Darren 🥚 Profile picture
Trend, value, quality, carry, volatility. Tentmaker (eating vol-targeted Sharpe to fund Christian work). See the pinned tweet for compound return generators.

Oct 3, 2020, 6 tweets

1/ Thread: Bubble stock anecdotes

"Reminder: You can lose money in a good business if you overpay.

"$CSCO doubled revenues and gross profits from 2000-10.

"The stock was flat from 2000-10 with an 86% drawdown. Why? Multiple compression."

2/ DIS


MSFT


MSFT and QCOM

3/ C.P. Huntington defaults on railroad bonds and puts Hetty Green's bank in danger, thereby becoming her mortal enemy:

"The bulk of Hetty's fortune—her securities—was not exposed, but her cash deposit of $550,000 might be in jeopardy."

4/ "Some bankers had vague worries but felt pressure to get CDOs completed before it all ended....

"Charles Prince, CEO of Citigroup, the largest bank in the world, received a $13.2 million cash bonus and $25 million overall pay in 2006."

5/ Thread on the "Go-go" bubble of the 1960s:

"There was a burst of unregistered shares of highly dubious companies marked to absurd valuations. As one bubble burst, a new fad took its place.... an ever more intoxicating speculative momentum."

6/ Thread on the Nifty Fifty era (early 1970s):

"In the prevailing view, these, unlike the small high-fliers of the Go-Go era, would grow forever. They were “safe” at any price.

"By 1972, the Nifty Fifty were trading at an astronomical 80x earnings."

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