2/ "A consensus position can sway our judgments even when it is in error, and even when contrary evidence is in our face.
"Persuasion by a dissenter is more indirect, requires more time, and follows a more subtle choreography of argument.
3/ "Dissent (consensus) broadens (narrows) our thinking. We consider more information and more options, we use multiple strategies in problem-solving, and we think more creatively. On balance, consensus impairs the quality of our decisions, while dissent benefits it.
2/ "Regulatory/accounting laxness are ignored when stocks are climbing.
"Analysts tried to explain how they could disparage a stock in private e-mails while maintaining the highest buy recommendations publicly, even as the companies they recommended hurtled toward bankruptcy.
3/ "Companies used accounting trickery to report strong pro-forma earnings right up to the point of defaulting on obligations for lack of cash. After the crash, we saw a parade of accountants who suddenly seem to have found basic accounting very difficult to understand." (p. 1)
"What experts think matters far less than how they think. We are better off with experts who draw from an eclectic array of traditions and accept ambiguity/contradiction as inevitable features of life." (p. 2) amazon.com/Expert-Politic…
2/ "Forecasting exercises' winners and losers are not clustered along left/right partisan lines.
"There is an inverse relationship between indicators of good judgment and the qualities the media prizes in pundits—the tenacity required to prevail in ideological combat." (p. 2)
3/ "Disagreements hinge on hard-to-refute counterfactual claims about what would have happened if we had taken different policy paths and on moral claims about the types of people we should be—all claims partisans can use to fortify their positions against falsification." (p. 4)
2/ "The collectibles business preyed on all our behavioral fallacies: over-reliance on past performance as a predictor of future returns, inflated concepts of the value of things we own, and our tendency toward movement in herds." (p. 72)
"Search hard for new things to bet on, unrelated to prior bets. Avoid falling into habits.
"Size bets properly. Don't lose so much that you’re taken out of the game; but be willing to bet big for the right gambles." (p. 7)
3/ "Optimizing requires goals and constraints and requires that the two be interchangeable. One way that can happen is if both are measured in money. It also turns out that any time you use the same units for goals and constraints, you create a form of money.
3/ "Biologists had first visualized the nuclei of human cells in 1912 and counted 48 chromosomes, which was duly entered into the textbooks. In 1953, a well-known cytologist even said that “the diploid chromosome number of 48 in man can now be considered as an established fact.”
2/ "I tried to sell, but when the housing market collapsed in 2007, the property’s value fell far below the amount I had borrowed.
"I was ensnared despite being a reporter who had made a career writing about the frenzied and doomed real estate market along Alabama’s beaches.
3/ "I never doubted that it would end poorly. I thought I was at the zoo, though, watching some wild behavior from behind a barricade. As it happened, I was standing in the middle of the jungle." (p. 4)
I don't see this widely discussed, but schools seem pretty far behind in math this year. (Pre-calc students are still learning the unit circle in some cases; tests are open-notes and vulnerable to cheating. AP tests were shortened and not implemented well in 2020.)
Families with money are hiring extra academic help... I doubt that the full extent of this will be seen in test scores or college admission statistics for a while yet.
People will say it's unfair, but it was money down the drain for those families. Definitely a complicated issue
2/ "We employ current information to forecast future returns using the parametric model estimated with prior data. By allowing 𝛼𝑖 and 𝛽𝑖 to be freely estimated parameters, we consider valuable information in the premium mean-reversion speeds, which previous studies ignore."
3/ "CEF fund type classifications are obtained from Morningstar.
"In 2011, the mean market value of equity was $370 million for domestic CEFs, $336 million for foreign CEFs, and $140 million for miscellaneous CEFs."
Can WSB control enough capital to create volatility in the commodity and currency markets?
Interesting: I was called a 'geeza' and unfollowed after posting this poll
There is an interesting movement in politics... what something means no longer seems to be tied to what the author but to the reader. (This leads to a statement being labeled as offensive due listeners' perception rather than the speaker's intent.)
2/ "Interest rates were at near-record highs, strangling new housing construction and making industrial expansion impractical. The dollar was in trouble, worth many billions more than the national gold hoard. One hundred or more Wall Street brokerage firms were near failure.
3/ "In May 1970, an equally-weighted portfolio was worth half of what it would have been worth at the start of 1969.
"The high flyers that had led the market of 1967 and 1968—conglomerates, computer leasers, far-out electronics companies, franchisers—were precipitously down.
Applications might not be as obvious as they seem.
For example, long-dated options have optically high spreads but reduce the need for aggressive vol targeting when it's most expensive to trade the underlying. They also make it possible to rebalance into dislocated assets.
Momentum can become much lower turnover and more tax efficient when rebalanced differently: