1. In Cornwall - 8 new clusters - St Germans & St Mellion, Launceston
Altarnun & Stoke Climsland, Lostwithiel & Penwithick,
Probus & Roseland, Shortlanesend, Chacewater & Carnon Downs, Penryn and St Day & Lanner are added today....

but 7 - Penzance Quay, Falmouth North, Bodmin West
Roche & Goss Moor, Newquay East, Penzance North and
Perranporth & Goonhavern drop off with Sep 24 figures removed. South Molton for Devon also drops off. In Plymouth, Honicknowle & Manadon, Lipson, Ernesettle, Tamerton Foliot..

Mannamead & Hartley and Cattedown & Prince Rock are added. In Torbay, Wellswood is added. And in Devon, Teignmouth South (4), Tavistock (3) and, Cranbrook, Broadclyst & Stoke Canon (5) added. Exeter now have 9 clusters, with St Thomas East (3), Mincinglake & Beacon Heath (3)...

and Heavitree West & Polsloe (3) new. Middlemoor & Sowton (7), St Leonard's (4), Pinhoe & Whipton North (5), St James's Park & Hoopern (23), Central Exeter (31), and Pennsylvania & University (127) complete the cluster map, which is likely to rise again tomorrow when Oct 2 added

From the other data, hospital figures for the South West rise to 61 from 54, and now 4 people in intensive care. NHS 111 for Cornwall down 11 per cent (which never happens on a Monday), Devon up 42 per cent (which is more usual) but still below Wednesday's figures

Here's what DCC had to say about the large number of cases being confirmed over the last few days

devonlive.com/news/devon-new…